So normally, the NFL makes an effort to not have the two New York teams play at different times to maximize TV ratings in the largest TV market in the US. This Sunday, the Jets were scheduled for the early game and the Giants @ Philadelphia was scheduled for the 4:15ET time slot. However, as Peter King points out, since the Phillies are in the World Series the Eagles game would be ending 30 minutes before the start of the Phillies game, just across the street, putting 130,00 drunk Philadelphians in the same spot going opposite directions. Apparently, the Philadelphia police force wasn't large enough to handle this, the the NFL was nice and moved the Eagles game to the early time slot. What does this mean for you? Now Fox is able to put the Packers-Vikings game (aka, the Brett Favre Indecision Bowl) on nearly every home in America (except for Arizona and the Carolinas). So from 1:00PT we will bringing you live commentary on both the Chargers-Raiders game (full disclosure: two of us grew up in San Diego and are full-fledged Charger homers) on CBS and the Packers-Vikings game on Fox. Here are a few things to consider: The Chargers are favored by 16.5 and the Packers are favored by 3. Who you got? Who will have more passing yards, Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre? SD-Oak over/under is 42.5, GB-Min o/u is 48. First half: SD -10, o/u 21, GB -3, o/u 23.5. Here are a few other prop bets. Aaron Rodgers -1.5 more completions vs. Brett Favre.
I specifically avoided both these games in my five picks for the week because I think Vegas made the right lines here. I'll pick San Diego -16.5 and Minnesota +3, but not with much confidence. Regarding the Vikings game, I think either team can win this game, and there is a good chance that even if the Packers win, it won't be by more than 3 points. So this feels like the more logical, calculated pick.
ReplyDeleteI'll go under 48, I'll say Aaron Rodgers throws for more yards than Brett Favre. Min +3 for the first half, over 23.5.
SD-Oak over 42.5, first half Oak +10, under 21.
Aaron, I'm drowning under the weight of your gambling-based analyses. I will say this to start, though: say you spend 15 years with a girl. She provides you with the best times of your life and constantly tells you that you're the only one she'll ever be with. One day, she breaks up with you. She spends a year dating skeezy guys and crashes & burns. Then, one day further on down the line, you hear that she is happy again - but is now dating your mortal enemy. Worse, she has invited herself and her new, douchebag boyfriend to your post-Halloween Party. Plus, she says that this new guy is better than you ever were. Any normal person slams the door in her face and sends her on her merry way, right? My point: I could not be more intrigued by the reception that Benedict Favre will get at Lambeau this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteI also demand that we reveal our fantasy biases - Greg Jennings, Bernard Berrian, and Antonio Gates are on my fantasy team. What about you guys?
ReplyDeleteMik, I could not be more proud of your dead-on imitation of Simmons' writing style right there. Sports Guy will now light himself on fire.
Aaron, I'll take over on the 48 and under on the 42.5, Rodgers over Favre, and the favored teams (with their -points) in both cases. I wouldn't bet the rest.
Weird prop bet: if I gave you a choice of who would have the most receiving yards on the Packers, Greg Jennings or any other player, who would you take? What should the odds be for that bet?
I meant that as Jennings vs. the field... do you take the field or Jennings?
ReplyDeleteThe field. They interviewed Donald Driver on SportsCenter this week. He looked fired up. Continuing my Favre-Saga-as-dating analogy, Driver today has the fantasy potential of your beefy best friend, who would love nothing more than to beat the living crap out of New Douchebag Boyfriend. I have the Packers' Grant, and will be pretty dependent on his performance this week. But I'm still pulling for the Pack (words I never, ever thought I'd say) because I already didn't like Fav-ruh - and THEN he stabbed the only city that ever loved him in the front.
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ReplyDeleteAnd the Chargers are on the board! I don't think anyone will be surprised by how quickly that happened - but don't you think the AFC West is sometimes like College Football, where the only way the Chargers can get the Raiders to play in San Diego is to give them a ton of money?
ReplyDeleteThis is the first time I've heard Thom Brenneman on Fox this season, as the Niners always get assigned the worst possible play-calling combo. His pitch automatically makes more excited about football - as does the cascade of boos from the Lambeau faithful as Favre takes the field. I don't care if Favre wins 10 Super Bowls in Minnesota, there is no undoing a decimated legacy.
ReplyDeleteSomething That Needs to be Invented: a function on TV that notifies you when something you were watching on another channel has come back from commercial. I switched from MIN-GB at the commercial to check in on OAK-SD, and only just made it back to GB in time to see the next play start. Help me out, TV!
ReplyDeletePS: I also have All Day in fantasy. Go both run games! And Rodgers already has better protection today than he did in Minnesota.
Initial observations on the Packers: the O-line is doing a great job in pass protection (Rodgers hasn't taken advantage of it) and the defensive front seven is stopping the run. Both good signs for Green Bay. Bad signs for my pick. (that fumble didn't help)
ReplyDeleteMy fantasy bias: go Ryan Grant and Percy Harvin. Everyone else suck in case you are on my opponents fantasy team.
ReplyDeleteAgreed (Agreed), and Agreed. And that Favre Fumble was Karma wearing a Packers Cheesehead. Too bad a penalty helped Minny get on the board. Yet another reason to cheer for GB: two, count em, two UCLA Alums in the Linebacker corps. Go (0-for-the-Pac-10) Bruins!
ReplyDeleteYou know my dog is named Karma, right?
ReplyDeleteI did, in fact.
ReplyDeleteI hope that, given the name, he (she?) is cheering against Benedict Brett today. Speaking of dogs (cover your ears, Karma), remember that Michael Vick Experience commercial, where the kid put on the suit and was Michael Vick for a few harrowing seconds? What does Vick say at the end of that commercial? "Now, that's what I call a ___________" Lil help!
Your dog is named Karma? Why did you pick that name?
ReplyDelete...a ride?
Well if we aver have three dogs, they will be Chance, Fate, and Karma... Karma sounded the coolest and gets the most compliments. Karma is cheering for a Chargers blowout, because in Chargers and Bruins dominant wins daddy pays more attention to her and throws the toys more often.
ReplyDeleteBefore the season an old co-worker called to get my opinion on Vincent Jackson before his fantasy draft. I said he'd make a solid #2, 70-80 catches, maybe 1000 yards 8 TDs or so. Now he's closing in on top 5 WR. Where does he finish in terms of fantasy rankings of WR?
ReplyDeleteWhat are you drinking? I am enjoying a Stone Ruination IPA.
ReplyDeleteTomlinson looked awesome on that TD run! That made my day (as long as the Chargers win). Classic Tomlinson TD (you know, the vintage Tomlinson, not the one who has looked old, slow, and the opposite of agile, the past couple years. Watching the replay, he didn't look fast, but had vision and agility.
ReplyDeleteCan Russell throw an interception with so little time left in the first half?
ReplyDeleteI spent too much time bragging about my dominance picking games ATS. I went 3-5 this morning. I got Houston, Dallas, and St. Louis... that's it.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone like the coincidence that both MLB and NFL have New York @ Philadelphia?
ReplyDeleteI personally hate it, bit that's because I've hated the Yankees since the 1998 World Series. I also dislike Eli Manning because of the 2004 draft, but not as much as I hate the Yankees.
ReplyDeleteIt was nice to see a little vintage LT - I was about to put out an APB! Just kidding. Unfortunately for us and our 2-3 fans, neither of these games look like they will be staying close for very long. GB has emptied several chambers into each foot, and Minny has the best downhill runner in the game with a 2-TD cushion to start the 2nd half.
ReplyDeleteAnd San Diego would have a harder time closing out the 2nd half of their game against Al Davis' reanimated corpse.
MLB Aside: do we think Philly holds serve tonight or can the Yanks put another nail in the coffin?
Michael Vick: Now that's not in the playbook, but it should be.
ReplyDeleteNike Gridiron - Michael Vick Experience
I think it's a little more interesting to see if the Chargers get to that 17 point lead to cover.
ReplyDeleteI say Philly wins at home, especially (as Simmons points out) with the Eagles dominating the Giants.
1st half: SD led by 11, 31 total points, Min led by 14, 20 total.
ReplyDeleteI went 1-3. Today is a really bad day for me, pretend gambling wise.
Does it feel like a weird fantasy day today? It feels like 80 points is enough to win.
ReplyDeleteIt feels like a weird football day. One undefeated team got rolled, the Colts won without Pey throwing a TD, and Brett Favre rolled into Lambeau as a Viking.
ReplyDeleteWill that carry over to tonight's Game 4? Will we see something like 11 HRs or a perfect game?
Good find on the Vick commercial. How hard do you think Nike worked to scrub that from the Internets? Touchdown, Bruuuuuuu-ins - I mean Packers! Go Spencer, do that Leap!
Another UCLA Bruin scored a TD! Did he ever play TE at UCLA? Wasn't he just a LB?
ReplyDeleteSpencer Havner, that is.
ReplyDeleteYes some weeks are fantasy avalanches and some days are duds, like today.
ReplyDeleteApparently the guy who just scored for Green Bay went to UCLA. Go Bruins
What have you been spending all your time watching? The GB-Minn game has been less ugly.
We also have to talk about something - how come the quality of the TV feed always looks slightly worse on CBS games? I don't know if it's the production or the quality or just my imagination, but Fox always looks a little better. Am I making this up?
Wow I need to type shorter comments. In the time it took me to respond to Aaron's fantasy comment, there were three subsequent comments by two different people.
ReplyDeleteHoly crap that was a terrible attempt at a reception by Peterson. He may be a stud, but he's an awful receiver
ReplyDeleteOr does he mainly play LB for the Packers and plays a Mike Vrabel-like role in the goal line?
ReplyDeleteRoyce, I agree with you that other than the 'football robot' I think Fox has a much better production value than CBS. It feels cleaner and more interesting.
ReplyDeleteIsn't the announcer describing "the challenge of the Raiders pass rush" a bit of a stretch?
ReplyDeleteYou know, this guy
ReplyDeleteRodgers is looking good on this drive.
ReplyDeleteWow did you see that gamebreak? 220 yards rushing for Chris Johnson, 170 yards rushing for MJD in the same game
ReplyDeleteThat tackle on Antonio Gates was Legadu Naanee's fault. He brought an extra defender over towards Gates. He should have stopped and blocked his guy because Gates had his guy beaten.
ReplyDeleteTD Bruins again!
ReplyDeleteYeah Rodgers looked very good on that drive. Can we officially refer to a random non-skill player getting a TD as a Vrabel?
Aaron I was just going to mention that. If I got hit like Gates got hit right there, there is an 87% chance it would kill me on the spot
ReplyDeleteVintage LT would have scored there.
ReplyDeleteSpencer Havner, 2 catches, 21 yards, 2 TDs.
ReplyDeleteYup, any non-offensive player scoring a TD can be a Vrabel from here on out. And I don't remember him playing anything but LB at UCLA. Both these games just got verrrrry interesting...I like.
ReplyDeleteAaron that fade route by the Chargers looked like obvious PI to me. Am I wrong?
ReplyDeleteAlso was that Jackson's fault for not going up higher and earlier to get that ball? Why did he try to cradle it in vs. a shorter defender?
On the replay, I saw that Huff hit Jackson early, but if I'm reffing that game live, I make the same non-call. Jackson needs to get his hands above his head to catch that one. He's 6'5", Huff is 6'1"
ReplyDeleteChargers field goal for a 24-16 lead
ReplyDeleteChances of us covering appear minimal at this point
Royce's commercial!!!!
ReplyDeleteWhat's my commercial? Jack in the Box prisoner cousin?
ReplyDelete"I really miss shower curtains"
Notice I added my comment at the same minute that Royce asked those questions. We are definitely on the same page here.
ReplyDeleteGoal line situation with the Vikes threatening, already up 24-20. The Packers call a timeout.
ReplyDeleteSomeone please explain how bad things have to look to you as a defense where you would use one of your team's 2nd half timeouts. Do you really think the offense has THAT much better a chance of scoring if you don't call the timeout?
Yes, the commercial you wrote a blog Post about.
ReplyDeleteSo, is there anything Jamarcus Russell can do well? In light of his poor time management, I feel the only thing he can do well is throw a football 80 yards from his knees.
ReplyDeleteHe can throw a football really far. He's also significantly larger than your average human being. Yes those are both backhanded compliments.
ReplyDeleteWe might have to do a liveblog just for commercials. Is there any movie trailer you've seen recently that you want to see less than 2012? It leads my list - at least until Avatar comes out.
ReplyDeleteBy the way the Vikes scored anyway after that GB timeout for a 31-20 lead. Great work wasting that timeout, GB defense.
ReplyDeleteI feel the complete opposite about The Men Who Stare At Goats.
ReplyDeleteDang it Ryan Grant! That was two fantasy points!
ReplyDeleteGreg Jennings just made one of the most impressive catches I've ever seen. TD GB.
ReplyDeleteRyan Grant did the exact opposite on the ensuing 2pt conversion screen play.
I flipped over just in time to see the replay of two Raiders WR running into each other.
ReplyDeleteBest moment of the day hahaha
ReplyDeleteDid you see the HTC commercial? I have no idea what their phone is exactly, but the commercial was phenomenal. Amazing story telling in a very short space.
Video? Youtube?
ReplyDeleteYou know what, screw my picks (this is why I don't bet real money...that often). Let's go Green Bay!!! Come on Packers!! Aaron Rodgers!!
ReplyDeleteIt was this commercial
ReplyDeleteApparently it is one of the new Android phones
I'm older than Aaron Rodgers, so I can say he was named after me.
ReplyDeleteI totally disagree with that roughing the passer penalty. Great play by Rodgers though.
ReplyDeleteAssuming GB can score here, how much time is too much left on the clock? Over 2 minutes?
Royce, have you been to Petco Park when Kevin Kouzmanoff comes to bat? They all cheer "Koooooooooouz" and it sounds a lot like Lambeau Field yelling "Kuuuuuuuuhn!"
ReplyDeleteNo I haven't heard that, but I like it
ReplyDeleteThey need to fix how screen passes are treated. Peterson catching the ball behind the line of scrimmage then running downfield should not give Brett Favre 40 passing yards.
It's a forward pass. Why shouldn't it count?
ReplyDeleteIt just hit me - Aaron Rodgers looks just like BJ Novak from the office. That is now #2 in the celeb-athlete look alike list behind Mike Tomlin and Omar Epps
ReplyDeleteIt's not that it shouldn't count, but the QB does essentially nothing on the play. It's another form of a handoff. It just happens to travel forward in the air for two feet before the RB gets it.
ReplyDeleteRight now I feel like Rodgers is making the right throws, but his receivers aren't trying hard enough...or their not fast enough. Rodgers is throwing to his guy where the defense can't get it and his receivers aren't making the kind of catch professional receivers should try to make.
ReplyDeleteNothing in these games made me say wow. I feel like we picked the wrong NFL week to go on an epic Comment craze.
ReplyDeleteHas there ever been an NFL came where both the offense, special teams, & defense all came up fatally short in such a short time span? Because that's what happened in Green Bay. First, Ryan Grant drops a sure-fire 2-pointer. Then Percy does his thing. THEN, to top off the turd sandwich, Green Bay's offense does zilch on the biggest stop of the game (the timeout you guys discussed). Boo, Green Bay. BOO. You had your chance to earn my support today; never again.
ReplyDeleteAt least the Raiders could only really blame Russell for coming up short. In the end, the better team won both games, which never really leaves you feeling that excited, right?
LET'S GO PHILS! Love the rally rags.
Well the Vikes-Pack game had potential, but apparently Rodgers' WRs let him down.
ReplyDeleteI feel strongly that we should do this again, I enjoyed it a lot. Maybe for a playoff weekend. Or also for an NBA or college basketball game.
In the future, having just one game to focus on would make things less frenetic also.