FIWK the NFL: Week 10 Picks

I don't have much to say about the lines this week, so I'm just going to highlight those that interest me.  And, sorry Aaron, but a lot of point lines have moved significantly during the week, so I'm going to point those out.

Seattle at ATLANTA -5.5
For some reason this line dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 during the week, which makes me like Seattle even more.  That said they are super dicey away from home, but I continue to not trust Atlanta.  Is this Percy Harvin's first game back for Seattle?

Detroit at CHICAGO +1.0
This line moved from Detroit -2.5 to +1.0 during the week.  I'm sure there's a reason for that; I am not looking it up.  Come on you Lions!

GREEN BAY vs. Philadelphia -1.0
Green Bay was favored by -9.5 before Aaron Rodgers' injury was announced.  He is worth 8.5 points to his team.  That's a big number.  I think one point is still too low for this caliber of team at home, despite the Seneca Wallace factor.

Jacksonville at TENNESSEE +12.0
Demasiados puntos.

INDIANAPOLIS vs. St Louis -9.5
This line dropped from 11.5 to 9.5 during the week.  The reasons remain unclear to me.  I absolutely, positively do not trust this Rams team, and I think the Colts easily win by double digits.

Oakland at NY GIANTS +7.0
Seems like a bigbig line for a team with a record of 2-5 and a DVOA of -22.4%

PITTSBURGH vs. Buffalo -3.0
No idea what's going to happen in this game; picking the home team.

BALTIMORE vs. Cincinnati -1.5
Another home team pick, but I don't feel good about it.  How come the Ravens can't run the ball anymore?  Have we figured that out?

SAN FRANCISCO vs. Carolina -6.0
Is Carolina the upswing surprise team of the year?  Regardless, I like the Niners to cover the less-than-TD spread at home.

ARIZONA vs. Houston -2.5
Houston stinks, Arizona's decent.  Not sure why this line moved from -1.0 to -2.5 during the week, and I don't care.

SAN DIEGO vs. Denver +7.0
This is a lot of points for a home dog to be getting.  That said it still might not be enough... Denver is really good.  Best case scenario is that SD can play their ball control game with Denver and use their offense to keep Peyton off the field as much as possible.  On the other hand I'm not sure their secondary can stop anybody whatsoever, so the Denver receivers should have a field day.  Will be an interesting game.

Dallas at NEW ORLEANS +6.5
Call me crazy, but I kind of like this Dallas team.  You know who agrees with me?  DVOA.  Their DVOA of 13% (12th-ranked) isn't that far off of New Orleans' rating of 17% (7th).  This line feels a little too high to me, and I like Dallas to make the playoffs and be dangerous.

Miami at TAMPA BAY -2.5
What the hell?  Is the Richie Incognito & Daniel Martin fiasco really so bad that it dropped Miami's line by this much?  Aaron, what are your thoughts on this - valid line movement?  Miami too distracted to play well?  I don't know how to to take this.