FIWK the NFL: Week 10 Picks

I don't have much to say about the lines this week, so I'm just going to highlight those that interest me.  And, sorry Aaron, but a lot of point lines have moved significantly during the week, so I'm going to point those out.

Seattle at ATLANTA -5.5
For some reason this line dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 during the week, which makes me like Seattle even more.  That said they are super dicey away from home, but I continue to not trust Atlanta.  Is this Percy Harvin's first game back for Seattle?

Detroit at CHICAGO +1.0
This line moved from Detroit -2.5 to +1.0 during the week.  I'm sure there's a reason for that; I am not looking it up.  Come on you Lions!

GREEN BAY vs. Philadelphia -1.0
Green Bay was favored by -9.5 before Aaron Rodgers' injury was announced.  He is worth 8.5 points to his team.  That's a big number.  I think one point is still too low for this caliber of team at home, despite the Seneca Wallace factor.

Jacksonville at TENNESSEE +12.0
Demasiados puntos.

INDIANAPOLIS vs. St Louis -9.5
This line dropped from 11.5 to 9.5 during the week.  The reasons remain unclear to me.  I absolutely, positively do not trust this Rams team, and I think the Colts easily win by double digits.

Oakland at NY GIANTS +7.0
Seems like a bigbig line for a team with a record of 2-5 and a DVOA of -22.4%

PITTSBURGH vs. Buffalo -3.0
No idea what's going to happen in this game; picking the home team.

BALTIMORE vs. Cincinnati -1.5
Another home team pick, but I don't feel good about it.  How come the Ravens can't run the ball anymore?  Have we figured that out?

SAN FRANCISCO vs. Carolina -6.0
Is Carolina the upswing surprise team of the year?  Regardless, I like the Niners to cover the less-than-TD spread at home.

ARIZONA vs. Houston -2.5
Houston stinks, Arizona's decent.  Not sure why this line moved from -1.0 to -2.5 during the week, and I don't care.

SAN DIEGO vs. Denver +7.0
This is a lot of points for a home dog to be getting.  That said it still might not be enough... Denver is really good.  Best case scenario is that SD can play their ball control game with Denver and use their offense to keep Peyton off the field as much as possible.  On the other hand I'm not sure their secondary can stop anybody whatsoever, so the Denver receivers should have a field day.  Will be an interesting game.

Dallas at NEW ORLEANS +6.5
Call me crazy, but I kind of like this Dallas team.  You know who agrees with me?  DVOA.  Their DVOA of 13% (12th-ranked) isn't that far off of New Orleans' rating of 17% (7th).  This line feels a little too high to me, and I like Dallas to make the playoffs and be dangerous.

Miami at TAMPA BAY -2.5
What the hell?  Is the Richie Incognito & Daniel Martin fiasco really so bad that it dropped Miami's line by this much?  Aaron, what are your thoughts on this - valid line movement?  Miami too distracted to play well?  I don't know how to to take this.


  1. Aaron has the following...

    For Week 10, I'll put:

    $55 on Oakland +7.
    $44 on Buffalo +3
    $33 on Carolina +6 and Arizona -2.5.

  2. $44 on Niners and Cards. $22 on Tampa

  3. $50 on Miami -2.5, $50 on Dallas +6.5, and $100 on Arizona -2.5. This is the least exciting week of picks I can rememer.

    By the way - looks out Aaron Rodgers was worth a lot more than 8.5 points to his team.

  4. Woohoo thank you extra 0.5 points Arizona! And thanks for nothing stupid Dallas. Ugh.

    New Orleans legit NFC title contenders? Or still don't consider them ahead of Seahawks and Niners?

  5. Uhhh....I know you didn't just put the Niners up there. Did you see any of Sunday's game? Offensively inept is being generous.

  6. My quick thought on the Dolphins-Bucs is that the line feels about right. The Dolphins would be favored by less than 7 (maybe 5.5 or 6.5) on a neutral field and the game is in the City of Tampa. So maybe a single point for the distractions in the locker room?

  7. I was a little upset that I missed my Bills pick...but Oakland, Carolina, and Arizona picked me right up.

    I particularly liked Raiders losing by 4 with a 7 point spread and the Cardinals 3 point win covering 2.5 points. Half point FTW!

  8. Half point FTW indeed

    No Scooter I didn't see any of the Niners this weekend, are they that bad on offense? Cause that's gonna be a problem.

  9. We had 12.5 yards of offense. Yes, there's a decimal point in there. That wasn't 125.