FIWK NFL 2012 (-13) Conference Championships

I had actually gotten used to seeing the trophy on the left, then all of a sudden there are new conference championship trophies, which you can see on the right.  I started looking for other things to talk about, because as soon as I saw the lines, I knew what my picks were going to be.  I knew the Patriots were giving too many points and that I would be taking the home underdog in the NFC.  I mean, I went through the analysis anyways, but I was only surprised by one slight detail that I will reveal later.  As for the two games we are going to watch this weekend, if we get even half the excitement we got last weekend, we are going to have a lot of fun.  I mean, just look at the quarter by quarter scores of the Ravens-Broncos game.  I mean, it was an incredibly exciting game BEFORE Jacoby Jones caught a 70 yard pass to tie the game.  Just check out the changes in the win probability throughout the game.  The Green Bay-San Francisco game was tied halfway through the 3rd quarter before Colin Kaepernick put on a show for the ages.  I had plans Sunday morning and left my house when the Falcons led at halftime 20-0.  It was pretty boring until a schizophrenic last minute.  I happened to check my phone as the Seahawks scored a touchdown to take a 28-27 lead.  About 15 minutes later I meet my family at a cousins first birthday party and see Matt Ryan being interviewed.  Initially I was confused why they were giving the losing quarterback so much air time.  I made sure to watch the replay of that game on the NFL Network.  Maybe now coaches will stop trying to ice the kicker.  I was also especially happy that my Seattle +2.5 still covered.  That's just part of the craziness.  With a 2.5 point spread, the favorite won outright, but didn't cover.

ATLANTA (+4) over San Francisco:  About a month ago, I thought I would be picking the 49ers over any NFC team in the playoffs.  Partly because I figured the 49ers would be hosting the Seahawks if they played each other and partly because the Falcons were underperforming their record by quite a bit.  But as the season ended, the Falcons closed the gap with the 49ers and at home, and I am taking the Falcons plus the points.  As for my little surprise, I think the 49ers win on a neutral field 52% of the time, but in Atlanta, I think the Falcons win 54% of the time.  That's right, I'm picking the Falcons to win outright.  I think I might look up the moneyline for the Falcons... (Looks like I can get the Falcons +175...hmmmm.... time to put my game theory hat on...)

Baltimore (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: My numbers say the Patriots should be favored by 7, so not exactly that much value here.  I really can't think of very much to say here.  New England is really, really good.  Remember how I said they throw the fewest interceptions and catch the second most among playoff teams.  That's a dangerous combination.  I'm starting to feel that even though I'm picking the Ravens, I won't be putting very much $ on them.


  1. $60 on Atlanta +4, $40 to win $70 on the Falcons to win outright, and $20 on Baltimore +9.

  2. Is it a bad sign for my gambling familiarity that, when I saw the title of this post read "FIWK 2012 (-13) Conference Championships", I thought you were favoring FIWK by 13 pts over the conference championships? And that I spent about 40 seconds trying to figure out what that meant, before I realized it was a reference to the year 2013?? I'm concerned. For myself.

    I was going to pick what you picked... BUT - putting my game theory cap on - I am going to pick against you in an effort to beat you. So I am going with:

    $100 on SF -4 ... I think the Atl +4 line represents some value, and absolutely everyone is betting SF, but they were balling last week. But everyone believes in them. But I am going contrary to Aaron. If SF wins I really hope it's not just by a FG, or I will cry.

    $110 on Baltimore +9 ... I do like New England to win the game, but in my typical 'going with my gut' style that you hate, I do not expect them to blow out Baltimore without Gronk. Hernandez should dice up the LBs trying to cover him, but Gronk made that duo an impossible cover and could bust up the seam for those crazy deep catches. So probably Bodymore ('Wire' reference) can keep it within 9 pts, maybe? The extra $10 is to get me back to even with MP.

  3. The extra $10 puts you exactly $100 behind MP.

  4. Well so much for my SF pick to separate myself. They push and you lose your Atl outright bet, though, which is nice.

    What did I start at, $790? I won $110 but will have to look up where I'm at. Come on Harbowl!

  5. You were at $690 because you lost $200 last week, not $100. So now you are at $800.

    I lost $20 to go down to $970.

  6. Any my strategy pays off again! Go me as the winner!

  7. I abhor Scooter so much right now

    Okay so basically I just need to beat MP to keep my pride. Come onnnnnnn Superbowl pick.... we know the line is SF -4 ... reallyyy thinking hard about this one prior to your NFL post.

  8. PS - want to know what the best part is?

    I have no idea where I'm at $$-wise right now.

  9. you should be - even the immortal MP is beating you...