It looks like Jake Locker is out for the season, so I have no idea why Tennessee is only getting 3. Maybe it's because the Colts got their doors absolutely blown off by the Rams last week? Aaron - do you have an explanation for that? I still have no idea whatsoever how that happened. I remain confused but I'm sticking with the Colts to beat the Titans' backup QB.
Lots of things Royce...
ReplyDelete1) You can now view my table that takes teams Pythagorean winning percentage and calculates the favorites probability of winning. Look at the tab 'Win probability'.
2) You will see that on a neutral field, the Colts would be favored by 3. In Tennessee it should be close to even, and apparently Jake Locker is worth 3 points to the Titans.
3) A negative 30 really hurts they Pythagorean %.
4) DVOA kind of agrees with me that the gap between these teams isn't that big.
I'll put $11 on the Titans +3. My system doesn't really have a way to account for injured quarterbacks.
This game is intriguing as it should help to provide clarity for 2 sets of teams:
ReplyDelete1) Those, like Indy, who are just below the upper echelon of teams
2) Those, like Tennessee, who are fighting for the playoffs
I have to like Indy here due to Locker being out, so I'll go $22 on Colts -3.
Aaron that's a great breakdown of things. But I want to really dig in on #3 on your list:
ReplyDeleteWhy the EFF did Indy lose so bad to the Rams? Is there any explanation? Did you watch the games, and if so what conclusions did you draw?
Also as far as #2, I don't know how to value Locker but I'm treating the dropoff from him to Fitzgerald as worth significantly more than 3 pts. Going with the Colts here, but not strongly enough to put some dough.
Just kidding...
ReplyDeleteThe only winner in this ordeal? The fiwking house! VIIIIGGGGGGGG!!!!
ReplyDeleteDon't pushes get a refund?
ReplyDeleteOh yes. You're right... =D
ReplyDeleteWell that was anticlimactic
ReplyDelete