NFL 2012 Week 9: Informative, if not entertaining

I'm going to wait until after this week when everyone has played 8 games before I update my playoff predictions.  Philip Rivers went 18 for 20 with two touchdowns and a stupid interception.  In fact, assuming someone in the stands caught his throw away, not a single pass touched the ground.  The Chargers have 4 wins, half against the Chiefs.  The Chargers have a +28 point differential overall, and a +35 against the Chiefs.  I'm glad the Chargers got to play them twice, but we're going to need to win against 5 or 6 other teams to make the playoffs.  Losing to the Browns really, really hurt.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Kansas City: The Chiefs will definitely end up with the first overall pick if they keep averaging 3 turnovers a game.  But if they improve even slightly in this area, that could push them down to the 2nd or 3rd pick.
Not So Bold Prediction: The Chiefs commit a turnover.
Bold Prediction: Seyi Ajirotutu makes an incredible 28 yard diving catch on 3rd down to extend the opening drive...then doesn't touch the ball again.

Denver (-3.5) over CINCINNATI: I really, really want the Broncos to lose, but I don't think they will.  The spread should be 4.5.
Not So Bold Prediction: Peyton Manning throws a touchdown pass.
Bold Prediction: AJ Green catches a touchdown pass.

CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Baltimore: The line should be 3.  Not much value.  The Ravens defense has too many injuries and there's something wrong with the offense.  But this is still the Browns...
Not So Bold Prediction: Ray Rice catches a pass.
Bold Prediction: Trent Richardson outscores Ray Rice.

Arizona (+11) over GREEN BAY: Arizona followed four straight wins with four straight losses and should be 3.5-4.5.  The Packers are 4.9-3.1.  In Green Bay, the Packers should win by a touchdown, not 11.  The Cardinals actually have a 27% chance of winning...about the same as Romney's chance of beating Obama, according to Nate Silver.
Not So Bold Prediction: Aaron Rodgers throws a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: The fantasy points are spread around the RBs and WRs.  No one stands out.

Chicago (-3.5) over TENNESSEE: The Bears are good, the Titan are not.  The Bears have an 86% chance of winning and should win by double digits.
Not So Bold Prediction: Is it a Bold or Not So Bold Prediction that the Bears defense does not score a touchdown?
Bold Prediction: Brandon Marshall scores a touchdown.

Miami (-2) over INDIANAPOLIS: The Dolphins are 4-3 and are the 4th best team in the AFC.  They get the wild card spot even with a loss...but I'm waiting until next week to update my playoff predictions.  The Colts are out if they don't win this week.  Ok, now I'm done.  I swear.
Not So Bold Prediction: Andrew Luck outrushes the Dolphins starting QB.
Bold Prediction: Reggie Wayne scores a touchdown.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Carolina: The Washington RGIII's should beat the Carolina Cam Newton's 68% of the time.  I imagine we will see a few QB runs in this game.  You know, if Ron Rivera knows what's good for him.
Not So Bold Prediction: I really wanted to make a joke about a running QB...but I was bored by it.
Bold Prediction: Neither of these running QB's run in a touchdown.

Detroit (-4) over JACKSONVILLE: The Jaguars are currently the worst team in the NFL.  'Nuff said.
Not So Bold Prediction: I can't actually predict anyone scores in this game.  I could end 9-6 for all I know.  I guess Matthew Stafford leads the game in pass attempts...I like that one.
Bold Prediction: Stafford throws 3 touchdowns.

HOUSTON (-10) over Buffalo:  Houston is really really good.  The best run offense against the worst run defense.  Arian Foster could actually set the single game rushing record.  So of course, he'll get 120 yards and a touchdown while his backup also gets 100 yards and a touchdown, allowing his fantasy owner's opponents to breathe a sigh of relief.
Not So Bold Prediction: Arian Foster gets 100 yards.
Bold Prediction: Arian Foster sets the single game rushing record.

Tampa Bay (+1.5) over OAKLAND: The Raiders only have a 30% chance of winning.  I don't get how they are favored.
Not So Bold Prediction: Vincent Jackson scores 4 or 18.
Bold Prediction: e/.;lkiuy7t54 (that's Jessica's toe's contribution). Tampa Bay wins by a touchdown.

Minnesota (+5) over SEATTLE: This could be a well-fought close game, or a very ugly close game.  I would give the Vikings a slight edge on a neutral field, but home field advantage gives the Seahawks a 53% chance of winning.  Close game one way or the other.
Not So Bold Prediction: Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson tote the rock a lot.
Bold Prediction: I never use the phrase 'tote the rock' again.

NYG (-3.5) over Pittsburgh: The Giants are the better team and at home and the Steelers couldn't get a hotel Saturday because the now-canceled NY marathon didn't notify people early enough for them to cancel their travel plans.  They waited until everyone was in town and THEN canceled the marathon.  As for the Steelers, their an above average team playing a good team and it just isn't going to work out.
Not So Bold Prediction: One of these QBs luckily breaks a tackle in the pocket, slowly rambles out of the pocket then completes a pass.
Bold Prediction: That pass converts a third down and the announcers gush about how both of these quarterbacks are better than Philip Rivers because their defenses were strong enough to win a couple Super Bowls.

ATLANTA (-4) over Dallas:The Falcons aren't 7-0 good, but they are good.  The Cowboys are exactly who they are.  The Falcons should win by 10.  I'm actually interested to see if the Cowboys two corners (first round draft picks Morris Claiborne and free agent Brandon Carr) can slow down Roddy White and Julio Jones.
Not So Bold Prediction: Julio Jones or Roddy White catches a touchdown.
Bold Prediction: Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez all score touchdowns.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Philadelphia: The 2-5 Saints are appropriately favored over the 3-4 Eagles.  In fact, the line should be 4.  Not much, but that's why I'm taking Drew Brees.
Not So Bold Prediction: Michael Vick has a great game against a bad Saints pass defense and a horrible game because he's Michael Vick Turnover Machine.  That's right, he will have a great game and a horrible game at the same time.
Bold Prediction: Drew Brees outscores Michael Vick by 10.


  1. $40 on Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.

    $20 Minnesota, Arizona, Miami, Detroit, Denver, NY Giants, New Orleans.

  2. I did not make my picks in time. I won $50 the prior week and I'm at $890 for the season.

    Where are you two at?

    Are any of beating the erstwhile MP, who sits even at $1,000 having made no attempt to pick anything?

  3. 3-0 on $40 picks, 3-4 on $20 picks. Up $100 to $1,030.