FIWK the NFL: Week 7

I feel like I've lost my picking mojo. Or at least that this season is both really clumped together and very volatile. I can't really get anything going, but I'm not doing poorly. You could say that I was performing average or within one standard deviation of the mean. Which I consider a disappointment for myself. All the way below I have listed every stat I consider when picking games. That's not to say these are my only determining factors, just that if I don't use these stats, I'm probably relying on more subjective analysis. The stats are Pythagorean Win % (which is just another calculation based on point differential), Points For - Points Against = point Differential and divided by the number of Games played = Differential per Game. Then we also have Offensive Interception (thrown) rate, Defensive Interception (caught) rate and Football Outsiders DVOA. And with the Redskins, Raiders, Vikings, Broncos and possibly Rams going with new quarterbacks, I just don't know what to think.

CLEVELAND (-3) over Seattle: This game is actually pretty close and I considered taking the Seahawks and the points, but the Browns are doing a good job not throwing interceptions and the Seahawks are all around bad.

Atlanta (+3.5) over DETROIT: The point differential indicates the Lions, and it's not that close. but the DVOA was a little more convincing. I like the fact that despite being on the road, the Falcons are still playing in a dome and the Lions are currently auditioning running backs. This is another game that I think will be close and I'm much happier taking the Falcons +3.5 than 3 or 2.5. And I still haven't found a game I would put $ on below.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Houston: This is the game that determines the favorite in the AFC South. I'd even be willing to bet that the winner of this game makes the playoffs and the loser doesn't. It's probably too early to make that decision because this may only be the first half of a tiebreaker and the Titans probably have a slightly better chance at getting a wild card spot, while the Texans are probably division champs or bust. Their differentials and interception rates are close, so I am deferring to the big discrepancy in DVOA. Please, please, please let Chris Johnson have a good game that turns his horrible fantasy season around.

Denver (+2) over MIAMI: Tim Tebow is trying to win this game. The Dolphins are trying to get Andrew Luck. And I just realized I haven't been funny at all so far. But I'm not turning it around here.

San Diego (-2) over NYJ: All homer here. If I was to try and make some impartial analysis, I might say something like the winner of this game makes the playoffs and the loser doesn't or that instead of looking at the Chargers offense vs. the Jets defense, we look the other way. How is the Chargers defense going to do against the Jets offense? I say Mark Sanchez is extra sucky, LT is getting the start and proves AJ Smith right, and the post-game handshake takes forever because Rex Ryan is fat and Norv Turner is old.

TAMPA BAY (+1) over Chicago: I hate lines like this. How often does a team favored by one, win outright, but lose ATS? Strangely enough, despite only playing six games, these guys have four common opponents. Chicago beat Atlanta 30-12, Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-13. Tampa Bay lost to Detroit 27-20, Chicago lost to Detroit 24-13. Chicago lost to New Orleans 30-13, Tampa Bay beat New Orleans 26-20. Chicago beat Minnesota 39-10, Tampa Bay beat Minnesota 24-20. So three of those teams have the same result against the Bears and Bucs, with the Bears looking like the better team based on scores. But the Bucs beat the Saints, while the Bear lost handily. Now, this was the Sean Payton-less Saints, but I think these teams are really close and DVOA agrees with me that the Bucs are slightly better. (And they are at home.)

Washington (+2.5) over CAROLINA: The Redskins are better pretty much every way you look at them. While Cam Newton is exciting and could be a great fantasy quarterback for year to come, he's 1-5 and isn't capable of carrying a poor Panthers team to a victory. The Redskins are 3-2 despite Rex Grossman, not because of him. Going from Grossman to Beck is not a downgrade. It may not be an upgrade, but it won't make that big of a difference. In fact, I'm putting $100 on it below. And if I lose this one, it will be in a damn exciting fashion.

OAKLAND (-4.5) over Kansas City: I don't think Carson Palmer does anything in this game. In fact, I really hope he throws a pick six and costs them the game. But he doesn't have to do anything more than hand off to Darren McFadden and let the Raiders defense and the black hole take care of Matt Cassel and the horrible Chiefs. Man, I hate U$C QBs. I hope one or both suffer season ending ACL tears. And I really, really want the Raiders to lose.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) over ARIZONA: Another game I'm putting $100 on. The Steelers are much better than the Cardinals and it isn't even close.

St. Louis (+13) over DALLAS: Green Bay giving 15 against the Rams makes complete sense (especially since they won 24-3 and helped Scott a lot in our little game). But for the Cowboys to be giving that much feels a lot like a popular team premium. The Cowboys (I use "I think" too much and I'm going to try and make a conscious effort to cut back.) win outright, but I don't trust them giving so many points. One interesting caveat is whether Sam Bradford can play through the pain of his high ankle sprain, but even if he doesn't, I'll still take the Rams +13.

Green Bay (-9) over MINNESOTA: Green Bay is looking incredible. But they are still behind Baltimore in both DVOA and point differential. But that really speaks to how good the Ravens are than any slight on Green Bay. I might move the Vikings out of totally sucky territory, but this is still a rookie quarterback making his first start against one of the top two teams in the NFL.

NEW ORLEANS (-14) over Indianapolis: Sean Payton doesn't give up his play-calling duties at half time, Curtis Painter throws a couple picks under constant blitz. Not a $100 call, but maybe a $20 call.

Baltimore (-8) over JACKSONVILLE: Baltimore is really, really good. In fact, I'll take Baltimore Def/ST (+2) over JACKSONVILLE.

Team	W	L	G	PCT	Pyth %	PF	PA	DIFF	Diff/G	Off INT %	Def INT %	DVOA
Baltimore	4	1	5	0.80	0.85	148	71	77	15.40	2.31%	3.21%	27.80%
Green Bay	6	0	6	1.00	0.78	197	114	83	13.83	1.90%	4.56%	25.40%
San Francisco	5	1	6	0.83	0.78	167	97	70	11.67	1.24%	3.29%	27.50%
Detroit	5	1	6	0.83	0.74	178	114	64	10.67	1.68%	3.60%	9.50%
New England	5	1	6	0.83	0.68	185	135	50	8.33	3.38%	3.40%	21.10%
Buffalo	4	2	6	0.67	0.64	188	147	41	6.83	3.45%	5.41%	23.90%
Cincinnati	4	2	6	0.67	0.62	137	111	26	4.33	2.49%	1.05%	12.30%
New Orleans	4	2	6	0.67	0.59	177	151	26	4.33	3.03%	1.29%	10.40%
Pittsburgh	4	2	6	0.67	0.59	119	102	17	2.83	3.05%	0.52%	13.00%
Houston	3	3	6	0.50	0.57	141	124	17	2.83	2.49%	2.96%	5.50%
Washington	3	2	5	0.60	0.58	96	83	13	2.60	5.00%	2.89%	1.60%
Chicago	3	3	6	0.50	0.56	146	132	14	2.33	2.00%	1.69%	-2.40%
NY Jets	3	3	6	0.50	0.56	145	131	14	2.33	2.53%	4.84%	25.20%
San Diego	4	1	5	0.80	0.56	120	109	11	2.20	3.76%	3.79%	-7.50%
Tennessee	3	2	5	0.60	0.56	105	94	11	2.20	2.20%	3.14%	17.00%
Oakland	4	2	6	0.67	0.54	160	150	10	1.67	2.22%	1.91%	13.60%
NY Giants	4	2	6	0.67	0.53	154	147	7	1.17	2.55%	3.26%	18.90%
Philadelphia	2	4	6	0.33	0.50	145	145	0	0.00	5.07%	3.83%	1.80%
Dallas	2	3	5	0.40	0.47	115	121	-6	-1.20	3.94%	3.17%	8.00%
Atlanta	3	3	6	0.50	0.45	135	147	-12	-2.00	2.75%	4.23%	12.00%
Minnesota	1	5	6	0.17	0.40	121	145	-24	-4.00	1.15%	2.58%	-1.50%
Arizona	1	4	5	0.20	0.37	96	121	-25	-5.00	3.93%	2.33%	-29.00%
Carolina	1	5	6	0.17	0.38	133	163	-30	-5.00	3.93%	1.85%	-18.70%
Cleveland	2	3	5	0.40	0.36	91	117	-26	-5.20	1.38%	2.16%	-10.40%
Tampa Bay	4	2	6	0.67	0.36	113	145	-32	-5.33	2.68%	2.42%	0.20%
Seattle	2	3	5	0.40	0.35	94	122	-28	-5.60	2.84%	2.92%	-15.20%
Denver	1	4	5	0.20	0.34	105	140	-35	-7.00	4.24%	1.80%	-8.90%
Indianapolis	0	6	6	0.00	0.26	104	163	-59	-9.83	1.00%	1.55%	-26.90%
Jacksonville	1	5	6	0.17	0.20	72	132	-60	-10.00	3.61%	3.13%	-27.60%
Miami	0	5	5	0.00	0.22	75	128	-53	-10.60	4.07%	1.16%	-26.80%
Kansas City	2	3	5	0.40	0.17	77	150	-73	-14.60	3.55%	3.11%	-22.80%
St. Louis	0	5	5	0.00	0.08	49	137	-88	-17.60	1.00%	2.38%	-36.90%