Vikings vs. RAMS +10
GIANTS vs. Raiders +15
NINERS vs. Falcons +2.5
Jets vs. DOLPHINS +1.5
Who ya got?
NFL Week 5 Picks
Simmons put his picks at the end of a startingly long mailbag. After making my Yahoo picks I noticed that almost every game this week is basically one favorite versus one underdog (sometimes severe underdog). It's a lopsided week. Here are the games that stood out to me:
Vikings vs. RAMS +10
GIANTS vs. Raiders +15
NINERS vs. Falcons +2.5
Jets vs. DOLPHINS +1.5
Who ya got?
Vikings vs. RAMS +10
GIANTS vs. Raiders +15
NINERS vs. Falcons +2.5
Jets vs. DOLPHINS +1.5
Who ya got?
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By the way Scott, that picture of Mike Singletary is just for you. Or as MP calls him, simply "coach" - way to be a part of the team, MP
ReplyDeleteI like the Vikings and Giants in the first two games because, as Sports Guy put it, "those lines can't be high enough" for me to take two atrocious teams against two very strong teams. He also points out that the Vikings average more points per game than the Rams have total points. Ouch.
I'm not sure how to feel about the Niners game. I think they are better than -2.5 favorites vs. the Falcons, but Atlanta's offense scares me a bit. If Favre doesn't pull off that miracle two weeks ago, we are talking about an undefeated Niners team and that line is probably -6 at least.
The last line confuses me. Why wouldn't the Jets be much more than -1.5 favorites over the Dolphins? Am I missing something?
Haven't looked into the lines yet this week, but I'd to call out that I call him "coach", not MP - although, he is more than welcome to join in the fun; as are you Royce.
ReplyDeleteI hate the fact that blogs have records. I suck.
ReplyDeleteI just realized that Aaron is out of the country - this weekly column just isn't going to be the same without him.
My favorite line, by far, this week is Indy -4. Tennessee sucks - the only reason it's this low is from past games between the two, the Titans showing last year, and the fact that it's in Tennessee. I see this finishing 24-10 Indy, easy.
ReplyDeleteOther lines I like:
SF -2.5 (over Falcons). I agree with your reasoning Royce; this line should be higher, but isn't due to 2 things: 1) the SF/Minny game, and 2) people still don't quite believe in SF since they haven't beaten a legit team yet. This is the week the start believing: 20-10, SF.
Vikings -10.5 (over Rams). AP 14 - 7 Rams. Enough said.
I wish I was as cool as Scotty and started calling him "Coach" first. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteI know they say "Pck" when a game is too close to all, and am I right that "Off" means a line is so high that's it not even worth reporting? If I am right, then I think that this week's OAK-NYG game should have been "Off". I knew it before the game started, I knew it when I turned on the game this morning and it was already 14-0, and I know it now that it's 44-7 with with 2/3 of the 4th quarter left to play.
So, yes, the Giants are very, very good. But JaMarcus Russell is very, very bad. Remember, he's no rookie. He's had practices and games. I think we're ready to call him bad.
"Off" indicates that the game isn't being reported yet, usually due to a key injury (e.g. Eli possibly not playing this past weekend). As soon as all the details are known, the game will come back on, as the Giants did this past weekend - ending up somewhere around -16.5.
ReplyDeleteI feel good about 2 of my picks, but boy was I wrong on the Niners. Their D (especially Clements - supposedly a lock down corner) looked absolutely terrible. I'm ashamed to say I'm a Niners fan this morning...
Scott great call on the Indy-Tenn game; blowout win for Indy.
ReplyDeleteI am 2-for-3 on picks (Giants and Vikings blowout wins, Niners loss) heading into tonight's Jets-Dolphins tilt. I hope I knock this one down too so I can keep my 75% correct picks streak going.
Royce - it looks like your opinion on the opening line for tonight's game (Jets -1.5) was shared by much of the betting world. That line has moved to Jets -3.5, a solid shift in only a couple of days.
ReplyDeleteI was a bit torn on Friday, but would definitely choose the Dolphins +3.5 on the current line; seems to me that Miami will be able run the ball efficiently on the Jets, and that Sanchez will have another poor night. He's looked decent against two bad teams (Houston, Tennessee) and one legit team (NE, although he wasn't asked to do much - only 22 attempts), and downright horrible against one good defense (Saints). I'd put the Dolphins D closer to the Saints than the Houston franchise (Oilers, Titans, Texans).
Ok well I've got Jets -1.5, you've got Dolpins +3.5 - we'll see how the game ends up
ReplyDeleteDamn, well good job Dolphins. That was a great 4th quarter either way
ReplyDeleteSure as hell was...
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, I'd most likely take the Jets +3.5 if it were in NY/NJ. I think these two teams are relatively even, with the Dolphins possibly being the slightly better team. Look at the first 3 teams they played (and where): @ ATL, IND, @ SD. Those are three very difficult games.
If Chad Henne continues to make plays to keep drives alive, I like Miami a LOT more than I did before. I remember watching them dismantle Indy with their running game, but when Peyton dissected them on his game-winning drive the Dolphins had no answer even though they had 4 minutes on the clock to drive for a touchdown. Pennington simply couldn't come up with any big plays on 3rd and long. If Henne can convert those, they would have a solid offense.
ReplyDeletePoint of order, Scotty. While the Oilers & Titans comprise the Houston franchise, the Texans are a completely independent franchise & organ-i-zation (said in a Canadian accent for emphasis). See: Earl Campbell's #34 in the Titans Wall of Fame at their stadium.
ReplyDelete