FIWK the NFL: Week 9

There weren't very many pictures of Chargers and Packers playing. And there are even fewer stats in this weeks picks. I made my choices mostly based on the spread and location. In general, the underdog wins ATS and loses SU more often than not. So I'll be leaning towards the underdog when I can. And for a little quiz, when picking straight up, I picked every favorite except one. If you can't figure out the underdog I picked to win outright, then shame on you.

BUFFALO (-2) over Nyj: I almost forgot, home teams also win more often than visitors. A pretty good, Freakonomics-like book, Scorecasting, explains that there is a subconscious officials bias to agree with a very one-sided crowd. It's a psychological effect called group think. So a large, loud crowd does not affect the opposing offense, but it does affect the officials in those split-second 50/50 calls. This is the kind of game/spread that the favored home team wins something like 51-54% of the time. All this was a long distraction from the fact that I have no real opinion on this game. Fred Jackson > Dirty Sanchez.

Seattle (+11.5) over DALLAS: And I'm already abandoning the home team thing? No, I think the Cowboys win this game. But that is just too many points. Look at last week. There were three double digit spreads, all three lost ATS. In fact double digit favorites are something like 4-8 ATS. So I feel it should really read: +11.5 over Favorite.

INDIANAPOLIS (+7) over Atlanta: Another case of feeling like too many points AND taking a home-dog. And I really don't know how to feel about the Falcons. There is a 90% chance that Painter will throw at least one long bomb to Pierre Garcon, but only a 60% chance he will catch it.

Miami (+4) over KANSAS CITY: A strange low spread where I picked the favorite SU and the underdog ATS. I will be cheering hard for the Dolphins to take care of an AFC West team, but I think the Dolphins keep the inside track on the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Tampa Bay: It's the home team thing more than anything else. I still think the Saints are the second best team in the NFC. Yes, better than the 49ers and Lions and Giants. Mostly because of how I think they will perform in any given game. I'd pick the Saints to beat any of those previous three teams. And Josh Freeman has been very, very average. He was a late round keeper for me and I already dropped him a while ago, but that was mostly due to having drafted Matthew Stafford.

San Francisco (-3.5) over WASHINGTON: I like how Matthew Berry says the Redskins are going 3-13 the hard way. (If you don't get the joke, they are already 3-4.) The Redskins won't be able to run against the 49ers and they already can't pass. I guess I think their best chance to cover is to lose 10-7.

Cleveland (+11) over HOUSTON: You know what's going to happen, right? Both the Cowboys and the Texans are going to cover their double digit spreads making me look very foolish. But the jokes on them. I don't need these two games to make me look foolish. I've been doing that all season long. And you can meander over to our "US is a Platform" discussion to see more examples of me being foolish.

Cincinnati (+3) over TENNESSEE: Looking at this now, I thought I would have picked the Dalton-Green Bengals over the CJ700 Titans. I mean, I obviously did ATS, but I feel like they have a decent chance to win this outright. It was probably the home team thing that swayed me.

OAKLAND (-8) over Denver: Remember that league where I drafted Matthew Stafford and dropped Josh Freeman? Well the Stafford-Megatron Lions are on Bye, so I am starting Tim Tebow. So I am cheering for the Broncos doubly hard this week. For Tebow to have a good fantasy game (because there's no way he's going to have a good passing game) and lead Denver to a glorious defeat of the Raiders.

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Nyg: Is David Tyree even in the NFL any more? ( No Tyree, no Giants victory...because today, we've just decided to skip ration and logic, can't you tell?

ARIZONA (-2.5) over St. Louis: Man the Rams looked good beating the Saints last week. And the Cardinals looked good bea- almost beating the Ravens last week. Don't let it fool you. Just take the home team and don't tune in.

SAN DIEGO (+5.5) over Green Bay: Of course this is the one underdog I picked to win SU. AND they are at home. Not that being in San Diego is going to do them any good. For the first time, the Chargers coaches are blasting crowd noise at practice in anticipation of a home game. This game sold out easily and it wasn't all Chargers fans...but there's this tiny little feeling I have...the Packers can be thrown on and Rivers is capable of winning a game throwing every down...

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore: This line is exactly right. I might even bet on a push. What kind of odds can I get on a push?

PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) over Chicago: More of a home team call than anything. I think Forte can run and catch against the Eagles linebackers, but Philly looked awfully scary last week.


  1. I'm going to put $20 on every game except SD-GB and PIT-BAL.

  2. Re: NE vs. Nyg, David Tyree may not be playing, but the Giants D-line is playing like they did in the Super Bowl.

  3. Missed getting my picks in as I was building a house. WOOT!

    Would have gone with:

    Chiefs -4: I just think (thought?) KC was a better team, by a good margin.

    Broncos +8: Raiders have Palmer and don't have McFadden; bad combination. Even if your Tebow Bingo link was priceless.

    Niners -4: It was fun to watch this line bet towards the 'Skins early on, only to get pounded back towards the Niners come Sunday.

    Aaron - thoughts on the Chargers playoff chances given this past weekend? Played Packers tough & your West counterparts laid a collective stinker

  4. Losing to the 8-0 Packers = totally understandable. Having the Chiefs lose at home to the previously winless Dolphins and the Raiders losing to the Broncos? Definitely encouraging for the Chargers to make the playoffs. We're only a game back from the #2 seed.

  5. The three leaders of the AFC North have 6 wins each. The three leaders of the AFC East are exactly 5-3. The three leaders of the AFC West are 4-4. That's nine teams fighting for five spots and only one AFC North team gets the #1 seed.

  6. Everyone else forgot to make picks. I made twelve. We all ended up in the exact same spot for the week as I went 6-6.

  7. I have missed picks a couple times this year, but I am relatively confident I can still beat you all. Just putting that out there.