First up is the AFC East
NFL Predictions: AFC East
Aaron threw a bunch of predictions in the comments of our last NFL Preview discussion. I want to expand on that here with predictions for playoff teams, focusing on each conference.
First up is the AFC East
First up is the AFC East
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Here is what Aaron said:
ReplyDelete"The AFC East is going to be incredibly competitive. The Dolphins, Jets, and Bills are all making improvements and the Patriots are the Patriots. New England is a little older and lost a few parts, but they are always making smart draft and free agency decisions. Trading Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel away tells me the smartest coach in football thinks they are washed up, or the very least, overpaid. I don't think the Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens led Jets will make the playoffs, but they are building a great O-line and will be dangerous. The Bills have had a decent defense and running game, and if Lee Evans and TO can make Trent Edwards look like a top 10 QB, then I would say the Bills are more likely to make the playoffs than the Chad Pennington/Wildcat led Dolphins. Miami's problem won't be their offense, it's that their defense has dropped from #4 in 2006 to below average and doesn't show signs of getting back into the top ten."
By the way the AFC East link above takes you to ESPN's AFC East blog. I love that there are divisional blogs for the NFL, there is great info there.
ReplyDeleteAaron I completely disagree that the AFC East is going to be incredibly competitive. I think the Patriots are going to own this division and crush the rest of the teams. Brady will be really good, obviously, and his receivers are still studs. I never ever want to underestimate Belichick either.
ReplyDeleteThe other teams are intriguing, but nowhere near elite. The Bills in particular could be good with TO, Evans, and Lynch when he comes back from suspension. The Jets are probably a few years away and the only thing the Dolphins have going for them is a solid defense and Ronnie Brown, who is always on the verge of a big injury.
I would say any division with four teams capable of putting up winning records qualifies as extremely competitive. I agree the Brady led Patriots will win, but won't run away with it like 2 years ago. They still lack a great running game, and will use Wes Welker and short passes instead of trying to run three yards for a first down. You need to have a little balance to be elite. I'd say early in the season, their opponents are going to stack the line, rush the passer and stop the short pass. They'll be sending 5-6 guys often, jamming or doubling Welker and forcing the O-line to hold their blocks for 4-5 seconds. This will expose defenses to deep passes to Randy Moss in single coverage. So if the O-line can give Brady time early in the season, then the Patriots will be VERY scary. If the pass rush gets to him early in the season, and they don't develop a dependable running game, then Brady won't look the same. He'll make a few mistakes he never made in the past, releasing the ball too soon, or going down a little too easy, both in the name of protecting his legs.
ReplyDeleteSo if you had to pick one team to beat out the Patriots for the division, would it be the Bills?
ReplyDeleteAnd do you see the Bills or any of the other teams as potentially being a wild card for the playoffs?
Yes, I would pick the Bills...I think the Bills will get a wildcard spot, but I think they'll have two fewer wins than the Patriots.
ReplyDeleteThe Bills have an intelligent QB, good line, and playmakers at RB and WR. Their defense is solid if not good (but not wuite great). The thing I like most about them is their balance. This means that their opponents won't be able to single out any aspect of to focus on and it will be hard to find any significant weaknesses on tape to exploit. On defense they can defend the run and pass well enough that it will take a complete game by their opponent to win, and even then, it will be close (except maybe against the Patriots).
The Dolphins will need to figure out how to make a genuine offense around the Wildcat, which is very achievable, but cannot use it as a gimmick or a trick play. Pat White is the one rookie who I actually want to see play, because his success or failure will actually affect Tim Tebow's draft position, even though Tebow is better. The Dolphins will have a decent, if not entertaining offense, but their defense is what is going to prevent them from making the playoffs. Not enough playmakers and not stout enough to play straight up. They're going to try to employ a bend-but-don't-break defense and it's going to break a few times too many.
ReplyDeleteThe Jets, unfortunately, are right in between being good. Thomas Jones and their running game was good, but won't be good this year. Leon Washington is an exciting player, but can't carry an offense. Kellen Clemens or Mark Sanchez won't be good enough to get this team pas the rest of the teams in the division.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, this team has the best chance of supplanting the Patriots as the dominant team of the AFC East over the next decade. They have incredibly talented group of young players that will be in their prime over the next five years. Mark Sanchez, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mongold, Alan Faneca, Kris Jenkins, Vernon Gholston, Darelle Revis.
They'll have growing pains this year, but they will be much better next year.