NFL 2012 Week 7: I got nothing

Last week was hard as a Chargers fan.  I made myself cookies after the game to try and cheer myself up a little bit.  The Chargers losing a division game at home after leading 24-0 at halftime actually made me forget just how bad my picks were last week.  I was 3-5 ATS after the morning games, then went 1-5 ATS for the rest of the week.  I even went 4-10 straight up.  How does that happen?  It's really hard to try and be funny when you're depressed.  It looks like I'm picking a lot of underdogs this week, so hopefully that will cheer me up.

Seattle (+7.5) over SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers will win outright, but this line is right on.  I mean, I'm taking the Seahawks by the slimmest of margins.  The 49ers should win 73.5% of the time and a 7 point favorite should win 74.3% of the time.  The slimmest of margins.
Fantasy: You started Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch.  Sidney Rice was Questionable and Golden Tate was Doubtful.  You're probably stuck with Vernon Davis.  He's too talented to just drop, but not performing well enough to get fair value in a trade.
Not So Bold Prediction: Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch combine for 30 carries.
Bold Prediction: The line moves from 7 to 7.5 on Thursday.  The Seahwaks are losing by 7, then commit a penalty in the endzone for a safety on 4th down to put the 49ers up by 9.  But since they didn't convert the 4th down, instead of giving them a chance at an onside free kick (punt), Jim Harbuagh declines the penalty, taking the points off the board and after the turnover on downs, takes a knee to end the game, turning a 49ers 9 point cover to a Seahawks +7.5 winner.

BUFFALO (-3.5) over Tennessee: Despite their narrow 3 point victory last week over the [weakened] Steelers, the Titans are bad.  A bottom 5 team in the NFL.  The Bills are only a bottom 10 team.  That and home field advantage gives them the win.
Fantasy: Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller push each other down to Probable.  The Titans push Steve Johnson up to definite starter.  I like Scott Chandler as a bye week fill in for Antonio Gates.  I cannot figure out Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Jared Cook or Kendall Wright.  I keep adding and dropping Wright.  I hold on to Britt, but never start him.  Cook was my starter in Week 1, then dropped, then picked back up, then dropped again this week.  Chris Johnson is Questionable until further notice.  Too good to ever be Out and too bad to ever be automatic or even Probable.
Not So Bold Prediction: Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller outrush Chris Johnson.
Bold Prediction: Scott Chandler catches a touchdown.

Cleveland (+2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS:  Wasn't it just last week I was saying the Colts would beat the Jets?  And now I'm taking the Browns over them?  The Colts, Browns and Jets were all pretty close and if nothing else, I incorporate new information into my analysis.  The Colts lost by 26 and the Browns won by 10.
Fantasy: Reggie Wayne, Trent Richardson automatic.  Andrew Luck is Probable.  Vick Ballard is Questionable.  Donnie Avery is Doubtful.
Not So Bold Prediction: Reggie Wayne catches a pass.
Bold Prediction: Cleveland wins outright.

ST. LOUIS (+5.5) over Green Bay: If Aaron Rodgers throws 6 TDs again, it will be pretty hard for the Rams to get within a touchdown.
Fantasy: Aaron Rodgers gets his own special super tier.  Greg Jennings is out, Jordy Nelson is always automatic, and Randall Cobb and James Jones are going to be Probable most weeks.  No one on the Rams is Probable because Danny Amendola still leads the team in every receiving stat including broken clavicles.  Steven Jackson is Questionable.
Not So Bold Prediction: Aaron Rodgers throws a touchdown pass.
Bold Prediction: Aaron Rodgers rushes for a touchdown.

Arizona (+6) over MINNESOTA: The Vikings are better and win outright, but not 6 points better.
Fantasy: Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Percy Harvin.  Kyle Rudolph and his 5 TDs are Probable.  I'm trying to think of how many weeks it will take before I upgrade Andre Roberts to Questionable or flat out drop him.  I really want to drop him.
Not So Bold Prediction: Larry Fitzgerald catches a pass.
Bold Prediction: Percy Harvin has more total yards than Arizona has passing yards.

Washington (+5.5) over NYG: I'm actually surprised by this.  I have the Giants as a pretty good team, playing at home.  But this should only be a 4.5 spread and I'm barely getting 1 point of value.
Fantasy: RGIII might be on the same tier as Aaron Rodgers, but its more likely that RGIII is on the same tier as Cam Newton... and Eli Manning  Alfred Morris is the only other automatic Redskin.  Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are automatic for the Giants.  Ahmad Bradshaw is Probable, Andre Brown is Questionable and David Wilson is Doubtful.
Not So Bold Prediction: Victor Cruz catches a pass.
Bold Prediction: Victor Cruz does a little salsa dance.

TAMPA BAY (+2) over New Orleans:  Apparently beating the Chargers just isn't that big of a deal.
Fantasy: Drew Brees, Doug Martin, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham (if he plays).  Vincent Jackson has gone 4, 18, 2, 16, 0 (Bye), even though you're expecting 18 against a bad Saints defense, I'm guessing he goes for 2 this week...but you're starting him anyways.  Oh, and LaGarrette Blount has joined Lance Moore at Questionable.
Not So Bold Prediction: Drew Brees throws a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: Vincent Jackson scores exactly 2 or 18.

CAROLINA (+2) over Dallas:  Carolina isn't good, but Dallas isn't either.  At home Carolina should be favored by a point.
Fantasy: Cam Newton is still starting, but isn't the top 5 QB you drafted.  Tony Romo isn't the QB you drafted either...but he is this week.  Steve Smith is quietly having a kind of disappointing year.  DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are having horrible fantasy years and are being very loud about it.  At least Steve Smith is courteous about it.  With DeMarco Murray out, Felix Jones was the big pick up and is Probable this week.  Dez Bryant is automatic while Miles Austin has been downgraded from automatic to Probable.  Jason Witten is a TE.  I'm starting to feel like commenting on TEs is a waste of time.  The top few are automatic starts and anyone else is interchangeable.  You're starting the guy on your team and there probably isn't anyone on the waiver wire worth picking up.
Not So Bold Prediction: Cam Newton runs the ball.
Bold Prediction: Cam Newton leads the Panthers in rushing.

Baltimore (+6.5) over HOUSTON: I'm not penalizing the Texans for letting Aaron Rodgers throw for 6 TDs last week.  The Ravens are just that close.  In Houston, they should only be a 3.5 point favorite.
Fantasy: It looks like the Texans defense will help Arian Foster beat Ray Rice in this battle of fantasy super stars.  Torrey Smith is getting the TDs while Anquan Boldin is getting the yards.  Arian Foster's success means Andre Johnson continues to disappoint and Matt Schaub does not exceed his low expectations.  Owen Daniels and Dennis Pitta are TEs and I refuse to establish an opinion.
Not So Bold Prediction: Arian Foster and Ray Rice combine for 20 carries.
Bold Prediction: Arian Foster and Ray Rice combine for 40 fantasy points.

OAKLAND (-4) over Jacksonville:  Earlier, I wanted to say the Titans were the worst team in the NFL, but that title currently belongs to the Jaguars.  I still have no idea how Maurice Jones-Drew led the league in rushing last year.
Fantasy: MJD automatic.  Darren McFadden is automatic talent-wise, but only Probable numbers-wise.
Not So Bold Prediction: MJD and Darren McFadden both catch a pass.
Bold Prediction: I actually watch this game on TV.  (It's Bold because it's probably not going to happen.)

Nyj (+10.5) over New England:  This double digit spread is 3 points too high.
Fantasy: All your Patriots.  None of your Jets.  If you have Shonn Greene, you should trade him while his value is at an all time high.  You don't want him on your team.
Not So Bold Prediction: Tom Brady throws a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: Tom Brady throws three touchdowns and Mark Sanchez throws an interception.

CINCINNATI (+1.5) over Pittsburgh:  Home field advantage says the Bengals should be favored by half a point.  Seriously, he stopped by and told me himself.
Fantasy: With Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman out this week, Jonathan Dwyer gets the start and he's probably on your waiver wire.  That doesn't mean you should start him, but I'm making sure to educate you.  Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are getting enough targets to make them both automatic.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis won't fear the injured Steelers defense.  AJ Green will put up even better numbers.  I'm starting Andrew Hawkins, but I think that's more because I picked him up a few weeks ago and I'm just too lazy to go diving into the free agent pool.

CHICAGO (-6.5) over Detroit: I actually agree with Bill Barnwell that the Bears are the best team in the NFL.  The Lions aren't even in the top half.  The Bears win by double digits.
Fantasy: Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall.  Matthew Stafford is Probable.  Jay Cutler is Questionable with six teams on bye.  Michael Bush just isn't getting used in the offense very much with Matt Forte excelling and this downgrades him to Doubtful.
Not So Bold Prediction: Bears win.
Bold Prediction: Bears win by double digits.

Remember, my favorite team lost by 11 after leading 24-0 at halftime.  That's the kind of energy I had when writing this.


  1. Wow you bold prediction for Minnesota is crazy. Like Carly Rae Jepsen crazy. If that comes true I will award you $20 of my fake picks money.

    Also your "he stopped by and told me himself" line was so dumb that it just killed me. Somehow you were funnier than you thought. Your self doubt kinda worked in your favor too. Picks to follow.

  2. I also enjoyed your running TE joke.

  3. $20 on NYG -5.5, $20 on Baltimore +6.5, and $40 on Pitt -1.5. Is Pitt really that bad that they only get only lay a point and a half to Cincy?

  4. $25 on Buffalo, Baltimore, and NYG.

    I'm glad I didn't get my Niners pick in in-time. That was a depressing non-cover...

  5. I'll put $50 on the Bears -6.5... only because I forgot to make my picks again. That's what happens when I finish this column at 1:00am Friday night. I'm too tired to A) format B) be funny C) remember to make my $ picks or D) all of the above?

    I would have put $20 on Tampa Bay, Chicago, Cleveland, Buffalo, Nyj, St. Louis, and Baltimore. That would be 0-5 so far.

  6. Wow. -$75 for the weekend. Aaron should post his picks so the rest of us can bet the opposite way and make money.

  7. I lost on both my $20 picks, and won the Pit $40 pick, so I'm even at the week and remain at $820. Although, really, I should get some kind of penalty for picking the Ravens and watching them get absolutely obliterated.

    This was the most enjoyable Sunday of football watching in a while, because the Chargers were on bye and nothing was stressing me out in the NFL.

  8. Stupid back door cover. It's games like these that remind me why I don't gamble with real money in real life. I drop from $960 to $910.

    I was golfing Sunday morning and the afternoon only had two games. It was probably the most boring time to watch the NFL Red Zone channel.

    Weeks like this, where I go 3-10 ATS tell me it's also possible to go 10-3 some time in the future.

  9. Oof. Was at $960. Lost $75. Down to $885.

    FYI - I will conveniently make an arithmetic mistake one of these weeks.