I kind of like this Cincy team. Okay so Andy Dalton isn't the league's best QB, but he might be average and that might be enough with guys like AJ Green to throw to. Their defense is really good (league's 4th-best by DVOA) so an average or above-average offense should help them win this. Meanwhile I don't know what I'm getting from Miami, they confound and confuse me. What's your take on Miami?
For what it's worth, Football Outsiders has Cincy's DVOA at +22% (4th best) and Miami's at -10% (22nd in the league). So that's a big disparity, probably worth the less-than-2-FGs in the spread here.
You know my pick here and here.
ReplyDeleteOn a neutral field the Bengals would be favored by 7. Home field advantage isn't 4.5 points. I'm also putting $33 on Cincy -2.5.
ReplyDeleteAs Chargers fans we really need the Dolphins to lose.
ReplyDeleteThanks for pooping the bed Andy Dalton. Thanks for that
ReplyDeleteTurns out my photo above was somewhat prescient! Not that it helped my pick either... at least I didn't bet it?
ReplyDeleteBtw what's the point of the vig if everyone is just adding 10% to their bets to try to get to round numbers? Is that helping anybody? You suck Scooter.
Uh - the vig is a real thing. We don't live in a world where bets are free Royce.
ReplyDeleteIf we were betting against each other...
ReplyDeleteThis weekend I'll bet
$55 on SD -1
$44 on KC -3, Indy -2.5
$33 on NO -6
$22 on StL +3, Car -7.5, NE -6.5