FIWK the NFL: Week 9 Picks

Week 9 picks are in the bag!  How many incorrect 'locks' am I going to decide upon this week...

FIWK NFL Season Preview - The Simmons/Sal NFL Over/Under Picks

Here's a quick overview of the season over/under picks that Sal and Simmons did on their podcast this week.  They also put up some videos of this session, which I always enjoy.  And a bonus Joe House sighting!  It's like Christmas in my heart.

NFL Conference Title Games

The Birthmark vs. The Retiree. The Commercial vs. The [NSFW]. Colts -8. Saints -3.5. I've been trying to find anything that will give me some confidence in making these picks any way. The Vikings pass rush could bother Drew Brees even more than the Cowboys did in December. The Jets could run on the smaller quicker defenders of the Colts and even if they don't win, could still keep the game closer than 8. I finally settled on Bill Simmon's philosophy of only taking the underdog if you think they can win outright...and interceptions. So taking a look at the team offensive and defensive stats, specifically interceptions thrown and interceptions by the defense, and decided who I think will win that way.

NFL Playoffs Week 1

For the first week of the playoffs this season, three out of the four matchups are rematches of the week before. Normally, you see analysis of a rematch from way back in Week 4 (NE 27- Bal 21), which is so long ago that it really is useless. I mean Wes Welker is out and...ok, the teams are basically the same, so maybe it is useful. Since Yahoo's Pick'Em ended, I'm going to use the Sports Guy for the lines, mostly because I'm too lazy/busy to look them up for myself. Now the Bengals are favored by 2.5 over the Jets, to whom their second string lost 37-0 only six days prior. The Eagles are four point underdogs to the Cowboys after both teams played their starters last Sunday and the Cowboys (what's a good verb here? demolished? creamed? wiped the floor with? annihilated?) displayed their superiority in a 24-0 rout. The Wes Welker-less Patriots (all writers discussing the NFL this week are obligated to mention that the Patriots are playing without the league leader in receptions...seriously, Roger Goodell sent out a memo...you didn't get it? Let me know and I'll forward it to you.) have the standard 3 point home field advantage over the Ravens. I think this means that Vegas would have LOVED to see Welker go down in Week 16 so that they could see the Patriots operate without Welker at least once. Because his absence from the offense just confuses them. And finally Green Bay is currently a PICK with Arizona, which is Vegas saying the Cardinals are at home, but the Packers won 33-7 last week.

NBA Salary Woes: The Maynor Trade

Yesterday the NBA's Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder completed a trade that sent guard Eric Maynor and forward Matt Harpring from the Jazz to the Thunder in return for the rights to a German forward who will never play in the NBA. The only reason the Thunder included anything at all is because NBA rules say teams have to trade something tangible. The real benefit that the Jazz received from the Thunder? As John Hollinger's article explains, the Jazz will save more than $10 million dollars by dumping two dead-weight contracts on the Thunder, who are far below the luxury tax threshold.

Random Thoughts Thursday

Inspired by Aaron's random thoughts, the assorted links blogs by Matthew Yglesias and Marginal Revolution, and Ezra Klein's "tab dump" posts, here some links I've been reading but don't have a strong angle to craft whole blogs around:

- I enjoyed this transcript of William Faulkner's great acceptance speech for the Nobel Prize in Literature while looking for a transcript of Obama's acceptance speech

- the public intoxication blog's fondness for the scale of 1 to 10 makes me want to use the scale in more daily situations... how much did you enjoy these random links, on a scale of 1 to 10?

- the site It Starts With Us is interesting (if sappy) for its concept, and I agree generally with this article describing why your attitude matters - because you influence others by proxy, and vice versa

- National Geographic has a photo gallery of the Best US Drives; a quiz about Jamaica; and a wintertime photo tour of the US

- the list of men who look like old lesbians that Scott linked to... seriously, it slays me

- Bill Simmons' discussion in his BS Report on 12/7 with Dave Jacoby that they had a fantasy draft of "celebrities most likely to be unfaithful in the next 12 months" a la Tiger... I move for FIWK to conduct more such random fantasy drafts

Bill Simmons is popular

The New York Times has a Media & Advertising columnist writing about Bill Simmons, probably because his "Book of Basketball" was #1 on the New York Times non-fiction Best Sellers list last week. One things he tried to do was get a discussion with readers, so I tried to create a new email address for FIWK readers (quick betting line: O/U 7.5 readers* not counting the four of us?) to contact us directly without having to add a comment.

But FIWK@gmail doesn't work because Gmail requires at least 6 characters and F*ckIfWeKnow doesn't work because Gmail doesn't allow special characters (*). Ideas? Do we even need a separate email address?

*I'm counting readers as people who have come directly to our site to see if we have put up a new post.

NFL Week 9

I know, LT isn't what he used to be, but this is the first Google Image when you search 'chargers vs. giants.'

Simmons wrote about his book signing tour along with his Week 9 picks. Mikael and I witnessed him pull out his Blackberry to take a photo of the Grizzlies fans. Another guy came by later wearing a Pau Gasol black Memphis jersey, but did not get his picture taken.

Simmons poor showings the last two weeks have mirrored my own setbacks, even though I often make my picks before Simmons releases his column. This week, I'm going with
San Diego +4.5
Baltimore -3
San Francisco -4
Green Bay -9.5
Denver +3

And shit, that matches Simmons exactly... I'm screwed.

NBA Preview by Bill Simmons

With his NBA Preview, two part column, Bill Simmons has set the stage for the coming NBA season. ESPN has also posted its NBA Power Rankings for the year, listing the Lakers #1 as is customary for the defending champ. Season tipoff is tomorrow, so it's time for us on FIWK to talk some NBA also.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Simmons put his picks at the end of a startingly long mailbag. After making my Yahoo picks I noticed that almost every game this week is basically one favorite versus one underdog (sometimes severe underdog). It's a lopsided week. Here are the games that stood out to me:

Vikings vs. RAMS +10
GIANTS vs. Raiders +15
NINERS vs. Falcons +2.5
Jets vs. DOLPHINS +1.5

Who ya got?

NFL Week 4 Picks

Another week in the NFL means another week of Bill Simmons NFL picks and us getting to analyze the good games. He also includes his power rankings this week - I disagree that New Orleans is a contender already, they've hardly played anyone. Anyway, after our success last week we are on a roll with the lines. What games stand out to you this week? Mine are:

Redskins (-7.5) over Bucs
Giants (-9.0) over Chiefs
Saints (-7.0) over Jets

Who you got?

Gilbert Arenas, the new Ron Artest

I always knew Gilbert Arenas was eccentric. But his most recent comments about his injury and the Wizards' treatment of him makes me think he's just downright crazy. The defining quote is "sometimes you have to protect players from themselves" - he regrets his decision to play and wishes the Wizards hadn't let him do it. He has one foot into Bill Simmons' Tyson Zone in my mind, just like Ron Artest riding a team bus in his underwear just before a playoff game.

It's Football Time

The NFL season starts tonight - which means a classic Simmons NFL column and me doing some last-minute fantasy drafts because I love managing fantasy teams. Who you got in tonight's Titans-Steelers game?

Athlete Drinks

I was just introduced to the John Daly cocktail and the LeBomb James (below) in Bill Simmons' most recent mailbag. He suggests a drink for himself, a spicy bloody mary, but I think that's an awful choice.

What's a good drink for a Bill Simmons? What other athlete drinks can we come up with? Any that currently exist that are as good as the Daly or the LeBomb?

Simmons on Steroids... yet again

I know he wrote it because it involves his beloved Red Sox, but I'm really disappointed that Bill Simmons wrote YET ANOTHER column about steroids

Sports fans' inner child

I just spent the last the last 40 minutes reading Bill Simmons and reminiscing my baseball card collecting as a 6-10 year old.