Underdog Spread
@Cleveland X vs 
Buffalo 3.5
vs  X New Orleans 0
vs  X New England 1
@Green Bay X vs 
Detroit 7
Kansas City X vs 
@Tennessee 2.5
Seattle X vs 
@Indianapolis 2.5
@St. Louis
vs  X Jacksonville 11.5
vs  X Baltimore 3
@New York (NYG)
vs  X Philadelphia 2
Carolina X vs 
@Arizona 2
Denver X vs 
@Dallas 7.5
@San Francisco X vs 
Houston 6.5
San Diego X vs 
@Oakland 4.5
vs  X New York (NYJ) 10


  1. $55 on Carolina -2, Green Bay -7

    $44 on Seattle -2.5

    $33 on New Orleans, New England +1, Jacksonville +11.5

  2. I also realllllly wanted to take the jags but that's a hard sell without convincing data to backup the pick

  3. $30 on NO pick em, $30 on NE +1, $30 on KC -2.5, $50 on Seattle -2.5, and $50 on SF -6.5.

    I'm excited for the games this week. Also like Scott I wanted to take all the points with Jax, but I just couldn't feel good about relying on that total crap team.

  4. Good thing you didn't take the Jags. Man they are so bad.

  5. Where's the like button? Royce wins the comment throwdown title belt that I just made up. Yes, we'll be following Grantland's Quarterback Championship Belt concept.

  6. I'm going to take this time to put $330 on the Jaguars +28 before the line moves.

    Maybe it moves a lot and I hedge for a middle.

  7. FYI: they're currently 0-4 ATS, and you've already lost $143 on them in 3 previous bets.


    The quantification of Aaron's losings on the league's worst team really slayed me. Serious question - do you feel comfortable getting 28 points and taking the Jags? This is a team that could lose 52-3 and nobody would even blink. I wouldn't feel comfortable even a little bit.

  9. I'm in your boat Royce. Demasiado Puntos? Sure, probably. But how could you go home at night and sleep knowing your $$ is on that turd pile?

  10. It's the idea that teams in the NFL aren't that far apart. I would likely take any NFL team +28 vs. any NFL team. It's the idea that this is a line put up by Vegas to try to get action on both sides. And the success of the Broncos and already being a public team inflates their lines a little more. They have already shown they will pull Peyton in the 4th quarter if they are up big. And if the line moves down to 24 or so, I might go for a middle.

  11. What's the opposite of demasiados puntos? It should be like insuficientes puntos, but for some flair I am going with the German: unzureichend punkte.

    (important note: I have no idea if that's right, it's just what Google told me)

    That's how I feel about some of these lines. Sure it's a lot of points; just not enough points to make me feel good about it.

  12. I don't think it's a lock by any means, but I think I have about a 70% chance of covering +28.

  13. This screams as a game to stay away from. SCREAMS!

    Here's a fun Chad Millman article just on this line & how the books have been thinking about it for a a few weeks.