FIWK the NFL: Playoffs Week 1

This picture is honor of Eric Weddle being named to the All-Pro team. Which is about the only good thing going for the Chargers right now. If you want to know if any 49ers made the All-Pro team, you'll have to ask Scott or Mik. I'm already thinking about next year and fantasy football for next year. I won our keeper league, but we'll have to see how I do without Adrian Peterson next year. I guess I'll just have to console myself with Ray Rice in the 3rd round, Matthew Stafford in the 5th round and Vincent Jackson in the 8th round. I think I'll be ok. As for this weekend, the only good thing I can think of for Royce and myself is that we can make completely objective thoughts and analysis. Before I get to the actual games, a little reminder about how I do things around here. First, I take the team's points scored and points allowed to calculate a Pythagorean winning % that is more accurate than a team's actual winning percentage. Then taking the two winning percentages, I determine how often the favorite is likely to win. Yeah, you learned all of this from Bill Barnwell a couple months ago. Then, using data from Spreadapedia, I determine how often a favorite with a given spread has won historically. Additionally, for the playoffs I take a look at interceptions. It is easy to say that the team that turns the ball over the least is probably going to win. And fumble recoveries tend to be very random. But interceptions are not. So I look how many pass attempts and offense and defense should expect to see before an interception is thrown. I don't have a specific algorithm, but there are only four data points and the sample size is a little small, so I prefer to eyeball this one. Then I check Football Outsiders just because I like their DVOA efficiency stat. And then I just make up the rest. I'll walk you through it, but it's probably easier with an example. That way I don't have to be explaining this for every game, every week.

Music Tuesdays - Jazz at the Bookstore by Ron Sexsmith

FIWK the NFL: Week 17

The sadness before the playoffs. I really go nothing on the Chargers...um...I hope AJ Smith doesn't get fired? As for the rest of the NFL, the Packers are locked into the first seed in the NFC and the Texans are locked into the third seed in the AFC. Every other seed is up for grabs. The Saints move from 3 to 2 and get a first round bye with a win and a 49ers loss, so both those teams will be trying. The winner of the Cowboys-Giants game gets the 4 seed and the loser is out of the playoffs, so they will both be trying. Atlanta can leapfrog Detroit from the 6 to the 5 seed with a win and a Lions loss, and both teams would much rather face the NFC East champ than Drew Brees and the Saints, so they will both probably be trying. In the AFC, A Patriots loss combined with a Ravens loss and Steelers win means the Steelers get the 1 seed, the Patriots get the 2 seed and the Ravens get the 5 seed. A Patriots win locks up the 1 seed, then the Ravens hold the tiebreaker for the AFC north and the 2 seed over the Steelers, meaning the Steelers would need to win and for the Ravens to lose to get a first round bye...so the Ravens, Steelers and Patriots will all probably trying. Houston gets the 3 seed. The Broncos get the 4 seed with a win or a Raiders loss. The Raiders need to win and a Broncos loss to win the AFC West. The Bengals get the last playoff spot with a win, but a loss opens the door to the Jets, Titans and Raiders for a wild card spot. There is no way the Broncos can lose the AFC West and still get a playoff spot. So that means the Broncos, Raiders, Jets, Titans and Bengals will all be trying. By my count half the teams in the league still have something to play for on the last day. That's actually pretty entertaining. So did I take any of this into consideration when making my picks? Of course not. The spreads already take this into account and I just pick the games according to the line that is put in front of me.

Music Tuesdays - 123 Stop by The Postelles

Classic British indie rock sound to this song. Maybe it's the accent, but it reminds me strongly of The Kooks. Big fan.

FIWK the NFL: Week 16

So apparently I forgot to make my picks last week. Just plum forgot. I was on vacation (who takes a vacation two weeks before Christmas?) and thought I would have time on Thursday, but alas, family, friends, games and drinks got in the way. Oh well. I think I would have done horribly anyways. But you know what happened since the last time we met? The Broncos lost and the Chargers won three in a row, including a beat down of the Ravens. It may be too little too late, but if the Broncos lose two and the Chargers win two, the Chargers win the division at 9-7. Any other situation, the Broncos have the fourth tiebreaker of record against common opponents (or the Raiders or Chiefs win the division). And also, all of a sudden, the Chargers have wild card hopes. They are still behind the Jets and Bengals, but other than head to head with the Jets, the Chargers hold most tie breakers for multiple teams tied for the last wild card spot. So this week Scott and Mik are cheering for the 49ers and the Falcons to beat the Saints, while Royce and I are cheering for the Chargers, Bills, Cardinals, Jaguars, Giants and the Chiefs. But the Chiefs losing wouldn't be particularly harmful. Isn't projecting playoff scenarios fun?