Whomever the St. Louis Rams draft at #1 tonight, he will either be the highest paid player on the Rams or second or third behind Chris Long and Jason Smith, the second overall picks from the two previous drafts. Will Sam Bradford's Heisman and cast separate him from the others? What about Ndamukong Suh's vertical or Gerald McCoy's 40 time? And they show Eric Berry carrying the ball so much, he can probably play running back AND safety. Wouldn't a two way player warrant the #1 pick?
Anyways, when watching tonight, ignore mock drafts, but pay attention to big boards and team needs. I'm hoping the Chargers draft a running back or two in the lower rounds and look for a true nose tackle to take over for Jamal Williams in the higher rounds. I love the idea of Bill Parcell's "Planet Theory" (which apparently is actually former NY Giants excutive, George Young's theory that Parcells popularized) that there are so few athletic guys as big as a planet on this planet. So when you get a chance to have one on your team, you take it.
I'm going to follow Matthew Berry's style of making bold predictions, because sometimes it's just as fun to be totally wrong as it is to be completely correct.
-There will be a trade in the first round where a team will move up only one spot.
-Tim Tebow will be drafted in the second round.
-Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will be drafted in the top three picks (because I wanted to make sure I got one pick right).
-The Chargers will not take a running back or defensive tackle at 28 (either because they don't like what's available or they trade out of that spot...although they could trade up or down)
-Jimmy Clausen will be closer to Aaron Rodger's draft position (#24) than Jay Cutler's (#11).
-The Big 12 will not have the most first round picks.
-The Pac-10 will have zero or one player taken in the first round.
-The 49ers and the Seahawks have two first round picks. There will be at least one trade involving one of those four picks.
-There will be a trade with a team giving up their only first round pick.
-In the first two rounds, a team will trade their pick for a current NFL Player.
-There will be more defensive players than offensive players taken in the top 10.
-But there will be more offensive players taken in the entire first round.
-Colt McCoy will be taken before Tim Tebow.
If Suh isn't the #1 pick I'd be surprised. He seems like a definite beast for his position. But I'm uncannily atrocious at evaluating quarterbacks so I have absolutely no clue if Bradford will be good or not.
ReplyDeleteFor the record, I think at least 95% of NFL teams are also atrocious at evaluating quarterbacks. I will point to the last 20 years of draft history as evidence.
I think Bradford has a VERY similar skill set to Alex Smith, another college spread QB. While I think it is possible for Alex Smith to succeed and his failings have been just as much a result of his environment (poor blocking, constantly switching offensive coordinators and offenses, high expectations too soon) and that it's still possible for him to succeed.
ReplyDeleteIf St. Louis takes Bradford, they need to give him at least three years in the same offense to determine his success or failure. If the Rams can incorporate a lot of spread characteristics, then Bradford can probably succeed sooner. But if he has to learn a new offense this year, they might as well sit him for a year or two before asking him to start.
So - how do the SD-folk feel about jumping 75 spots to take a RB that they had a decent chance of actually picking up if they didn't move up at all?
ReplyDeleteFrom SF's POV, it was a somewhat odd draft, but this I know for sure: we'll know, without a doubt, if Alex Smith will be our QB for the next decade at the end of this year.
1) Matthews wouldn't have been there at 28.
ReplyDelete2) We only jumped 16 spots, but I'm ok with jumping 16 and getting the guy than jumping 10 spots and risking missing out on the guy.
3) We need a RB, Matthews is supposed to be a good RB. Now we need a DT. I wouldn't be surprised if we traded back into the second round for Terrence Cody.
As for my other predictions...in order:
ReplyDelete-Wrong. Two trades where a team moved up two spots, but not one.
-Wrong. The Broncos trade up to 25 to draft Tebow.
-Right. I got the easy one to follow up with my guarantee.
-Right. Chargers trade up from 28 to 12 to draft their RB.
-Right. Clausen still hasn't been drafted.
-Wrong. The Big 12 beat the SEC 9-7.
-Wrong. Detroit trading up to #30 to draft Jahvid Best screwed up this prediction.
-Right. San Francisco traded down two sports from 11 to 13 and drafted Anthony Davis.
-Right. The Ravens and Vikings both traded out of the first round.
-Right (I think). The Chargers traded away Tim Dobbins along with other picks to get up to #12.
-Right. 6 defensive, 4 offensive players taken in the top 10.
-Wrong. D>O 18-14.
-Wrong. Stupid Josh McDaniels...he's an idiot and I'm glad the Chargers play him twice a year.
"-Right. San Francisco traded down two sports from 11 to 13 and drafted Anthony Davis."
ReplyDeleteWrong! - they traded up two spots from 13 to 11 to draft Davis.
PS - thanks for the link Royce.
And I'm pretty sure you wouldn't have had to jump 16 spots to get Matthews. The only team you had to keep an eye on was Houston, and I'm not sure they were thinking of jumping up from 20 to get Matthews.
ReplyDeleteDon Banks of SI.com reports that the Giants were going to take Matthews at 15.
ReplyDeleteNo, he's reporting that "According to one league source, San Diego was convinced the No. 15 Giants we re all over Mathews and ready to pounce." (emphasis is mine)
ReplyDeleteBIG difference...
Ok, in three years, I'll come to you and ask if Ryan Matthews was worth jumping 16 spots instead of only 9.
ReplyDeleteMatthews will either be worth almost any pick in the first round or wouldn't be worth any first round pick.
It matters not what he does from here on out; regardless of how well he performs, you still reached too far (and therefore will be paying too much), as I think you could have picked him up in the late teens.
ReplyDeleteHe may very well be worth the pick you took him at, but he'd be worth more (value-wise) if you picked him up at, say, 18th.