So I started planning out my go-to bracket picking strategies. Things like, picking your Final Four first, picking at least one and probably two 1 seeds to make it and not picking any team lower than a 4 seed. When I like the teams, I really try to pick a 1,1,2,(3 or 4), with the 1 seeds on the same side of the bracket. As I was mentally planning what to write, it all sounded really familiar. That's because I laid out most of my ground rules last year. So instead of rehashing it all, just go back and read what I wrote last year. Come back next week and I'll give some thoughts for the actual teams. And my analysis this year will be much better because I won't be biased by the presence of UCLA. :(
This worked out about as well as I could hope for. A couple weeks ago I was planning on picking Kentucky, Ohio St. Michigan St. and Kansas as my Final Four, mostly based on...that's right...the Pythagorean winning percentage, conveniently provided by kenpom.com. As it turns out, two of these teams are one seeds on the same side of the bracket and the other two are 2 seeds. I could pick a 1,1,2,2 with a 1 vs. 2 final. I still haven't decided if I'm taking Ohio St. over Wisconsin.
ReplyDeleteThere were ten upsets. 1 nine seed, 2 tens, 2 elevens, 2 twelves, 1 thirteen, 0 fourteens, 2 fifteens. So if you followed kenpom, you wouldn't have had Duke or Missouri in your Final Four and their losses don't hurt you very much. But you would also have Wichita St. in your Sweet 16 and they lost their first game.
ReplyDeleteBut most importantly (for me)? My Final Four of Kentucky, Michigan St., Ohio St., and Kansas is still looking good.
The four games of the Elite Eight are comprised of a 1 vs. 2, 1 vs. 2, 1 vs. 3, and 4 vs. 7. That feels like 75% chalk and 25% total craziness. Not as crazy as two 15's beating 2 seeds on the same day, but a 4 vs. 7 for the right to go to the Final Four? No one in your pool predicted that. The lesson here? If you had gone all chalk, except for my (kenpom's) recommendation that Duke was a very weak 2 seed, then you would be leading your office pool right now.
ReplyDeleteSo the Final Four teams are 1,2,2,4 seeds. And if you picked Kentucky, Ohio St. and Kansas like I told you, you would probably be leading your group right now. The only guy beating me actually went more chalk than I did. 1v3, 1v2, 1v2, and 1v2 in the Elite Eight. I tried to get cute picking 1v3, 2v4, 1v6, and 1v2. As for Louisville? They actually had the best defense in the country, so despite Michigan St.'s lofty Pythagorean winning percentage, Rick Pitino keeps his Sweet 16 record unblemished.
ReplyDeleteThis set up really well for your theory. A 1,2,2,4 Final Four is basically in line with what you predicted. Especially when you feel (like me) that some of those 2 seeds were almost arbitrary relative to the 1 seed. Ohio State was a particularly strong 2 seed.
ReplyDeleteShould be a highly entertaining Final Four.