FIWK the NFL: Thursday Quick Pick Week 11

Indianapolis at TENNESSEE -3.0
It looks like Jake Locker is out for the season, so I have no idea why Tennessee is only getting 3.  Maybe it's because the Colts got their doors absolutely blown off by the Rams last week?  Aaron - do you have an explanation for that?  I still have no idea whatsoever how that happened.  I remain confused but I'm sticking with the Colts to beat the Titans' backup QB.

FIWK the NFL: Week 10 Picks

I don't have much to say about the lines this week, so I'm just going to highlight those that interest me.  And, sorry Aaron, but a lot of point lines have moved significantly during the week, so I'm going to point those out.

FIWK the NFL: Week 9 Picks

Week 9 picks are in the bag!  How many incorrect 'locks' am I going to decide upon this week...

FIWK the NFL: Thursday Quick Pick Week 9

Cincinnati at MIAMI -2.5
I kind of like this Cincy team.  Okay so Andy Dalton isn't the league's best QB, but he might be average and that might be enough with guys like AJ Green to throw to.  Their defense is really good (league's 4th-best by DVOA) so an average or above-average offense should help them win this.  Meanwhile I don't know what I'm getting from Miami, they confound and confuse me.  What's your take on Miami?

For what it's worth, Football Outsiders has Cincy's DVOA at +22% (4th best) and Miami's at -10% (22nd in the league).  So that's a big disparity, probably worth the less-than-2-FGs in the spread here.

FIWK the NFL: Week 8 Quick Picks

No time for commentary!  Go go go!

Dallas at DETROIT +3.0

KANSAS CITY vs. Cleveland -7.5

NEW ENGLAND vs. Miami -6.5

Buffalo at NEW ORLEANS +11.0

PHILADELPHIA vs. ny giants -5.5

San Francisco at JACKSONVILLE -16.5

CINCINNATI vs. ny jets -6.5

OAKLAND vs. Pittsburgh +2.5

DENVER vs. Washington -12.5

ARIZONA vs. Atlanta -2.5

Green Bay at MINNESOTA -9.5

ST LOUIS vs. Seattle +11.0

FIWK the NFL: Week 7 Picks

This week I've got a goal:  at least one joke for every game.  This is going to be a comedy bloodbath.

Week 7 picks here we go!

FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick: Week 7

A better matchup on paper this week.... but the Thursday games have sucked:

Seattle at ARIZONA -6.5

Seattle's not amazing on the road, but the half-point makes me feel more comfortable.  That being said, Seattle has a DVOA of +34%, while Arizona's DVOA is -2%, so I feel on solid ground with this one.  This ought to be a matchup of two good defenses and not as good offenses.  That fact makes me nervous about the 7 points.... can Seattle score enough to exceed that?  We'll see.

Actually I've just talked myself back into this game being ugly just like every other Thursday game.  Ugh.  Bet on: "ME PLAYING GRAND THEFT AUTO 5 vs. Me watching this game -10.5".  Sneaky fantasy question here.... how good is Russell Wilson actually?  He's not amazing on my fantasy team.  But if he ever gets some good receivers, like say Percy Harvin If He Stays Healthy, could he vault into an elite type QB?  Or is his ceiling just 'fantastic low-stat game winner'?

FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick - Week 5

Quick pick for Thursday night, elongated picks to follow closer to the weekend...


CLEVELAND vs. Buffalo -4.0
It feels like Cleveland should be favored by more than 4 pts at home?  After two solid weeks of making fun of Brian Hoyer, I feel like I have to take him seriously now.  It's like Cousin Sal said.... if we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times - when in doubt, trade away your best player and put in your 3rd string QB.  Always works.  Meanwhile Buffalo has been inconsistent (at best) away from home... right?

It looks like the DVOA ratings have been updated to adjust for opponents now... and Buffalo actually comes out ahead at +9.4%, while Cleveland is down at -12.1%.  Is this a big enough gap to scare me off?  Let's just say I won't be betting this game.  But part of Cleveland's rating includes the pre-Hoyer era, which really is akin to evaluating the Broncos based on the pre-Manning era.  So I'm sticking with Cleveland!

FIWK The NFL - Week 4 Picks

Nailed the SF -3.0 pick on Thurs night.  Now running through the weekend's games...

FIWK NFL Thursday Pick - Week 4

A quick pick for the Rams vs. Niners game...

San Francisco at ST. LOUIS -3.0
This is a pick based primarily on the concept that the Niners are going to right the ship.  If they lose this game, against what is certainly a decent Rams team, they are going to be in a full-on tailspin.  So this is purely an emotional call on my part - I think they are too good to fall into a crisis this early in the season.

That being said, they have real issues throwing the ball with all the injuries now.  So if they do lose, it's safe to say their expectations for the year are seriously downgraded.  What's your pick?

FIWK Thursday NFL Quick Pick - Week 3

Getting this up for the Thursday game early, then blowing out a bigger list prior to the weekend's games...

PHILADELPHIA vs. Kansas City -3.0
This is an interesting game because Kansas City is a pretty good team (and way better than last year... new QB + coach will do that).  As a Chargers fan, I wish they weren't, but unfortunately they make me really scared in the division.  That being said, I think San Diego is pretty good too and their win over the Eagles isn't exactly a referendum on the Eagles sucking.

Can Kansas City play the same kind of ball possession football that San Diego used to beat Philly?  With Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, and solid receivers, you'd think they can eat up some clock and pick up first downs.  And their defense is pretty good.

All that being said, I still think Philadelphia is really good, and since they're at home I feel comfortable taking them as a field goal favorites.  But it's not a game I'd feel comfortable putting money on.

How about you guys?

FIWK the NFL Weekly Lines - Week 1

NFL Season starts tonight!  Get pumped people!  The Chargers still aren't mathematically eliminated from playoff contention!

FIWK NFL Preview via Grantland - Prop Bets from Barnwell and Mays

As discussed on the Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays Grantland NFL Preview Podcast series, here are player props and their picks.  Further discussion at the bottom.

Ephraim Salaam standing in for Bill Barnwell in this photo

FIWK NFL Season Preview - The Simmons/Sal NFL Over/Under Picks

Here's a quick overview of the season over/under picks that Sal and Simmons did on their podcast this week.  They also put up some videos of this session, which I always enjoy.  And a bonus Joe House sighting!  It's like Christmas in my heart.

FIWK the NBA - Outperformers vs. Underperformers

It's NBA mid season recap time!  Who has destroyed expectations?  Who has destroyed fantasy seasons?  Let's investigate.  (Spoiler: I am going to say LARRY SANDERS! a lot.)

LARRY SANDERS!

EPL or BPL? Striker watch

Changes have been happening in the EPL (BPL).  The transfer deadline finished and Fulham was the fulcrum for two of the most interesting changes from a fantasy perspective: they sent striker Dembele and midfielder Dempsey to Tottenham, and they picked up Berbatov from Man U to play striker for them.  Additionally, the top teams' striker situations are changing: Aguero and Rooney are coming back from injury, changing the outlook for all of the Man City and Man United strikers.

EPL or BPL? An American returns to the other fantasy football

You're not gonna believe this, but the English (Barclays?) Premier League season starts tomorrow, Saturday, the 18th of August. And I thought the NBA season was long. This means it is time to get back into the ESPN Premier Fantasy game that we played last year. I feel much more prepared this time. There are a couple important things to note going into the season.

FIWK the NBA: It's raining young guards

In reviewing the FIWK draft primer at the halfway point of the season, I always find it helpful to look at who has achieved expectations and who has underperformed so far. Without question, the standout performers have been mostly young guards. In fact, the overall recommendation to ‘draft young’ has been a winner. Among those listed, here are the young players outperforming draft position:

Ty Lawson (especially before injury); DeMarcus Cousins (still insane though); Mike Conley; Greg Monroe; James Harden; Marcus Thornton; DeAndre Jordan; Jeff Teague; Paul George; Kyle Lowry; Marcin Gortat; Roy Hibbert; Jarrett Jack

And in the interest of fairness, here are the duds from my list:

Tyreke Evans (started slow, playing better now); Serge Ibaka (same as Evans); JaVale McGee (not terrible, but not a big jump); Toney Douglas; JJ Barea; Ty Thomas; Landry Fields … and that’s about it. Seriously, most of the young dudes have been balling.

FIWK the NBA: Fantasy basketball time!

[note: this article was written before Christmas Day but I was unable to post until now... the strategies herein still apply however]

Drafting a fantasy NBA squad is like trying to assemble a team of Action Movie All-Stars out of the cast of Hollywood actors. Some are better suited for the all-offense role, others are legitimately good actors who aren’t great holding a gun.

If you were drafting the Action Movie All-Stars, Jason Statham would be a top pick. Awesome in Crank, Transporter, etc. Probably not going to carry you to an Oscar as a lead man, however. Bruce Willis gets you a little closer; amazing in Die Hard, has a slightly funny side, can be dramatic in Pulp Fiction for instance. Viggo Mortensen is even more of a good actor/great action guy mix. Denzel Washington: the total package. Great in action movies like Man on Fire and Book of Eli, an amazing all-around actor, he can do it all.

BPL or EPL? Filling out your lineup

After the Rooney scratch last week, I've become hyper sensitive to unexpected injuries taking a toll on our players. Fantasy NFL owners of Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning know all too well how injuries can drastically change your fantasy team. In the vein of using your bench of effectively, make sure that you are actively checking the Guardian Squad Sheets the night before game day. As of right now they and other fantasy sources are saying that both Rooney and Chicharito are going to play for Man United tomorrow.

That being said, I'm skittish enough about their injuries to yank my captaincy from Rooney. I'll be giving it to either Silva or Aguero since Man City faces hapless Blackburn this week. This is going to explode in my face when Rooney has 4 more goals against Norwich this weekend. I'm not quite ready to go 3-5-2 out of striker-injury fear though.