quarter by quarter scores of the Ravens-Broncos game. I mean, it was an incredibly exciting game BEFORE Jacoby Jones caught a 70 yard pass to tie the game. Just check out the changes in the win probability throughout the game. The Green Bay-San Francisco game was tied halfway through the 3rd quarter before Colin Kaepernick put on a show for the ages. I had plans Sunday morning and left my house when the Falcons led at halftime 20-0. It was pretty boring until a schizophrenic last minute. I happened to check my phone as the Seahawks scored a touchdown to take a 28-27 lead. About 15 minutes later I meet my family at a cousins first birthday party and see Matt Ryan being interviewed. Initially I was confused why they were giving the losing quarterback so much air time. I made sure to watch the replay of that game on the NFL Network. Maybe now coaches will stop trying to ice the kicker. I was also especially happy that my Seattle +2.5 still covered. That's just part of the craziness. With a 2.5 point spread, the favorite won outright, but didn't cover.
ATLANTA (+4) over San Francisco: About a month ago, I thought I would be picking the 49ers over any NFC team in the playoffs. Partly because I figured the 49ers would be hosting the Seahawks if they played each other and partly because the Falcons were underperforming their record by quite a bit. But as the season ended, the Falcons closed the gap with the 49ers and at home, and I am taking the Falcons plus the points. As for my little surprise, I think the 49ers win on a neutral field 52% of the time, but in Atlanta, I think the Falcons win 54% of the time. That's right, I'm picking the Falcons to win outright. I think I might look up the moneyline for the Falcons... (Looks like I can get the Falcons +175...hmmmm.... time to put my game theory hat on...)
Baltimore (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: My numbers say the Patriots should be favored by 7, so not exactly that much value here. I really can't think of very much to say here. New England is really, really good. Remember how I said they throw the fewest interceptions and catch the second most among playoff teams. That's a dangerous combination. I'm starting to feel that even though I'm picking the Ravens, I won't be putting very much $ on them.