NFL Week 5: THERE'S NO TIME!!


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Underdog Spread
@Cleveland X vs 
Buffalo 3.5
@Chicago
vs  X New Orleans 0
@Cincinnati
vs  X New England 1
@Green Bay X vs 
Detroit 7
Kansas City X vs 
@Tennessee 2.5
Seattle X vs 
@Indianapolis 2.5
@St. Louis
vs  X Jacksonville 11.5
@Miami
vs  X Baltimore 3
@New York (NYG)
vs  X Philadelphia 2
Carolina X vs 
@Arizona 2
Denver X vs 
@Dallas 7.5
@San Francisco X vs 
Houston 6.5
San Diego X vs 
@Oakland 4.5
@Atlanta
vs  X New York (NYJ) 10
Posted by Aaron at 10/06/2013 09:22:00 AM

16 comments:

  1. AaronOctober 6, 2013 at 9:30 AM

    $55 on Carolina -2, Green Bay -7

    $44 on Seattle -2.5

    $33 on New Orleans, New England +1, Jacksonville +11.5

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  2. ScottOctober 6, 2013 at 9:35 AM

    $44 on NO, $22 on NYJ

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  3. ScottOctober 6, 2013 at 9:38 AM

    I also realllllly wanted to take the jags but that's a hard sell without convincing data to backup the pick

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  4. RoyceOctober 6, 2013 at 9:59 AM

    $30 on NO pick em, $30 on NE +1, $30 on KC -2.5, $50 on Seattle -2.5, and $50 on SF -6.5.

    I'm excited for the games this week. Also like Scott I wanted to take all the points with Jax, but I just couldn't feel good about relying on that total crap team.

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  5. RoyceOctober 6, 2013 at 10:43 PM

    Good thing you didn't take the Jags. Man they are so bad.

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  6. AaronOctober 6, 2013 at 11:48 PM

    That's not nice.

    ReplyDelete
  7. ScottOctober 7, 2013 at 9:06 AM

    Where's the like button? Royce wins the comment throwdown title belt that I just made up. Yes, we'll be following Grantland's Quarterback Championship Belt concept.

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  8. AaronOctober 7, 2013 at 3:45 PM

    I'm going to take this time to put $330 on the Jaguars +28 before the line moves.

    Maybe it moves a lot and I hedge for a middle.

    ReplyDelete
  9. ScottOctober 7, 2013 at 4:46 PM

    That's one mighty big bet considering it's 39% of your current bankroll.

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  10. ScottOctober 7, 2013 at 4:55 PM

    FYI: they're currently 0-4 ATS, and you've already lost $143 on them in 3 previous bets.

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  11. RoyceOctober 7, 2013 at 5:06 PM

    HAHAHAHAHA

    The quantification of Aaron's losings on the league's worst team really slayed me. Serious question - do you feel comfortable getting 28 points and taking the Jags? This is a team that could lose 52-3 and nobody would even blink. I wouldn't feel comfortable even a little bit.

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  12. ScottOctober 8, 2013 at 8:36 AM

    I'm in your boat Royce. Demasiado Puntos? Sure, probably. But how could you go home at night and sleep knowing your $$ is on that turd pile?

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  13. AaronOctober 8, 2013 at 2:45 PM

    It's the idea that teams in the NFL aren't that far apart. I would likely take any NFL team +28 vs. any NFL team. It's the idea that this is a line put up by Vegas to try to get action on both sides. And the success of the Broncos and already being a public team inflates their lines a little more. They have already shown they will pull Peyton in the 4th quarter if they are up big. And if the line moves down to 24 or so, I might go for a middle.

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  14. RoyceOctober 8, 2013 at 9:56 PM

    What's the opposite of demasiados puntos? It should be like insuficientes puntos, but for some flair I am going with the German: unzureichend punkte.

    (important note: I have no idea if that's right, it's just what Google told me)

    That's how I feel about some of these lines. Sure it's a lot of points; just not enough points to make me feel good about it.

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  15. AaronOctober 9, 2013 at 1:18 PM

    I don't think it's a lock by any means, but I think I have about a 70% chance of covering +28.

    ReplyDelete
  16. ScottOctober 10, 2013 at 11:20 AM

    This screams as a game to stay away from. SCREAMS!

    Here's a fun Chad Millman article just on this line & how the books have been thinking about it for a a few weeks.

    ReplyDelete

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