FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick - Week 5

Quick pick for Thursday night, elongated picks to follow closer to the weekend...


CLEVELAND vs. Buffalo -4.0
It feels like Cleveland should be favored by more than 4 pts at home?  After two solid weeks of making fun of Brian Hoyer, I feel like I have to take him seriously now.  It's like Cousin Sal said.... if we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times - when in doubt, trade away your best player and put in your 3rd string QB.  Always works.  Meanwhile Buffalo has been inconsistent (at best) away from home... right?

It looks like the DVOA ratings have been updated to adjust for opponents now... and Buffalo actually comes out ahead at +9.4%, while Cleveland is down at -12.1%.  Is this a big enough gap to scare me off?  Let's just say I won't be betting this game.  But part of Cleveland's rating includes the pre-Hoyer era, which really is akin to evaluating the Broncos based on the pre-Manning era.  So I'm sticking with Cleveland!

8 comments:

  1. I've been irrationally high on Buffalo all season. So, I would probably lean towards them if a gun was at my head. Since one's not, Madagascar.

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  2. I really feel like Cleveland is the better team and will win tonight, and probably cover. But every form of analysis I look at has Buffalo slightly better or even, and almost certainly within the spread.

    I have a new idea that Scott and I actually developed in Vegas while there for Royce's bachelor . We wanted to bet on games during March Madness, but didn't want to spend all day in the sports book waiting in line to make (and then cash) our bets. We also didn't like the vig. So I carried a sheet with all the lines around and whenever there was a game we disagreed on, we would bet each other. No vig, money tallied up throughout the weekend, it worked great.

    So I'm proposing that right now. Scott if you want to take Buffalo, I'll take Cleveland -3.5 (the final line from Yahoo) tonight for $10, no vig. But I can totally envision you rejecting this, only because it might mess up your spreadsheet.

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  3. I'm pretty sure I won like $40 from Scott that weekend from those bets.

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  4. Never mind. I'm staying away.

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  5. Too bad he didn't take you up on that.

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  6. You did win. And I'm definitely in favor of adding in personal bets w/o the vig to our game. We can make it work on the spreadsheet...somehow.

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  7. That's ok. Picking up Cleveland's defense in almost every fantasy league was consolation enough.

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  8. Except for the one league where I picked up Cleveland's defense and forgot to move them into the starting lineup. That sucked.

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