NFL Week 16: I don't wanna

It's the Friday before a four day Christmas weekend.  The Chargers were officially eliminated with their (what's a worse word than lackluster..embarrassing? humiliating? shaming?) humiliating performance against the Panthers last week.  I didn't even bother calculating the Pythagorean winning % (and it only takes me about five minutes to paste everything into my proprietary Excel spreadsheet).  I'm just going to Football Outsiders picks this week.

DETROIT (+3.5) over Atlanta: One of the things I liked about FO's picks were that they were a little heavy on the underdog.  In a league where any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday, I like points.  You know what I don't like? Matthew Stafford having the 4th most passing yards and the 22nd most passing touchdowns.  He killed my otherwise dominant fantasy keeper team.  That's right, I can already feel this post is going to have a lot of complaining about my fantasy teams.  Either get used to it, or get out.  WAIT!!  Don't leave, I'll at least try to make it funny and entertaining.  Please don't go.
Bold Prediction: Calvin Johnson has 11 catches for 225 yards to break Jerry Rice's record for receiving yards in a single season.

New Orleans (+2.5) over DALLAS: Ha ha suckers.  You're hooked.  I may not even talk about football in this football column.  I may just use it as a way to talk about my life in general.  Whatever pops into my head when I look at the matchup.  Like how Tony Romo is third in the league in passing yards.  And Sean Payton is technically a free agent as a head coach.  Other than Nick Saban and Chip Kelly, this list is pretty accurate of coaches Chargers fans want.  Don't worry, Chargers fans are used to getting their hopes up before having them dashed quite expertly.  Lay off Tony Romo.  He's a good quarterback and not the reason the Cowboys have issues.  Also, how the hell did the Saints shut out the Bucs last week?  But we'll get into that later.

Tennessee (+12.5) over GREEN BAY: If I had to guess, I feel like the Packers have a losing record against the spread this year.  It seems the public is remembering the team that went 15-1 last year after winning the Super Bowl the previous season.  I see a team with no running game, less of a defense and 5 good wide receivers hurt.  I'm not even sure who is active this week.  (If I had done better in fantasy, I guarantee I would know exactly who was active.)  Between Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, I can't figure out who will be drafted first among Packers WRs next year.  Will it be the guy leading the league in receiving touchdowns, the guy leading the Packers WRs in fantasy points, the guy who scored 15 TDs in 2011, or the only one of the four with multiple thousand yard season?  And yes, those are all different guys.

KANSAS CITY (+6.5) over Indianapolis: Brady Quinn vs. Andrew Luck.  Dwayne Bowe [I can't come up with another Chiefs receiver] vs. Reggie Wayne.  Jamaal Charles vs. Vick Ballard.  Jamaal Charles is another one.  A great fantasy keeper who carried me through the regular season, then disappeared in the fantasy semifinals.  Do I get mad at him for his one poorly timed bad day, or thank him for doing so well throughout the season?  Right now, I'm mad.  I'll feel better when I draft him in the 10th round next year.  I actually picked up Alfred Morris (undrafted) and traded him for Jamaal Charles.  Who will be a better keeper next year, Alfred Morris in the 15th round or Jamaal Charles in the 10th round?

Buffalo (+4.5) over MIAMI: CJ Spiller was the next part of the core of my great regular season fantasy team.  Jamaal Charles and CJ Spiller.  It kind of felt like the 14-2 Chargers who lost their first playoff game.  Does that count as a great team or a disappointing team?  Or both?  In fact, doesn't it have to be both? I would have loved to be in the finals with CJ Spiller in my flex spot.  Did that sound a little dirtier than I meant?  I don't think so.  Flex spot is a very common phrase in fantasy football.  Have the Dolphins been officially eliminated from AFC playoff contention?  Is it just the Steelers and Bengals fighting for the last spot?

San Diego (+2) over NYJ: So Norv Turner told the San Diego media that a running back breaking a clavicle was such a freak injury he couldn't remember seeing it before in his career until Ryan Mathews broke his collarbone in the preseason.  Last week, he broke the other one.  That's right.  The guy we traded up in the first round to acquire has broken both his collarbones in a four month span.  I'm sure there's an analogy for the Charger's season somewhere in there.  When I watch this game on Sunday, I'll really be hoping for another buttfumble.  That's just too good.

Washington (-6.5) over PHILADELPHIA: RGIII vs. Vick's backup!!  The battle of rookie quarterbacks!  It would be fun to see the Redskins in the playoffs and even more enjoyable to see the Giants knocked out.  Or the Cowboys could make it?  These three teams are tied atop the division at 8-6 (and tied with Minnesota and Chicago for the second wild card spot).  How awesome would a five way tie for a playoff spot be?  Well, maybe not that awesome.  I don't want to have to consult conference record or offensive touchdowns scored.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH: aM i DONE YET? What!?!?  I'm not even half way?  So apparently the winner of this game gets the second wild card spot in the AFC.  Unless The Bengals win in week 17 and the Steelers lose.  Then this doesn't matter, but if the Bengals win tomorrow, they lock up the 6th playoff spot.  And yes, I made this intentionally confusing.  How boring would it be if the playoff seeds were all decided going into week 17.  Really boring.

St. Louis (+3) over TAMPA BAY: You know what would be truly awesome? The Redskins, Giants, Cowboys, Bears, and Vikings all losing two games and the Rams win two and they make the playoffs because of their tie.  I guess the Bucs could make the playoffs with all the same things happening, but I don't care to look up their tiebreakers.In fact, it's still possible for seven teams in the NFC to finish at 8-8.

CAROLINA (-9) OVER Oakland:  Wow, apparently Oakland is really bad.

JACKSONVILLE (+14.5) over New England: Too many points.

Minnesota (+8) over HOUSTON: Too many points.

Cleveland (+13) over DENVER: Too many point.

ARIZONA (+5.5) over Chicago:  Too many- wait, it's only 5.5.  The team that Bill Barnwell called the best in football not too many weeks ago is favored by less than a touchdown over the team that went from 4-0 to 4-9 faster than [insert funny simile here]...and I'm taking the red punch lines?  I might have to Tweet Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders if this doesn't come know because he was nice enough to provide his Premium picks to the public for free this week (sorry about the server issues Aaron) and then has the gall to be wrong?  That dog won't hunt monsieur.

Nyg (-2) over BALTIMORE: That too many point set up and joke saved me a lot of time.  Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing the Patriots in the seeding and the Giants would miss the playoffs would make me just as happy.  I mean, not super excited, but the too many points gag didn't make me that happy in the first place.  You know what a wounded soldier is?  I'm working on one right now.

SEATTLE (0) over San Francisco:  Wow...I mean, I know last week I had the 49ers as the second best team and the Seahawks as the third best team, and home field advantage will likely be greater than the difference between these two teams, but to actually pick the Seahawks to be the 49ers?  That's some objective cajones.  (And yes, in the sense I am using both words, that is an oxymoron.) [Because I'm sure that's the first thing you thought of also.]


  1. $20 on Cincinnati, Seattle, Cleveland, San Diego.

  2. Hahaha ... I loved it this week. Maybe it turns out disgruntled Aaron is funny Aaron? Your "too many point" joke and ensuing riff just slayed me, I was laughing out loud.

    Also, we can all agree we want more buttfumble. That is the perfect image to capture the Jets season. I wish the Chargers had a more entertaining image that captured their crap season than "twice broken clavicle". We can't even lose in an entertaining way.

    I'm taking $100 on NE -14.5, $100 on SF pick em, and $100 on Washington -6.5.

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  4. I start the week with $690, which includes a few self imposed fines. Even if I were to win every pick this week I'd still be trailing the inimitable MP.

  5. $50 each on te Saints, Dolphins, Ravens, and Jags.

    Disgruntled Aaron >funny than normal Aaron. You had me at "Don't go."

  6. I went 3-1. Up $40 to $1,030 and past MP.

    Don't worry, I'll be following Ted Williams path next week.

  7. I went 1-2, losing an additional $100 down to $590. And I didn't even remember to put $10 on the Chargers just so I could get back to an even, rounded hundred digit. Drat.

    Seeing the Niners get absolutely handled by Seattle in that fashion genuinely surprised me. They looked like they weren't in the same class. Granted it was in Seattle, but still.

  8. Was at $855, but I believe I went 4 for 4 this week, so I'm up above the M(P)endoza line suckas!

    I'm now at $1,055 leaving me and the Aaron in a fun season-ending showdown.

    How sad is it that the AFC playoffs are already solidified (minus seeding)?