FIWK the NFL: Week 14


There are two rules the NFL has that I absolutely hate. While I don't like the current confusion surrounding what constitutes a completed catch before the end zone or in the end zone, and I don't like the ability of a judgment call to award a 60 yard penalty, the refs in the NFL are fucking spectacular and do an outmazing job and you should try your darndest to avoid criticizing them. But I hate the NFL awarding a monopoly on the Sunday Ticket to Direct TV and I hate that the NFL blacks out the local team when the game doesn't sell out. Normally, moving from San Diego to the bay area would take care of both of these issues. The Chargers are rarely on TV locally, and since I can't get Sunday Ticket through my cable provider, I need to go to the local BJ's to watch the Chargers on their Sunday Ticker. This kind of works out as a win-win, as I get to enjoy quality craft brews and watch multiple NFL games at once. Also, since I no longer live in San Diego, I never have to fear the dreaded local black out. But this weekend, I will visiting San Diego and the Chargers game will be blacked out and now I'm just as mad at Roger Goodell and the NFL as Royce is at David Stern. So will it be a crappy streaming foreign internet feed or $50-$100 to go to the game?

PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland: Yeah, I know this game happened last night, but I'm being honest here. Pittsburgh was supposed to be favored by 14+, but there aren't really enough games with spreads greater than 14 for me to be confident in any analysis out that far. Although, I just realized that I did my analysis based on the stats as of today, which includes the Steelers 11 point victory over the Browns. So maybe my analysis before the game would have determined the value to be at Cleveland +14, but if they were to play next week, the line should be Pittsburgh -14? Not so bold prediction: Pittsburgh wins. Bold prediction: Antonio Brown has 5 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown.

Houston (+3) over CINCINNATI: Yates hasn't been too bad. And it's not like Matt Schaub was carrying this team before. Like I said last week, it's Arian Foster and the Texans' defense...and the points. Not so bold prediction: The phrase "Is AJ Green the next Andre Johnson?" gets said at least once. Bold prediction: Andre Johnson pulls a third hammy.

DETROIT (Off(0)) over Minnesota: I'm pretty sure both starting quarterbacks are going to be healthy for this one. In fact, I don't quite get why there are so many Off lines this week. After checking, apparently Ponder is a game time decision...but I don't think he's been good enough to warrant an Off line.

New Orleans (-3.5) over TENNESSEE: Even though it's only 3.5 points, this is the right line. Kind of surprising for the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NFC vs. an AFC team that is barely contending for the wild card. What's that? The Titans are 7-5? When the hell did that happen? Oh, when CJ## was rushing for 343 yards in two games? Ok, so now he's on pace for 1,136 yards, which is a pretty decent season. I'll stop insulting him. Now, I'll just console him when he loses to Drew Brees, who is still on pace to break the single season passing yards record.

MIAMI (Off(0)) over Philadelphia: This Off line is kind of a reverse off line. Michael Vick has been injured and he might be back, but we don't know yet. I wonder if the Eagles will be favored if Vick starts. I hope so. Because I will take the Dolphins plus any points. In fact, I'll take the Dolphins all the way up to being a three point favorite. I need to get 3.5 before I take the Eagles with Michael Vick or Vince Young. In fact, I still don't know why this line is Off. Young has produced just as well as Vick. Not so bold prediction: The Eagles starting quarterback runs the ball at least twice. Bold prediction: The Dolphins get more rushing touchdowns from their quarterbacks than the Eagles do.

NYJ (-9) over Kansas City: Just so you know, I'm staying up late to get this done. That's how much respect I have for my readers. Not enough to prepare in advance and post this at a reasonable time, but enough to have it up at least one full day before the games start. The Chiefs are tied with the Chargers at 5-7. But their -105 point differential means they should only be 2.8-9.2. They are way overperforming.

New England (-8) over WASHINGTON: This line is actually perfect. Half a point either way would make me take that team. But, since I have to pick it at -8, do I lean slightly towards the home team (which I give an advantage to, but not as much as Bill Barnwell) or do I lean slightly towards the team with a competent quarterback. I guess when you look at it like that, it's a lot easier to pick Tom Brady over Rex Grossman. Not so bold prediction: Tom Brady throws a touchdown pass. Bold prediction: Roy Helu gets 100 yards.

Atlanta (-2.5) over CAROLINA: I'm already preparing myself not to take Cam Newton in next year's fantasy drafts. I think he is going to go higher than I feel comfortable taking him. I think his passing will come down, but I just can't see him leading the league in rushing TDs. So when you take those away, then how does he compare to Rodgers, Brady, Brees? If he's available in the third round, I'll take him, but I don't think he will still be there. As for Atlanta, Michael Turner goes in the first round, Roddy White in the 2nd and Matt Ryan goes in the 13th. Still good enough to win this game though. Not so bold prediction: Michael Turner or Roddy White gets a touchdown. Bold prediction: Jonathan Stewart has more catches than Roddy White.

JACKSONVILLE (Off(0)) over Tampa Bay: Wow, what happened to Tampa Bay? They went from 4-2 to 4-8 in a hurry. And Jacksonville didn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence Monday night against the Chargers. They were picking people up and throwing them on to the Chargers bandwagon.

BALTIMORE (-16.5) over Indianapolis: If this line was at -20, I'd take the Colts. Just like I did last week. But at 16.5, I take the Ravens. And I will continue to enjoy Ray Rice's fantasy goodness along the way. Not so bold prediction: The Ravens win by more than the 7 points the Patriots won by last week. Bold prediction: The announcers mention the Baltimore Colts only 43 times.

Chicago (+3.5) over DENVER: At 7-5 the Broncos are now tied with the Raiders for first in the AFC West. And their point differential and Pythagorean winning percentage are almost identical. They are both 7-5 teams playing like 5-7 win teams. Last week I told you the Raiders were the only team at 7-4 or better with a negative point differential. The Broncos caught them and now both Denver and Oakland are the only teams with winning records who have allowed more points than they have scored. Not so bold prediction: John Elway is seen on TV, both in the owner's booth during most of the game, then on the sideline in the fourth quarter. Bold prediction: The Broncos are trailing most of the game then get a great defensive or special teams play that allows Tebow to win the game in the last two minutes.

GREEN BAY (-11) over Oakland: Here's betting that the Raiders have a worse point differential after Sunday.

San Francisco (-4) over ARIZONA: Only 4 points? I am genuinely confused by this. I would probably be taking the 49ers with a double digit spread. Now, will Scott put mucho dinero on his team, thereby jinxing them?

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Buffalo: The line is probably too high and the game is blacked out and we need to get five starters back from the IR (literally, at least five opening day starters are out for the year on the IR) and we need a high draft pick... but if the Bears beat the Broncos and the Packers beat the Raiders and the Chargers beat the Bills...we're only a game back... hhmmmmm....

DALLAS (-3.5) over Nyg: I don't necessarily like picking NFC East games. Here are some examples: Washington 28 - NYG 14, NYG 29 - Philadelphia 16, Philadelphia 17 - NYG 10, Philadelphia 34 - Dallas 7. But my numbers say the Cowboys are 6 points better than the Giants, not 3.5.

SEATTLE (Off(0)) over St. Louis: Ugh. Horrible Monday Night Football. HMNF.

9 comments:

  1. $50 on Houston +3, Chicago +3.5, NYJ -9, SF -4. $20 on Dallas -3.5.

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  2. I've got a number of comments for this week's games, but that will have to wait until I'm on a computer. Picks:

    - $50 on Houston
    - $25 on Jacksonville
    - $25 on Packers
    - $50 on Niners
    - $50 on Dallas

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  3. I was at the Chargers-Bills game. Pretty fun game to be at, but it would've been a lot more fun if we were still in the playoff hunt.

    Side note - I don't go to many Chargers games, and it was weird going to one when it was basically 'cold' outside (50s I think?). Especially as it got dark in the afternoon.

    I'd have gone big on Chargers, Packers, Patriots, and Bucs this week, causing me to probably split my picks. Again. I promise to pick this week.

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  4. I did not do as well as I would have hoped (really felt like a solid 5-0):

    - $50 on Houston: Win!
    - $25 on Jacksonville: Win!
    - $25 on Packers: Win!
    - $50 on Niners: Loss..
    - $50 on Dallas: Loss..

    Net-net; I'm even on the week, and remain at $1,061.

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  5. I went 3-2 to be up $80 this week. I'm not up to $1280 for the season.

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  6. And for Thursday of Week 16 I'm putting $50 on Houston -6 analysisfully.

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  7. Now you're just talking crazy.

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  8. interesting analysis. lol.. better get Chiefs Tickets asap.. so not too miss the game!

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