FIWK the NFL: The PLAYOFFS!!!

Saints vs. Seahawks image search is surprisingly chock full of awesomey goodness. Like the two images above. And this one. And this one. And this one. And this one. Well maybe not those last two, because one of those looks like its something we can do at home and the other shows people drinking. The moral of the story is to not let yourself get distracted. Don't simply look at the Seahawk's 7-9 record and the fact that they are the first ever division champ to have a losing record. Don't get distracted by the fact that the Saints are the defending champs and they already defeated the Seahawks 34-19, with Drew Brees throwing for 382 yards and 4 touchdowns. The spread for this game is 10.5 points, so while it is very easy to pick the Saints to win and move on, we need to make sure that we analyze this game just as well as the other three.

New Orleans (-10.5) @ Seattle: So, among the twelve playoff teams, do you know who threw the most interceptions per pass attempt? Well, it was Jay Cutler and the Bears of course. I've been talking about Cutler's interceptions since the beginning of the season. Back when I had no format and my thoughts were more run-on than my sentences and Scott complained. You know who are second and third? The Saints and the Seahawks. While a 7-9 team throwing a lot of interceptions isn't surprising, seeing Drew Brees, the Super Bowl MVP who completed 70% of his passes last year and 68% this year, among the league leaders in interceptions is a little surprising. And the Saints defense, which finished third in the league in interceptions last year, is dead last in interceptions this year. Not just among the twelve playoff teams, among the entire NFL. So will it be the quarterbacks who like to throw interceptions, or the defenses that don't like to catch them? I would take any other playoff team over the Saints, but the Seahawks are just so much worse in every facet of the game. Football Outsiders says they are bottom three in both offense and defense, while the Saints defense is actually better than their offense. If the Seahawks were even average in efficiency or interceptions on either side of the ball, I would be willing to take them (and the ten points), but since they seem pretty bad across the board, I'll take the Saints to cover.
Not so bold prediction: Someone throws an interception.
Bold prediction: Drew Brees throws more interceptions than the Seahawk's quarterback and the Saints still cover 10.5 points. Yes, I am aware this violates and I am going to be really pissed if I Brees does in fact throw more interceptions and the Saints win by 7. You know what...I need to look into this a little more.
After some postliminary (Judges? Nope, not a word.) analysis, I looked at the box score for the Saints 34-19 victory over the Seahawks and my observations include: They were in New Orleans, not Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck was the quarterback for Seattle and threw 44 times (completing 32) for 366 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. Drew Brees threw 43 times (completing 29) for 382 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. So how did Brees throw two more interceptions than Hasselbeck and the Saints still won by 15? Marshawn Lynch fumbled twice and the Saints recovered both fumbles. And remember, recovering a fumble tends to be random...can't rely on that. After looking at records against the spread, yards per play and results of their past games, I've come to a conclusion. When the Seahawks play a good team, they lose and they lose big. Of their last 10 games, their losses have been by an average of 37-15. Their wins came against Arizona, Carolina and St. Louis. So I am not going to change my pick, but I am going to change my Bold Prediction.
Bold Prediction: The Saints score 40 or more.

New York @ Indianapolis (-2.5): Since one New York team missed the playoffs, I am not going to use the team name. And that makes me happier than it really should. At 2.5 points you're really just trying to pick who will win. In last year's AFC Championship game* the Colts trailed 17-6 at halftime, then came back to win 30-17. Remember my policy that when a great offense meets a great defense, you look the other way. In their previous matchup, the Colts defense held the Jets offense scoreless in the second half. That was just as, if not more, important to the Colts victory than Peyton Manning's performance. This year the Jets defense is not quite as good, but still the strength of the team. And as long as Peyton Manning is playing, the Colts offense will be better than their defense. But after taking a look at interceptions (both teams are pretty close to each other; among playoff teams the Jets and Colts throw the 4th and 5th most interceptions per attempt and their defenses are the 4th and 2nd worst at catching interceptions) we are going to try and predict how the Jets offense will do against the Colts defense. The Jets have cut down their interceptions pretty well and the Colts defense is worse at intercepting the ball than last year. Football Outsiders says the Colts defense is worse than last year and the Jets offense is better than last year. So I guess I'm taking the Jets +2.5...or +3. I always take the final line that Yahoo's Pick 'em puts up and I'm really hoping it gets to +3. But either way, I will take the Jets.
Not so bold prediction: Peyton Manning throws a touchdown.
Bold prediction: Peyton Manning throws for over 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. And LaDainian Tomlinson scores a touchdown.

Baltimore (-3) @ Kansas City: Ray Rice! Jamaal Charles! Joe Flacco! Matt Cassel! Dwayne Bowe! Anquan Boldin! Derrick Mason! Todd Heap! Willis McGahee! Thomas Jones! It's the Big-Fantasy-Football-Names-But-Unkown-To-The-Regular-Public Bowl! It's the NFL playoffs on CBS!! ...or NBC!! ...checking...CBS!! Anybody who plays fantasy football can give you a thought on every one of those names. But anyone who doesn't play fantasy football would fail a test if forced them to determine if it was a real NFL player or someone from the Madden name generator. Ray Rice (great total rushing and receiving yards), Jamaal Charles (super high yards per carry, but still not getting enough carries), Travis Bonner (Madden rookie), Joe Flacco (can he make the leap and take advantage of the tools around him?), Matt Cassel (one good year in the Patriots system gets him a huge contract...but he might be living up to it), Dwayne Bowe (sucked for five weeks, then led the league in receiving touchdowns), Rocky Thompson (Madden rookie), Anquan Boldin (possibly the biggest name, got out from under Larry Fitzgerald's shadow in Arizona, but isn't good enough to be a #1 WR...but it probably worked out better to get away from the Cardinals quarterbacks), Derrick Mason (old, but just as effective as Boldin), Todd Heap (talented, great fantasy tight end a few [several] years ago, but an injury risk at best now), Willis McGahee (vulture), Thomas Jones (stop getting in the way of younger, more talented running backs). Ok I'm done. Both offenses do a pretty decent job not throwing interceptions. Mostly because they are in the bottom quarter of the league in pass attempts, but even on a per attempt basis their quarterbacks do not give the ball away. Their defenses are also middle of the pack in interceptions, finishing 7th and 8th among playoff teams in intercepting the ball. Kansas City has the slightest edge in yards per play. Football Outsiders says Baltimore's the better team on both offense and defense. When you look at the Chiefs schedule, it looks very easy. WAY too easy. Of the twelve other teams to get double digit wins, the Chiefs played one. And lost to the Colts 19-9. The Chiefs only played two playoff teams. They lost to the Colts and beat the 7-9 Seahawks...and no one really wants to count them as a playoff team. The next best team they played was the Chargers, who they beat 21-14 in week 1 behind a punt return touchdown and 68 passing yards my Matt Cassel. Then the Chiefs lost to the Chargers 31-0...but how much of that was Brodie Croyle at quarterback? As for the Ravens, they have played a pretty tough schedule. They went 3-3 against playoff teams and beat the 10-6 Bucs by a touchdown. I really wanted to take the Chiefs and the points. I liked the idea of taking a decent team at home plus points, but everything I look at is either indecisive or indicates the Ravens are the distinctly superior team. So even though they are on the road, and I am now taking three roads teams, I'm taking the Ravens to cover.
Not so bold prediction: Ray Rice or Jamaal Charles gets at least ten carries.
Bold prediction: I wanted to say something about Ray Rice or Jamaal Charles scoring a touchdown or having a high average something. Or Dwayne Bowe catching something. But I am predicting this game to finish 17-14 and with four touchdowns its too hard to predict who will actually score. Thomas Jones or Willis McGahee could be the ones to punch it in from close. Anquan Boldin is just as likely to catch a touchdown as Dwayne Bowe or Derrick Mason or Todd Heap or Tony Moeaki. Or the quarterbacks can run it in instead of throwing it. And both teams do a good job not turning it over, so I don't think there is a defensive or special teams touchdown. You know what? I'm going to say that no one has a good offensive day. No one gets 100 yards rushing or receiving. No non-QB scores 15 fantasy points. No one scores 20 fantasy points.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-2.5): So it's the best balance of offense and defense (have I said that before? I feel like I have...) vs. the Philadelphia Michael Vick's. Did you know Michael Vick used to play for the Falcons then he wasn't in the NFL for a couple years, and now he's on the Eagles? Did you know Michael Vick is the greatest player ever except for his off field issues, which make him the worst player ever? He used to be very inaccurate, but now he's average. Both offenses in this game are average in not throwing interceptions and both defenses are among the league leaders. In fact, these two teams are closer than any other combination of teams in terms of throwing and catching interceptions, so that measurement is useless. (Do I use "in fact" and "so" too often? Judges?) Next, I'll take a look at Football Outsiders and see that the Packers are 3rd and the Eagles are 5th. Still pretty close. Yards per play? Also pretty close. The more I think about it, the only thing that would actually surprise me would be one team winning by ten or more points. But that happens often enough in the NFL that I don't want to say that either. When I can't decide which team is actually better, I take the points. And the points come with...the Green Bay Packers!! An interesting note about the Packers, they are the only publicly owned NFL team. You can technically buy shares in the Packers and the shareholders vote on an executive committee that hires people to work in the front office and make all the decisions. Except that, as far as I know, no current shareholder is actually willing to sell any shares. They like being part owners of the Packers.
Not so bold prediction: Michael Vick runs for more yards than Aaron Rodgers.
Bold prediction: Aaron Rodgers scores more fantasy points than Michael Vick.

I don't know if you've noticed, but I picked every road team. You know what makes me feel good about that? In every instance, I ended up picking the team with the better record. Or the team with the same record plus the points. Also, my goal isn't to go 4-0, but to go 3-1 and I'll settle for 2-2. (That's kind of bullshit...of course I want to go 4-0.)

Random note: Something kind of scary I noticed about the Patriots. Not only does Football Outsiders have them as one of their best teams ever (especially in their Weighted DVOA, which places more value on recent games), but the Patriots were the best team in the NFL in not throwing interceptions AND their defense led the league in catching interceptions. Simmons is going to be unbearable.