Did the Pro Bowl make you forget about the other football game?

I wanted to have an interesting thing to talk about regarding the Super Bowl. I really did. I mean, I love football and gambling and our collective love of commercials is well documented. So basically my strategy is to ramble a little and hope I come up with a not-horrible idea. Bear with me, I can feel some ideas percolating. But first, I would like acknowledge the word "percolate" for being clever. It is used to describe science, coffee and ideas. That's kind of barely slightly better than not-at-all-interesting. Second, I want to criticize Dictionary.com. I type "percolating" into Google and it doesn't make the first page of results. And there's no way I'm clicking on the second page. I mean, based on the web address, this has every opportunity to dominate the online dictionary market, and its losing to thefreedictionary.com and even urbandictionary.com for the definition of percolating. This is like Tivo losing ground and everyone understanding the term DVR.

Ok, now on to some actual football. I consider Santonio Holmes' catch to be the greatest catch in Super Bowl history. I will allow debate to include The Immaculate Reception and Tyree's Helmet Catch. But considering the stakes (I will only consider catches in the Super Bowl, which eliminates The Catch and Franco Harris' catch) and the physical act of making the catch (which elminates Tyree's catch since it kind of showed why he is not a top WR...Jerry Rice would have caught that with both hands and never let it touch his helmet.) I think Holmes perfect form catching it with both hands, tip-toe keeping both feet in bounds, pulling it into his body and holding the ball all the way to the ground is a better than any single catch in NFL history.

And really, I think that's why we love watching the Super Bowl. We want to witness history. I still remember watching three lead changes in the final two minutes of the Music City Miracle. (Seriously...three lead changes...2:00 Bills 13 - Titans 12, 1:48 Titans 15-Bills 13, 0:16 Bills 16-Titans 15, 0:02 Titans 22-Bills 16). I remember Mike Jones tackle at the 1 in the Super Bowl the same year. I remember John Elway's Helicopter. Etcetera, etcetera.

I am definitely going to be interested in the entire experience, but what will I be hoping for? I kind of want Peyton Manning to cement his spot as the greatest QB ever. (or at least the last something years...apparently Johnny Unitas and Otto Graham were pretty good) But I don't just want to cheer for the Colts...I want to really be invested in something...something that will really get my emotions involved. So for the final score, I have Saints 6 - Colts 0. That's not the actual score I think will happen. That's just the score I'm interested in, if you know what I mean.

As for my actual analysis of the game. Everything I look at and think about says the Colts will win. Their defense is actually a little better than the Saints defense. Peyton Manning is better than Drew Brees. But I'm going to try and stay logical here and use the same system I used to predict the winners of the Conference championship games. I even checked the turnover stats for both teams to backup the interceptions stats. They say that the Colts are a little more likely to turn the ball over, which would mean that logically, I should be picking the Saints (at least to cover the 4.5 point spread). Am I going to be strong or a wuss? Can I take the Saints even though I really don't feel like they will win? Or does my successful logic dictate I go against my gut? As of right now, I just don't know. You'll have to check back before game time.


  1. (1) Last year's game had two of the craziest, most memorable plays in Super Bowl history. The first, Harrison's return, is one of those plays that has a sports book bouncing off the walls. The second, Holmes' catch, as you mentioned, is one that will have you shaking your head in disbelief 40 years from now.

    (2) Awesome wuss reference...

    (3) Final score: Colts 27, Saints 17 in a game that is anti-climactic after a strong 3rd quarter for the Colts (close/tied at half is what I'm predicting).

  2. Ugh I just lost a whole comment. Don't have time to respond to your mega-ramble right now.

    But I was saying that my angle is prop bets. Any you like for the game?

  3. I like that you called it a mega-ramble...that feels right. (As opposed to feeling wrong

  4. I'm still pretty torn. I feel like there's value in Drew Brees as MVP at 3-1. But at the same time, I feel like the Colts money line at -210 or so is also value. I'm suffering from gambling schizophrenia.

  5. So a friend asks me at dinner last night who I'm rooting for in the Super Bowl. I share most of the same thoughts I have shared in this space. At the end of the evening, I summarize my feelings with "whoever has fewer turnovers will win.". His response? "Way to step out on a limb with such a bold prediction."

    As soon as I said it, I hated myself. I hate announcers who make such generic claims.

    So I'm taking the Saints +4.5.

  6. Aaron, the team that scored the most points won. They also had the fewest turnovers.

    Good call on Saints victory... the Brees 3-1 MVP prop bet was pretty good considering it gave you bonus money over the Saints money line and there was no way they would win without him being MVP.

    I'm excited for Brees. I always liked him as a Charger and he seems genuinely nice.