FIWK the NFL: Week 12

That picture looks familiar. Maybe it's because I used the same exact picture seven weeks ago. but it's such a great picture for the Chargers vs. Broncos matchup. I mean, I guess I could have gone with Ryan Mathews. Or any of the photos from the game. But I really like this standard photo of the line of scrimmage with the offensive lineman facing the defensive linemen. And when I get a chance to use it, I jump at the opportunity. Last week I was 10-4 SU, 7-5-2 ATS and 4-2-1 in games I chose to put $ on. You know what, that doesn't suck. So let's keep the not sucking going on.

DETROIT (+6) over Green Bay: I am really excited about football on Thanksgiving. I LOVE the NFL, but you know what I like more than watching NFL games? Actually playing in football games. So tomorrow morning, while the Packers and Lions kick off at 9:30am Pacific time, I will be at some random field in San Francisco playing touch football. My priorities, in order, 1) Don't injure anyone. 2) As quarterback, make sure everyone on my team gets a catch. 3) Win. 4) Don't get injured myself. As for the Packers-Lions, the spread is three points too high.

Miami (+7) over DALLAS: So Does Miami suck or don't they? Are they an 0-7 team or a 3-0 kind of team? They should have stuck with being an 0-7 team, because this was the one team that was at the perfect nexus of sucking really bad AND needing a quarterback, meaning they should have been striving for Andrew Luck. But I guess Tony Sparano wants to keep his job (weird, huh?) and will get these guys to win another game or two. I'm not saying they win this one, just that they shouldn't be 7 point underdogs.

San Francisco (+3.5) over BALTIMORE: So, in the three Thanksgiving games, I'm picking the underdog in all three. I am going to go either 2-1 or 1-1-1 on these three picks. One favorite is going to blow out the underdog, one favorite is going to lose outright in a close game and one favorite is going to win a close game. But I don't know which is which. As the the Har-bowl, I kind of wish the head coached weren't brothers because this would be an amazing game without that media-overblown subplot. Which Ravens team shows up? The team that is 5-0 at home and defeated the Steelers twice? Or the team that lost to the Seahawks and Jaguars? I remember having the same exact questions last week when the Ravens were favored by 7...and they won by exactly seven, providing no insight whatsoever.

Minnesota (+9.5) over ATLANTA: Atlanta is a 5.5-4.5 team masquerading as a 6-4 team. The 2-8 Vikings really should be 3-7. What, those aren't really big differences? Atlanta should be favored by 7.5. That's not very far from the 9.5? Ok, I got nothing else. Feels really close. Atlanta wins outright, but do they win by 7 or 10?

CINCINNATI (-7) over Cleveland: I remember when both Ohio teams wore orange and sucked. Why do they both wear orange? This spread is right on. No value here.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Tampa Bay: I like that Matthew Berry called this the only other time Chris Johnson has a good game. Remember when I said he was going to have to change his nickname to CJ700? I was wrong. At 50.9 yards per game, he is currently on pace for 814 yards. Will you take him in the third round of your fantasy draft next year? Maybe...if it's late in the third round.

Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS: You know what Cam Newton needs to do to win in the NFL? Play really, really crappy teams. Jaguars? Check. Redskins? Check. Colts? Check.

Arizona (Off(0)) over ST. LOUIS: I don't know why this game is Off? Is there really that big of a difference between Kolb and Skelton?

Buffalo (+9) over NYJ: I don't know how to feel about this game. Are the Bills the team that started 4-1 or the team that is 1-4 since then? And the Jets don't exactly inspire confidence either. And apparently Fred Jackson is out for this game. So why am I picking the Jets? I guess because it makes sense that two 5-5 teams should have a spread closer to 3 or 3.5 So maybe I'm just enjoying 9 points and predicting something like a 17-10 game. Yeah, that sounds plausible. You believe me, right?

Houston (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE: Houston's defense carries them in this surprisingly low scoring game.

OAKLAND (-4.5) over Chicago: This is the one game that I went against the stats and it is solely because of Jay Cutler's injury. Why did his broken thumb allow him to continue to play against the Chargers, but not the Raiders? This season sucks. Wait, back to my going against the number. Why discount the Bears, but not the Texans or Cardinals? Mostly because the Rams and Jaguars su-, are cra-...hmmm, I need another adjective... lack victorious qualities.

Washington (+3.5) over SEATTLE: Do I ask a lot of rhetorical questions? Well, I'm 8/10 on using rhetorical questions when commenting on the matchups, so yes. I guess that's just my style. Use a rhetorical question, use a stat that depends on just enough research to make you think I do a lot more research than I actually do. Continue rambling about a tangent or an aside that does not really impact the game or my decision making process. Remember that I should be talking about the game. Realize the game/matchup suc- is a bad one and why I started rambling in the first place. Try to think of another adjective to replace "sucks". End with one line about the game. This spread should be under 3.

New England (Off(0)) over PHILADELPHIA: I will pick the Patriots whether or not Vick is healthy. But I guess this is off because the Patriots would be a 3-4 point favorite with Vick in the game and 6-10 point favorites with Vick out of the game. New England wins this 65% of the time, which means I take the Patriots if the line comes out at 6.5 or less and I take the Eagles if the line is greater than 7.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Denver: I'm only a little bit of a homer this week, instead of the huge homer I was the last two weeks.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY: This is just barely lower than the line probably should be. I say it should at least 11. Not much of a difference. Staying away from this one. Steelers win easily...although...the Chiefs are still using Tyler Palko...hmmm... so my number say the Steelers should be 11 point favorites based on the Chief's performance with Matt Cassel... but he's out...maybe there is some opportunity here...

Nyg (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: Should be a great game. I think the Saints win, but the Giants cover. Should be an interesting contrast of styles. The Giants should be able to pressure with four down linemen. Brees is still completing 70% of his passes while leading the league in attempts. I don't know if the Giants linebackers or safeties can help us much stopping Sproles and Graham in the passing game. But we're going to look the other way. How will the Saints defense hold up against the Giants offense? Not as well as you think. The Giants will have an effective balance of run with Bradshaw and Jacobs and passing with Nicks, Cruz and Manningham.