Quick pick for Thursday night, elongated picks to follow closer to the weekend...
CLEVELAND vs. Buffalo -4.0
It feels like Cleveland should be favored by more than 4 pts at home? After two solid weeks of making fun of Brian Hoyer, I feel like I have to take him seriously now. It's like Cousin Sal said.... if we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times - when in doubt, trade away your best player and put in your 3rd string QB. Always works. Meanwhile Buffalo has been inconsistent (at best) away from home... right?
It looks like the DVOA ratings have been updated to adjust for opponents now... and Buffalo actually comes out ahead at +9.4%, while Cleveland is down at -12.1%. Is this a big enough gap to scare me off? Let's just say I won't be betting this game. But part of Cleveland's rating includes the pre-Hoyer era, which really is akin to evaluating the Broncos based on the pre-Manning era. So I'm sticking with Cleveland!