FIWK the NFL: Thursday Quick Pick Week 9

Cincinnati at MIAMI -2.5
I kind of like this Cincy team.  Okay so Andy Dalton isn't the league's best QB, but he might be average and that might be enough with guys like AJ Green to throw to.  Their defense is really good (league's 4th-best by DVOA) so an average or above-average offense should help them win this.  Meanwhile I don't know what I'm getting from Miami, they confound and confuse me.  What's your take on Miami?

For what it's worth, Football Outsiders has Cincy's DVOA at +22% (4th best) and Miami's at -10% (22nd in the league).  So that's a big disparity, probably worth the less-than-2-FGs in the spread here.

Music Tuesdays - Isjaki by Sigur Ros

I am surprised we have never had a Sigur Ros song on Music Tuesdays before.  I absolutely love this song; but I realize this band isn't for everybody.  I waited a long time to post this because I was hoping I could find a different video (I hate this one, it bores and disturbs me), but alas I can't find another.  The live versions don't have quite the same haunting aural soundscape as the album track.

FIWK the NFL: Week 8 Quick Picks

No time for commentary!  Go go go!

Dallas at DETROIT +3.0

KANSAS CITY vs. Cleveland -7.5

NEW ENGLAND vs. Miami -6.5

Buffalo at NEW ORLEANS +11.0

PHILADELPHIA vs. ny giants -5.5

San Francisco at JACKSONVILLE -16.5

CINCINNATI vs. ny jets -6.5

OAKLAND vs. Pittsburgh +2.5

DENVER vs. Washington -12.5

ARIZONA vs. Atlanta -2.5

Green Bay at MINNESOTA -9.5

ST LOUIS vs. Seattle +11.0

FIWK the NFL: Week 7 Picks

This week I've got a goal:  at least one joke for every game.  This is going to be a comedy bloodbath.

Week 7 picks here we go!

FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick: Week 7

A better matchup on paper this week.... but the Thursday games have sucked:

Seattle at ARIZONA -6.5

Seattle's not amazing on the road, but the half-point makes me feel more comfortable.  That being said, Seattle has a DVOA of +34%, while Arizona's DVOA is -2%, so I feel on solid ground with this one.  This ought to be a matchup of two good defenses and not as good offenses.  That fact makes me nervous about the 7 points.... can Seattle score enough to exceed that?  We'll see.

Actually I've just talked myself back into this game being ugly just like every other Thursday game.  Ugh.  Bet on: "ME PLAYING GRAND THEFT AUTO 5 vs. Me watching this game -10.5".  Sneaky fantasy question here.... how good is Russell Wilson actually?  He's not amazing on my fantasy team.  But if he ever gets some good receivers, like say Percy Harvin If He Stays Healthy, could he vault into an elite type QB?  Or is his ceiling just 'fantastic low-stat game winner'?

Music Tuesdays - Falling by Haim

Haim (sounds like 'rhyme') is blowing up right now, I really enjoy their recent album, I predict Aaron won't like them, and that is all.

NFL Week 6: Throwback to when Aaron wrote it

Chargers play the Colts this week, and while the Colts are the better team, I have never really feared the Colts.  Maybe it's because of the Antonio Cromartie picture above, or this Michael Turner run, or this Darren Sproles run.  Granted, those three guys aren't on the Chargers any more, but the spirit remains.  If we can beat the Colts at home on Monday night (I'm betting we'll at least have the lead at halftime), beating the Jaguars should be a given, sweep the NFC East (they're terrible and we already beat two of them), take two from the Raiders, go 2-2 in our 4 games against the Broncos and Chiefs (that's probably the hard part of this projection, but maybe a home and home kind of thing) that's 10 wins without counting our games against the Bengals and Dolphins.  What's that?  We already lost to the Raiders around midnight last Sunday?  Well shit.  I have no idea what to expect of the Chargers this season.



Underdog Spread
@Cleveland X vs 
Buffalo 3.5
vs  X New Orleans 0
vs  X New England 1
@Green Bay X vs 
Detroit 7
Kansas City X vs 
@Tennessee 2.5
Seattle X vs 
@Indianapolis 2.5
@St. Louis
vs  X Jacksonville 11.5
vs  X Baltimore 3
@New York (NYG)
vs  X Philadelphia 2
Carolina X vs 
@Arizona 2
Denver X vs 
@Dallas 7.5
@San Francisco X vs 
Houston 6.5
San Diego X vs 
@Oakland 4.5
vs  X New York (NYJ) 10

FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick - Week 5

Quick pick for Thursday night, elongated picks to follow closer to the weekend...

CLEVELAND vs. Buffalo -4.0
It feels like Cleveland should be favored by more than 4 pts at home?  After two solid weeks of making fun of Brian Hoyer, I feel like I have to take him seriously now.  It's like Cousin Sal said.... if we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times - when in doubt, trade away your best player and put in your 3rd string QB.  Always works.  Meanwhile Buffalo has been inconsistent (at best) away from home... right?

It looks like the DVOA ratings have been updated to adjust for opponents now... and Buffalo actually comes out ahead at +9.4%, while Cleveland is down at -12.1%.  Is this a big enough gap to scare me off?  Let's just say I won't be betting this game.  But part of Cleveland's rating includes the pre-Hoyer era, which really is akin to evaluating the Broncos based on the pre-Manning era.  So I'm sticking with Cleveland!

Music Tuesdays - Pompeii by Bastille

A fun song.  I am curious if Aaron, in particular, enjoys this song.