NFL Week 8: I lost hope

Two, horrible, HORRIBLE weeks in a row and never hearing anything from the people at Grantland has led me to give up hope with talking about fantasy.  And going straight off my statistical analysis means I don't even get to make fun observations about the game.  I want to enjoy this.  But my daughter is just so cute and fun I don't even start until after she goes to bed.  I'm not going to lie...this is getting hard.  I'll definitely play out this season and maybe reducing the high expectations I have of myself will allow me to enjoy it a little more.  And Royce's best comments are about the funny lines I add, not the Pythgorean lines.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) over MINNESOTA: I figured the Vikings would win but not cover.  At 3-4 the Bucs still aren't going to make the playoffs (because the Falcons are winning the south and the Bucs aren't overcoming the Packers, Vikings or Cardinals for the wild card), BUT this does hurt the Vikings shot at the wild card.  You know what you don't like to see if you're the Vikings, trailing the best team in football? A team that went 15-1 last year and won the Super Bowl two years ago breathing down your neck.  Also, remember, Vincent Jackson scores 18 or 4, nothing in between. ( wasn't 18)
Not So Bold Prediction: Adrian Peterson scores a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: Doug Martin has 29 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown and 3 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown.

CHICAGO (-7.5) over Carolina: I actually agree with Bill Barnwell.  The Bears defense has been better than the 49ers and their offense has been better than the Packers.  I sure wish Michael Bush would vulture a few more rushing touchdowns.  I heard that Ron Rivers wants Jonathan Stewart to get most of the carries.  I'll believe it as soon as my waiver claim for Jonathan Stewart comes through....checking... this is going to continue to be the highest dollar per yard time share in the history of the NFL.
Not So Bold Prediction: Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both get at least one carry.
Bold Prediction: The Bears have more return yards than the Panthers have passing yards.

San Diego (-2.5) over CLEVELAND: Despite two epic collapses and a bye week, the Chargers still have a positive point differential.  Despite the worst record in the league, the Browns are actually the best 1 win team.  If the Chargers lose to a 1-6 team...
Not So Bold Prediction: The Chargers win because expectations are so low.
Bold Prediction: In fact, this is exactly the kind of game the Chargers win by two scores making you think they are a legitimate playoff contender.

Seattle (+1.5) over DETROIT: This line opened at 3 and moved towards the Seahawks all week.  That's because the Seahawks are the better team and are going to win outright.
Not So Bold Prediction: Calvin Johnson does something Megatron-ish or Marshawn Lynch does something Beast Mode-like
Bold Prediction: Beast Mode > Megatron.

Jacksonville (+15.5) over GREEN BAY: Too many points.  Green Bay only wins by 10.  And I need Aaron Rodgers to keep averaging 4.5 touchdowns a game.
Not So Bold Prediction: Aaron Rodgers throws a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: Rashad Jennings scores a touchdown.

Indianapolis (+3.5) over TENNESSEE: The Colts are going to win outright, because the Colts are less bad than the Titans.
Not So Bold Prediction: This game goes over (I don't know what the O/U is).
Bold Prediction: Chris Johnson has his second best fantasy day of the year.

ST. LOUIS (+7) over New England: I had to remember to undo the home field advantage adjustment for the Rams because this game is in London.  I can't imagine the British are all of a sudden pro-St. Louis...but I guess there could be some two centuries old animosity towards a team named the New England Patriots?
Not So Bold Prediction: Tom Brady throws a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: This game is a surprising defensive slugfest.

Miami (+2) over NYJ: Miami is 3-3, the Jets are 3-4.  Miami has a positive point differential, the Jets' is negative.  In New Jersey, this is a 50/50 game.  I'll take the miniscule points.  I like Reggie Bush in this game and not much else.
Not So Bold Prediction: New York either covers or loses outright.
Bold Prediction: Reggie Bush scores 12 fantasy points.

Atlanta (+2) over PHILADELPHIA: I really don't get how the betting public has made the Eagles the favorite?  I get that not everyone thinks the Falcons undefeated record means they are the best team in the NFL (I'm one of those people), but who thinks the Eagles are actually better than them?  Is Andy Reid's record after a bye that important?
Not So Bold Prediction: Matt Ryan throws a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: Julio Jones or Roddy White scores two touchdowns.

Washington (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH: If I was to cheer for another NFL...I could see cheering for the Washington RGIII's.  This actually feels a little like the Dolphins-Jets matchup in terms of records.  The Steelers are appropriately favored, but they should only be favored by 3.
Not So Bold Prediction: RGIII runs for a first down.
Bold Prediction: The two QBs combine for 600 yards passing.

Oakland (+1) over KANSAS CITY: I really don't care who wins.  As long as both teams looks bad.  But I guess I think the Raiders have fewer turnovers.
Not So Bold Prediction: There is at least one turnover.
Bold Prediction: There is a defensive or special teams touchdown.  This isn't really a prediction that one of these return teams looks good.  It's that the offenses and coverage teams are that bad.

Nyg (-1.5) over DALLAS: The Cowboys opened as a 1 point favorite and now they are 1.5 point underdogs.  The Giants are going to win by a touchdown...but I guess it still would have been nice to have the Giants +1.
Not So Bold Prediction: Victor Cruz catches a pass.
Bold Prediction: The Giants win by exactly 7.

New Orleans (+6) over DENVER: I know, I'm just as surprised as you.  I mean, I really, really, really want the Saints to beat the Broncos, but that doesn't mean I should be making an illogical decision.  I have the Broncos winning 69% of the time in Denver, but this corresponds to a 5.5 point favorite, not 6.  Go Saints!!!
Not So Bold Prediction: Drew Brees throws a touchdown.  (This just might be my least bold prediction.)
Bold Prediction: The two QBs combine for 800 yards passing.

ARIZONA (+6.5) over San Francisco: I don't like this pick at all.  Maybe that's why I've given up hope with this?  I guess I'm saying the 49ers win by 5, but that's just weird.  22-17?  15-10?  I'm trying to figure out a plausible 5 point margin of victory.  I guess I could see David Akers 5 field goals outscoring Larry Fitzgerald's one touchdown.
Not So Bold Prediction: San Francisco wins.
Bold Prediction: There are no interceptions in this game.


  1. $20 on Atlanta, Chicago, NYG, Indianapolis, Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa Bay (ok, fine, you don't have to give this one to me), and Jacksonville.

  2. I would have bet a lot on the Pats -7 in London, but I didn't see this in time.

    I am putting $50 on SF -6.5. I really think they will dismantle this crappy Cardinals team.

    By the way, 35-30 seems like a plausible margin of victory.

  3. I'm so ridiculously nervous about tonight's game, it's insane. Too much good has happened to SF this past weekend. There's no way the 9ers can maintain their dominance over the Cardinals, right?

    Ergo, $30 on Cards +6.5. (also, I think this will be too low-scoring to cover a TD on the road)

  4. I went 4-3 to go from $910 to $930. I feel like I can win a war of attrition at this rate.

  5. Someone hide the scissors.

    Was at $885. Lost $30. Down to $855.