FIWK the NFL: Playoffs Conference Championships

As friends of mine, I want Scott and Mik to be happy in general. In fact, I'd like to think I want all my friends and family to be happy. So why would I want the 49ers to lose this weekend? A few years ago my wife and I moved from San Diego (where I grew up) to the San Francisco Bay Area (where she grew up). We already had many friends from UCLA who lived in the area so it was a relatively easy transition. They knew I loved the Chargers and Padres and I knew all my friends and family in the area supported the San Francisco 49ers and San Francisco Giants. So in 2010, after I recovered from the Padres' epic collapse and the SF Giants were working their way to the World Series, I didn't support the Giants by any means, but I was happy for my friends and family in the area to see their team doing well. It took a few days or so before I learned of the folly of my emotions. Everyone was wearing "SF Giants 2010 World Series Champs" apparel and asking me something along the lines of "Are the Padres ever going to have clothes like this?" Days turned in to weeks and weeks turned in to months and it was relentless. People going to the parade. Jessica asking me if I would fly down to San Diego for a playoff game or parade. Yim coming over in said apparel saying "I wore this just for you." Now with the 49ers playing so well, and my own analysis concluding that I am going to pick them in every game they play, I feel a sense of dread coming upon me. It's not an impending sense of doom, because I am still uplifted by the thought of my friends and family being happy. It's just a sense of dread...maybe frustration... It's people bringing up all kind of SF vs. SD talk. It's friends blasphemously saying that Violet will want to be a 49ers fan. It's me wondering if I will ever get to cheer for a championship team...

FIWK the NFL: Playoffs Week 2

What? A picture that isn't the Chargers? Is Aaron feeling ok? Yes. But just in case the Saints emerge victorious this weekend, I wanted Scott and Mik to be a little happy. As for last weekend...that Texans-Bengals game pretty much went exactly as I called it. That was the big news right? I mean, you couldn't turn on the TV without seeing JJ Watt, right? In much more boring news, every home team won. Every home team was the higher seed and they won, meaning there were no upsets. In every game, the victor threw fewer interceptions than the loser (or tied at zero, meaning they weren't a factor). Even in the Denver-Pittsburgh game, the Broncos quarterback played significantly better than his Steelers counterpart and won. But in actually making my predictions, especially against the spread, I did not do so well. When the Saints-Lions was at 24-21, choosing the underdog and all those points seemed like a really good idea. Thirty minutes later at 45-28, not so good. As for the Falcons laying an egg? (Does that even count as a pun?) I guess I was smart not to put $ on them. And if the Saints and Lions were to play again this weekend, I'd probably still pick the Lions and the points. And while I picked the Broncos and the points, I was very, very confident the Steelers would win. In fact, I'm participating in a pool where you get to pick a winner for each of the eleven playoff games straight up and assign it a confidence 1-11, where you can only use each confidence number once. I picked the Steelers with confidence of 11. Now, that I've convinced you just how good I am at predicting the outcome of NFL playoff games, on to the picks...

FIWK the NFL: Playoffs Week 1

This picture is honor of Eric Weddle being named to the All-Pro team. Which is about the only good thing going for the Chargers right now. If you want to know if any 49ers made the All-Pro team, you'll have to ask Scott or Mik. I'm already thinking about next year and fantasy football for next year. I won our keeper league, but we'll have to see how I do without Adrian Peterson next year. I guess I'll just have to console myself with Ray Rice in the 3rd round, Matthew Stafford in the 5th round and Vincent Jackson in the 8th round. I think I'll be ok. As for this weekend, the only good thing I can think of for Royce and myself is that we can make completely objective thoughts and analysis. Before I get to the actual games, a little reminder about how I do things around here. First, I take the team's points scored and points allowed to calculate a Pythagorean winning % that is more accurate than a team's actual winning percentage. Then taking the two winning percentages, I determine how often the favorite is likely to win. Yeah, you learned all of this from Bill Barnwell a couple months ago. Then, using data from Spreadapedia, I determine how often a favorite with a given spread has won historically. Additionally, for the playoffs I take a look at interceptions. It is easy to say that the team that turns the ball over the least is probably going to win. And fumble recoveries tend to be very random. But interceptions are not. So I look how many pass attempts and offense and defense should expect to see before an interception is thrown. I don't have a specific algorithm, but there are only four data points and the sample size is a little small, so I prefer to eyeball this one. Then I check Football Outsiders just because I like their DVOA efficiency stat. And then I just make up the rest. I'll walk you through it, but it's probably easier with an example. That way I don't have to be explaining this for every game, every week.

NFL Playoffs Week 1

For the first week of the playoffs this season, three out of the four matchups are rematches of the week before. Normally, you see analysis of a rematch from way back in Week 4 (NE 27- Bal 21), which is so long ago that it really is useless. I mean Wes Welker is out and...ok, the teams are basically the same, so maybe it is useful. Since Yahoo's Pick'Em ended, I'm going to use the Sports Guy for the lines, mostly because I'm too lazy/busy to look them up for myself. Now the Bengals are favored by 2.5 over the Jets, to whom their second string lost 37-0 only six days prior. The Eagles are four point underdogs to the Cowboys after both teams played their starters last Sunday and the Cowboys (what's a good verb here? demolished? creamed? wiped the floor with? annihilated?) displayed their superiority in a 24-0 rout. The Wes Welker-less Patriots (all writers discussing the NFL this week are obligated to mention that the Patriots are playing without the league leader in receptions...seriously, Roger Goodell sent out a memo...you didn't get it? Let me know and I'll forward it to you.) have the standard 3 point home field advantage over the Ravens. I think this means that Vegas would have LOVED to see Welker go down in Week 16 so that they could see the Patriots operate without Welker at least once. Because his absence from the offense just confuses them. And finally Green Bay is currently a PICK with Arizona, which is Vegas saying the Cardinals are at home, but the Packers won 33-7 last week.