Redskins (-7.5) over Bucs
Giants (-9.0) over Chiefs
Saints (-7.0) over Jets
Who you got?
NFL Week 4 Picks
Another week in the NFL means another week of Bill Simmons NFL picks and us getting to analyze the good games. He also includes his power rankings this week - I disagree that New Orleans is a contender already, they've hardly played anyone. Anyway, after our success last week we are on a roll with the lines. What games stand out to you this week? Mine are:
Redskins (-7.5) over Bucs
Giants (-9.0) over Chiefs
Saints (-7.0) over Jets
Who you got?
Redskins (-7.5) over Bucs
Giants (-9.0) over Chiefs
Saints (-7.0) over Jets
Who you got?
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My thoughts on those 3 games:
ReplyDelete- the Redskins and Bucs are both terrible... does Washington really deserve to be more than a touchdown favorite vs. anybody? THEY JUST LOST TO THE LIONS
- conversely, the Chiefs are bad and the Giants are very good, so shouldn't they smash KC?
- I expect the Jets to flat-out beat the Saints, and I think that line is only so high because people are afraid NO scores 45
There is no way in hell the Redskins are 7 points better than anyone in the NFL this year.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants are good, but they don't really blow teams out.
I am also picking the Jets, but a rookie QB trying to get into a shootout on the road...I'm not going to make it one of my official picks. It's one of those weird games where I take too much pleasure picking the favorite to win the game outright, but picking the underdog to cover, and being right. I did that with the Vikings and the 49ers last week. I actually picked Vikings to win, 49ers to cover.
You can see evidence here and here.
ReplyDeleteOk, my official picks this week are:
ReplyDeleteBengals -5.5 over Browns
Bucs +7 over Redskins
Houston -9 over Oakland
San Diego +6.5 over Pittsburgh
Indianapolis -10.5 over Seattle
Dallas -3 over Denver
The Bengals aren't bad and the Browns are really bad. In a fantasy league I have Philadelphia's defense, which is on a bye, so I dropped Philly and picked up Cincy, specifically because I'm hoping for three interceptions.
ReplyDeleteThe Bucs are bad and the Redskins are bad. When they're at the same level, either could win, neither wins by 7.
Houston can score lots of points. Jamarcus Russel is slow and innaccurate. He might be good in a pass, punt, and kick competition.
San Diego Pittsburgh just feels close. Neither team runs the ball well and either team can win by a field goal late. Nothing will surprise me in this game, which translates to I really don't know what will happen. 10-7 on a sloppy field? Sure. 35-31 as Tomlinson and Sproles each score two TDs? Sure.
Indy has Peyton Manning. Seattle is starting Seneca Wallace. I'm surprised the line isn't higher.
I am the least confident in Dallas among these five games. Denver has only allowed 16 points to the Bengals, Browns, and Raiders. The Cowboys may double that. I think overall talent carries the Cowboys in this one.
Yes, I believed you about last week's picks
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't put money on the Skins/Bucs game (hate trusting either awful team) or the Saints/Jets game (too scary to pick)
My official 'money' picks would be:
NY Giants -9
Houston -9
Jacksonville +3
I agree with you on the Bengals and I'm adding them to my picks at -5.5
ReplyDeleteIf you think anything can happen in the Chargers/Steelers game, would you still bet on it? I can see things going any number of ways in that one.
I feel like Dallas should beat Denver by way more than 3, but for whatever reason I can't bring myself to trust them. Can Denver be run on or not? Cause Romo isn't doing so great in the air game
My picks this week are (all Bodog lines from this morning):
ReplyDeleteRaiders +9.5: I'm not the biggest fan of this pick, but I see Asomugha shutting down Johnson, and the Raiders being able to run against the worst rushing defense in the league
Giants -9: I think Eli picks them apart trying to on-up Pey Pey
Bengals -6.5: I'll try not to over-correct with this pick after saying I couldn't imagine the Ravens beating the Browns by 2 TDs last week. The Browns just look pathetic, and I think Palmer can manage the Bengals (all he really can do right now) to a 24-10 win.
That should have read: "one-up Pey Pey"...
ReplyDeleteRandom aside - does it bother anyone else that Simmons openly referred to last week's Patriots column as "the best Reverse Jinx column of my career"? I feel like he's openly giving me the middle finger by saying "I'm writing this even though 80% of my readers won't find it interesting because I'm being self-indulgent"
ReplyDeleteWell, I feel like this falls under the same vibe we have discussed. He no longer writes from the point of view of a random fan. Now, he's special and influential and writes that way.
ReplyDeleteIf your post next week contains another goofy Chargers picture, I'm going to start posting my own that may or may not include the following:
ReplyDeleteI don't know who this is, but he's sad...
Ok, I recognized both players pictured immediately after looking at that picture. I'm not going to say, because it's a test - Aaron, do you recognize those two?
ReplyDeleteAnd by the way there is nothing goofy about that. Plus I owed you one after you compared me to the doing it wrong failure people...
ReplyDeleteWhat kind of picture do you want in next week's picks post? (and not the one you linked)
Haha - I was rather proud of that one...
ReplyDeleteI sure do recognize Eric Parker and Keenan McCardell.
ReplyDelete