The Birthmark vs. The Retiree. The Commercial vs. The [NSFW]. Colts -8. Saints -3.5. I've been trying to find anything that will give me some confidence in making these picks any way. The Vikings pass rush could bother Drew Brees even more than the Cowboys did in December. The Jets could run on the smaller quicker defenders of the Colts and even if they don't win, could still keep the game closer than 8. I finally settled on Bill Simmon's philosophy of only taking the underdog if you think they can win outright...and interceptions. So taking a look at the team offensive and defensive stats, specifically interceptions thrown and interceptions by the defense, and decided who I think will win that way.
The Colts threw 19 interceptions in 601 attempts, the Jets threw 21 in 393 attempts. Indianapolis caught 16 interceptions against 583 attempts and New York caught 17 interceptions against 501 throws. So the Jets do a slightly better at intercepting the ball, but the Peyton Manning does a WAY better job not throwing interceptions. Manning throws 1 pick this game, Sanchez throws more. Colts win.
Instead of giving you all the stats that you can see for yourself on those links. Favre doesn't throw interceptions (led the league), but the Vikings defense doesn't catch interceptions. Brees also does a really good job not throwing interceptions, but New Orleans defense does a great job intercepting the ball. I say Brees throws 0, Favre throws 1 and the Saints win.
Any ATS picks, or are your Saints/Colts win predictions for ATS?
ReplyDeleteI'll go with Jets and Saints to win ATS with the Colts also winning outright.
FYI - I really wanted to go with "Charger-Killers" instead of "Jets".
ReplyDeleteScott you are a giant douche, in the words of a mutual friend I hate you with the fury of a thousand suns
ReplyDeleteI take Saints and Colts winning outright by large margins. Although Colts vs either NFC team would make for a great Super Bowl.
Most entertaining scenario for the NFC game: Brett Favre driving down the field for a game-tying or -winning score, only to throw a game-losing interception like he did last time he led the Packers in the playoffs.
Heh - that would be a great ending to a game: would it be better in the NFC Championship or Super Bowl?
ReplyDeleteWe always pick ATS...and since I don't think the Jets can win the game outright, I'm taking the Colts ATS.
ReplyDeleteHaha - well, I'm excited that Brett Favre was driving down the field in position for a game-winning field-goal, but then threw what turned out to be the game-losing interception. That was entirely too entertaining.
ReplyDeleteWith that pick...all is right with the world. No more of this Brett-Favre-"The-Retiree"-throwing-the-fewest-interceptions-in-the-NFL shit. I want to depend on Favre throwing an interception when it really counts.
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