NFL Week 15: 0.6%

0.6%.  With the Bengals victory over the Eagles, the odds of the Chargers making the playoffs dropped from 1.5% to 0.6%.  I know, I can't help myself.  If the Chargers win out, the Steelers lose this weekend, then beat the Bengals, then lose week 17, and the Bengals lose their last two games, and the Dolphins, Jets, and Browns don't do anything crazy, the Chargers could still get the 6th seed.  Just kill me now.

Cincinnati (-4.5) over PHILADELPHIA:  Apparently, just because I want a team to lose really, really badly, it doesn't happen that way.  Who knew?
Not So Bold Prediction: I don't make a Not So Bold Prediction or Bold Prediction for every game.
Bold Prediction: The Law Firm has 25 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown...actually that's not very Bold at all. In fact, if you had to make a baseline prediction for his stats, wouldn't you guess 25 carries for 100 yards (4.0 yards per rush) and a touchdown?

Not So Bold Prediction: Julio Jones or Roddy White or Victor Cruz catches a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: One of those guys catches two touchdowns, another catches one and the third guy catches none.  Then Eli Manning goes wee wee wee all the way home.

CHICAGO (+3) over Green Bay: By the numbers, I think the Bears win outright.  Subjectively, I would probably go with the Packers.  Because they have Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler is iffy at best.  But that's why I go with the numbers.  They are actually my most confident pick and I will be putting big (for me) $ on them below.  Because the Packers' defense and running game isn't that good and the Bears have a good solid all around team.
Not So Bold Prediction: Aaron Rodgers throws a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: The Bears win outright.

CLEVELAND (Off(0)) over Washington: I've also seen Washington favored by one point.  Without RGIII, I'm just hoping the Browns lose.  With RGIII I'm hoping the Redskins defeat the Browns in spectacular fashion.

Minnesota (+3) over ST. LOUIS: So, that Adrian Peterson was pretty good.  Wasn't he drafted fifth overall?  I happen to know that LaDainian Tomlinson was drafted fifth overall.  There might be something special about a running back being drafted fifth overall.  Although Cadillac Williams was drafted fifth overall...and I don't even know if he's still in the NFL.

MIAMI (-7) over Jacksonville: The AFC battle for Florida!  Miami is significantly further south than Jacksonville, who resides in the AFC South.  If this was baseball, the commissioner's office would be trying to force feed the Dolphins, Jaguars and Bucs as regional rivals.  Just like how the San Diego Padres play the Seattle Seahawks every year while A's play the Giants and the Angels play the Dodgers.

Bold Prediction: The NFL forgets to show this game.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS: I think the Bucs still have a chance to make the playoffs, so this game matters?  But I don't care enough to go check.

BALTIMORE (+2.5) over Denver: Now this should be a good game.  Do the Ravens get exposed against a Super Bowl contender like the Texans were last week?  Do the Ravens step up to secure the 3 seed to face the suddenly vulnerable Texans in the 2nd round?  Does this plan backfire when the Texans keep the 1 seed by beating the Colts and their negative point differential twice?  Does Peyton Manning show Joe Flacco what a real quarteback looks like?  At least, that's the line I imagine old narrative-driven sports writers, like Peter King, using.

Indianapolis (+8.5) over HOUSTON: I really learned to dislike narrative-driven analysis this year.  Are the Texans still angry over the beatdown the Patriots gave them and take that anger out on the Colts?  Are the Texans stumbling just as the playoffs come into picture?  Will the Colts be inspired by Chuckstrong?  No.  The Texans and Patriots are pretty close in abilities and the Patriots had a better game plan.  The Colts should be down where the Chargers are and the Chargers should be up where the Steelers are.
Not So Bold Prediction: That's not the last time I tangentially mention the Chargers in an unrelated game.

Seattle (-5.5) over BUFFALO: Football Outsiders has the Seahawks as the second best team in the NFL behind the Patriots.  Pythagorean winning percentage has them third behind the 49ers.  That's right, if things hold, I'll be taking the Seahawks over Chicago, NYG, Atlanta, and Green Bay.  And those teams are better than the Bills.

ARIZONA (-6) over Detroit: Really?, six points...

SAN DIEGO (-3) over Carolina: Two depressing teams just playing out the season...  But it will be fun to watch Cam Newton.  You know, as long as he has some amazing plays and comes up juuuuust short.

DALLAS (+1.5) over Pittsburgh: Come on Cowboys!!!  America's Team!!  Troy Aikman and stuff!!  Dez Bryant is going to show Mike Wallace how to play through pain.  Tony Romo isn't going to choke until the playoffs.  Home field advantage defines this game.

OAKLAND (-3) over Kansas City: Come on Jamaal Charles!!  Yeah fantasy football!!  Is there any other reason anyone would care about this game?

San Francisco (+5.5) over NEW ENGLAND: My number one and number two teams.  Home field advantage isn't enough to cover 5.5.  But Its possible that Tom Brady and a great Patriots offense is good enough.  In the old narrative days this would be all about Tom Brady and the Patriot's offense vs. a 49ers defense allowing the fewest points in the league...which means we look the other way.  How the 49ers offense does against the Patriots defense will determine this game.  I think Jim Harbaugh and Colin Kapernick are creative enough, but Bill Belichek could gameplan Kapernick into a couple turnovers.

Nyj (+1.5) over TENNESSEE:  So NBC gets the New England Patriots hosting the San Francisco 49ers in a potential Super Bowl preview...and ESPN gets two of the worst seven teams in football?  I guess they need to pay a little more to get the good games.  Altough, it wouldn't really surprise anyone if the Patriots won in a blowout and this was an entertaining, competitive game.  You know what the world needs?  More Mark Sanchez butt fumbles.  That was hilarious.


  1. $40 on Chicago, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Minnesota.

    $20 on San Diego, Arizona, NY Jets, Seattle.

  2. L,L,W,W

    I was exactly even on the week...just like everyone else...
    Still at $990.

    Helloooo?!? Anyone out there?

  3. I am here! Hello world! (I forget how to link to things in the comments section or else I totally would've linked to the first-ever FIWK post there.) [(Actually I kind of remember how to link, I'm just too lazy.)] {[(Excessive parentheticals are fun.)]}

    Week 12 was the last time I picked, and I lost $100 that week, so I now have $790 and I suck. I'm deducting $50 a week for the past two weeks when I made no picks. I am at $690 and suck even more.

    Now the immortal MP will definitely beat me. The only question is if I have more than $0 by season end. I am feeling REALLY good about this coming week, though.

  4. Also, is ANYBODY beating the immortal MP at this point? I think the lesson, as always, is that we are dumb.