This week in sports: The Chargers are favored by 7?

The Chargers lost 21-14 to the Kansas City Chiefs last week. The Jaguars beat the Broncos. I am a huge Chargers homer. Bill Simmons correctly pointed out what I texted Royce on Sunday; that the deluge at Arrowhead Stadium significantly increased the randomness and led to a fluke upset. Jacksonville features two UCLA alumni in Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis. This week the Chargers opened as 8 point favorites and it was bet down to 7.5 then 7. (Another interesting line move: Philly opened as a 3 point favorite over Detroit and is now favored by 6.) I haven't picked against the Chargers in years. What does all this mean?

I think 7 points is too high. Over the last several years, I have been consistently picking NFL games more accurately than my friends. (I have evidence in a couple pick 'em groups where you pick every game, but no evidence to the contrary here on FIWK.) Last week I went 7-6-3 (I have never seen 3 pushes in one NFL week) and felt weird about all my picks. This week I'm picking the Chargers to win straight up, but not to cover.

Other quick thoughts: How many games does Derek Anderson start? What else can the Cardinals do? Matt Ryan better get it together. I like Roddy White and how he leads the NFL in targets...just like last year. Baltimore is good, Cincinnati is less good. Even with KC's flukiness, why are the Browns favored? I hate the Cowboys-Bears line. I pay a lot of attention to QB play and interceptions and Jay Cutler throws a lot of interceptions...so I take the Cowboys, right? But they looked bad and their O-line looked really bad...and they're giving 7.5 points (they opened as 9 point favorites). I hope Ndamokung Suh breaks Michael Vick's leg. Do I start Donald Driver in fantasy over Legedu Naanee or Tim Hightower? The Bills are really bad. The Titans-Steelers game could be all over the place. Chris Johnson runs for 200? Sure. He runs for 43? Why not? Vince Young runs for 100 and throws for 150? Troy Polamalu trips on his own hair? His hair makes an interception? His hair gets flagged for twelve men on the field? Brett Favre is really old and I want him to retire...and payback a second round pick for screwing over the Jets. I want Carolina to use Jonathan Stewart; I have him on several fantasy teams and I have DeAngelo Williams in none. I don't like Pete Carroll...but I think I like division rival Josh McDaniels even less...I feel very conflicted about Pete Carroll. I take back anything positive I said about the Raiders...shame on me for that. The Rams suck less than the Raiders. New England is good, the Jets miss the playoffs. And finally, the Saints vs. the 49ers. The 49ers had that letdown in week 1 and are now playing at home on Monday night in front of a national audience. But they looked bad and the Saints looked OK and the Saints have had 10 days to prepare (seriously, they go from the early Thursday game to Monday night the next week? What kind of scheduling is that?). Can the 49ers recover from down 0-2? Do the 49ers want this game so much more than the Saints? Crazy things happen on Monday Night Football...