FIWK the NFL: Playoffs Conference Championships

As friends of mine, I want Scott and Mik to be happy in general. In fact, I'd like to think I want all my friends and family to be happy. So why would I want the 49ers to lose this weekend? A few years ago my wife and I moved from San Diego (where I grew up) to the San Francisco Bay Area (where she grew up). We already had many friends from UCLA who lived in the area so it was a relatively easy transition. They knew I loved the Chargers and Padres and I knew all my friends and family in the area supported the San Francisco 49ers and San Francisco Giants. So in 2010, after I recovered from the Padres' epic collapse and the SF Giants were working their way to the World Series, I didn't support the Giants by any means, but I was happy for my friends and family in the area to see their team doing well. It took a few days or so before I learned of the folly of my emotions. Everyone was wearing "SF Giants 2010 World Series Champs" apparel and asking me something along the lines of "Are the Padres ever going to have clothes like this?" Days turned in to weeks and weeks turned in to months and it was relentless. People going to the parade. Jessica asking me if I would fly down to San Diego for a playoff game or parade. Yim coming over in said apparel saying "I wore this just for you." Now with the 49ers playing so well, and my own analysis concluding that I am going to pick them in every game they play, I feel a sense of dread coming upon me. It's not an impending sense of doom, because I am still uplifted by the thought of my friends and family being happy. It's just a sense of dread...maybe frustration... It's people bringing up all kind of SF vs. SD talk. It's friends blasphemously saying that Violet will want to be a 49ers fan. It's me wondering if I will ever get to cheer for a championship team...

Baltimore @ New England (-7): The Ravens and Patriots respective offenses each threw 12 interceptions in the regular season. But the Ravens only attempted 544 passes, while the Patriots threw it 612 times. So the Patriots are less likely to throw an interception. The Patriots' defense also caught more interceptions than the Ravens defense, which surprised me a little considering Football Outsiders have the Ravens pass defense as the best in the NFL this year. And, as always, (am I starting to sound like Simmons or TMQ or Peter King by using the exact same phrases and ideas? Or is consistency a good thing?) when we have a dominant offense against a dominant defense, we look the other way. This game will be decided by how the Patriots defense does against the Ravens offense. The Patriots were a 11.5-4.5 team masquerading as a 13-3 team while the Ravens should have been 11.1-4.9 instead of their actual record of 12-4. Since the Patriots were better on both offense and defense and have a better Pythagorean winning percentage, they have to be the obvious pick, right? Of course not. I never answer my rhetorical questions in the positive. Wait no, I never answer my rhetorical questions in the way you would expect just based on how I set up the rhetorical question. On a neutral field the Patriots should win 53% of the time and at home they win 59% of the time. This would correspond to a 3.5 spread, not the current 7 points they are giving. So my pick is for the Patriots to win outright, but the Ravens will cover the spread.

Nyg @ San Francisco (-2.5): Whoo boy, this one's a doozy. Only 2.5 points? Is it even possible for me to pick one team to win outright and the other to cover when the spread is so small? Technically, yes, but realistically no. And honestly, for me, this one isn't even that close. I have this weird thing about preferring larger sample sizes and discounting the most recent game more than most people. In fact, for the playoffs, I have completely ignored the previous result. This means that I am comparing a Giants team with a negative point differential to a 49ers team that had the best Pythagorean winning % in the NFL. I am comparing the team that threw the fewest interceptions to the team that threw the T-most interceptions among teams that made the playoffs. And it may surprise you to learn that the Giants actually have a good offense while their defense was their weak link this year. So when comparing a good offense (Giants) vs. a good defense (49ers) we look the other way (seriously, I need a better phrase than this) and try to guess how the 49ers offense will do against the Giants defense. It was Alex Smith and Vernon Davis that were the heroes for the 49ers last week. But really, this game comes down to how important you think sample sizes are. Do you think the Giants are the team that played 16 games in the regular season is less than spectacular fashion or the team that played two playoff games outstandingly. I err on the side of sample sizes. Based on their points scored and allowed and the 49ers being at home, this game should have a double digit spread. I am picking the 49ers to win and cover...and I really hope I'm wrong.