Music Tuesdays - Miracle Mile by Cold War Kids

I've been waiting all weekend to post this song, really enjoying it at the moment.

Music Tuesdays - Line of Fire by Junip

FIWK NFL 2012 (-13) Conference Championships

I had actually gotten used to seeing the trophy on the left, then all of a sudden there are new conference championship trophies, which you can see on the right.  I started looking for other things to talk about, because as soon as I saw the lines, I knew what my picks were going to be.  I knew the Patriots were giving too many points and that I would be taking the home underdog in the NFC.  I mean, I went through the analysis anyways, but I was only surprised by one slight detail that I will reveal later.  As for the two games we are going to watch this weekend, if we get even half the excitement we got last weekend, we are going to have a lot of fun.  I mean, just look at the quarter by quarter scores of the Ravens-Broncos game.  I mean, it was an incredibly exciting game BEFORE Jacoby Jones caught a 70 yard pass to tie the game.  Just check out the changes in the win probability throughout the game.  The Green Bay-San Francisco game was tied halfway through the 3rd quarter before Colin Kaepernick put on a show for the ages.  I had plans Sunday morning and left my house when the Falcons led at halftime 20-0.  It was pretty boring until a schizophrenic last minute.  I happened to check my phone as the Seahawks scored a touchdown to take a 28-27 lead.  About 15 minutes later I meet my family at a cousins first birthday party and see Matt Ryan being interviewed.  Initially I was confused why they were giving the losing quarterback so much air time.  I made sure to watch the replay of that game on the NFL Network.  Maybe now coaches will stop trying to ice the kicker.  I was also especially happy that my Seattle +2.5 still covered.  That's just part of the craziness.  With a 2.5 point spread, the favorite won outright, but didn't cover.

Music Tuesdays - Little Numbers by BOY

This song has been getting a lot of play on KCRW lately - and I absolutely love it.  My favorite song in a while.  The band is called BOY but is apparently composed of girls.  Kind of like a reverse Barenaked Ladies situation.

NFL 2012 Playoffs Week 2: Life is good

This morning the OB/GYN told us our baby fetus is perfectly healthy.  Tonight I'm going to go see a couple movies with friends on a Friday night.  Tomorrow I'm going to watch playoff football, then go to another friend's house for a nice dinner.  On Sunday, I'll watch more playoff football and go to a birthday party for one of Violet's cousins and it will be a lot of fun.  Even all the 49ers fans around me are happy and excited going into the weekend.  You know what this means?  It's really hard to write with angst and disgrunt when you have such a positive outlook on life.  Even my $-130 week last week can't get me down.  Wait, maybe it can a little.  I can start to feel the emotion boiling up inside me.  I can start to envision losing to Scott and MP, and worst of all, giving up my $50 lead over Royce.  That will really frustrate me.  I put in so many hours and devise a pretty sound process and these schmucks come in and "go with their gut" and emerge victorious.  You know what really irks me?  The fact that I really, really do think the Patriots and Broncos will meet in the AFC Championship, but 9.5 is just too many damn points.  ARRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!

Music Tuesdays - Heavy Feet by Local Natives

Really, really enjoying this song by Local Natives.  They will be performing on KCRW this week I believe.

Bonus Weekend Music - Lonesome Dreams by Lord Huron

I have been thoroughly enjoying this album, also called Lonesome Dreams, by band Lord Huron.  Many songs on there that I really dig.

NFL 2012 Playoffs Week 1: Don't bet against...

Don't bet against Chuckstrong.  Don't bet against Adrian Peterson.  Don't bet against Aaron Rodgers.  Don't bet against JJ Watt.  Don't bet against a retiring Ray Lewis. Don't bet on a rookie quarterback. Don't bet against AJ Green in garbage time.  You're going to have to violate some of these to make your picks?  You know why that doesn't bother me, because I really don't care.  I take a look at team Pythagorean winning percentage (man, Seattle and New England look really good) and then for the playoffs, I add in the offensive and defensive interception rates (New England looks even better).  Why don't I look at interception rates for every game?  Because I don't have the time to do it for four times as many games, but more importantly, it is actually more subjective and not just something I can input into a pre-created Excel model.  For example, among teams in the playoffs, New England was the best at not throwing interceptions and the second best at catching interceptions.  That's a pretty scary combination going into the playoffs.  But does that really tell you much about their odds of winning?  Not really.  So I'll take a look and mention it if I think its relevant, but only because I step my game up for the playoffs.  Well, my statistical analysis game steps up.  So far, it doesn't look like my style, humor or overall interestingness steps up.  But back to Chuckstrong.  Leukemia vs. retirement.  What do you think is the bigger motivator?  You know what I think the biggest motivator is?  Talent and game plan.  Also, looking at interceptions might give me a better idea of who I think will win outright, but it doesn't help against the spread.  Well, I guess it does to some degree, if you are subjectively more confident a team will win outright, then you inherently feel more confident that that team will cover.  Those are correlating feelings.  Where am I?  What's going on?