Ok, this week is going to be fast. And my overarching theme is to not overreact to Week 1.
Oakland (+3) over BUFFALO: It's the Bills. You're going to take the Bills and give points? The Raiders showed some toughness last year and last week. If the Bills win by 30 point this week, then maybe I'll take them as the favorite next week. Darren McFadden is the only non-QB to get 10 fantasy points.
Kansas City (+8) over DETROIT: The Chiefs won the AFC West last year. The Lions went 0-16 a few years ago. Let's not start sucking each other's popsicles yet. Calvin Johnson gets two TDs...again.
Baltimore (-6) over TENNESSEE: Man, Baltimore looked really good last week. But if I've learned one thing from Football Outsiders (and then again from Bill Barnwell) it's that fumble recoveries are very random. Interceptions are not. So, the Ravens looked better than they are and the Steelers looked worse because the Ravens recovered every fumble. Still, they looked damn good. I'd even considering switching them with the Steelers in my season preview, BUT we're not overreacting to Week 1 so I am just going to take them to beat the Titans. Ray Rice has the best day among all fantasy running backs.
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) over Cleveland: Let's see something from the Browns and the Bengals before we determine what really happened last week. And same for Kerry Collins. Kerry Collins throws more touchdowns than Colt McCoy.
Tampa Bay (+3) over MINNESOTA: Tampa Bay did not look that bad and Minnesota looked way too dependent on Adrian Peterson. Good for fantasy, not good for the Vikings winning games. Neither quarterback gets over 200 yards passing.
Chicago (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: At the very least, this game should be much closer than 7 points. The Bears may not be as good as they showed hosting the Falcons and the Saints defense may not be as bad as they showed visiting the defending Super Bowl champs on Opening Night. I'll take the 7 points and re-evaluate next week. Darren Sproles scores a touchdown.
Jacksonville (+9.5) over NYJ: I'm just going to type NYJ and NYG for those two teams from now on. Well maybe not permanently, but at least for the time being. You know who did not have a good fantasy day against the Jacksonville defense? Chris Johnson and the Titan's running game. Who know who is a little extra dependent on the run and actually got a little lucky last week? The NYJ. While the Jets are the better team, the spread is way too big. Maurice Jones-Drew has more fantasy points against the Jets defense than Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson combined.
PITTSBURGH (-14.5) over Seattle: The Steelers lost 34-7 last week. They are favored by 14.5. Actually that feels about right because the Seahawks are just that bad.
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Arizona: Arizona's defense made Cam Newton look really good and I think they do the same favor for Rex Grossman.
Green Bay (-10) over CAROLINA: I say Cam Newton throws for 200 yards less than he did last week. Green Bay has four different guys score touchdowns.
Dallas (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Cowboys actually looked pretty good against a good Jets team. Despite Tony Romo's idiocy, I am going to put Dallas in the lead of the group vying for the NFC wild card. Felix Jones, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant all score more fantasy points than Alex Smith.
Cincinnati (+4) over DENVER: Nothing I saw from the Broncos gives me any confidence to pick them. And nothing I saw from the Bengals last week makes me think they will be horrible. But we're not overreacting. I think both of these teams are bad and I'm taking the points.
Houston (-3) over MIAMI: I don't think either of these teams are that bad. But I think Houston looked a little more ready to take care of business than the Dolphins who had more of a "Let's give it our best shot and see what happens" feel to them.
San Diego (+7) over NEW ENGLAND: I'm not a homer. Both have great offenses and Philip Rivers is going to throw for a ton against the Pats. And the Chargers defense is probably better than the Pat's defense. I'm not a homer. Well, I'm trying to be objective at least. Seven points is too big a spread. Yeah, I can't convince myself I'm objective either.
Philadelphia (-2.5) over ATLANTA: It just feels more fun to pick the Eagles here. No other reason in particular.
St. Louis (+6) over NYG: Both these teams are 0-1. And some supposed playoff contender is going to be 0-2. Of course the Rams are only in that discussion because of their division, which they could still win even starting 0-2. The only other game with two 0-1 pre-season playoff contenders is Tampa Bay @ Minnesota. I think the Giants are the better, but injured team. The Rams take this seriously and keep it close.
$10 on Carolina, Cinci, and the Rams.
ReplyDeleteI enjoy your quick notes sometimes more than the longer posts. Quick predictions are short and sweet!
$10 on Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Dallas
ReplyDeleteI'm now at $970.
ReplyDeletegoing the wrong way there
ReplyDeleteDammit Aaron I totally forgot to come back and place my bets on Saturday... in any case nice call on Megatron getting a pair of TDs again, and on the Bengals cover in an ugly game where neither team is good.
ReplyDeleteCan we start sucking each other's popsicles now when it comes to the Lions? Their offense is legitimately talented, and I also think their defense is decent. When they get a lead, they can bring some heat.
Two basic rules I've learned at this point in the season: bet against Seattle and bet against Kansas City every single week until proven otherwise. I feel totally safe picking against each of them in almost every scenario.
New England is swinging a little bit up the other way where I want to pick with them almost every week. Their offense is showing shades of that world-destroying machine from several years ago.
Up to $990 for me.
ReplyDelete(I really need to do a better job at tracking this...)