Football Outsiders regularly does the BEST statistical analysis of the NFL before the NFL season. I have a BS in Applied Mathematics, and I am regularly impressed with the works these guys are capable of. Bill Simmons often features the creator, Aaron Schatz, on his podcasts and ESPN the Magazine used their work in their recent NFL Preview Issue.
This year, every metric Football Outsiders uses indicates the Chargers will have the best team in the NFL, having one of the best offenses and one of the best defenses and should have the best record in the NFL. Usually, the team with the best record (through a combination of being really good and having home field advantage) are the favorites to win the Super Bowl. However, Football Outsiders does not like to follow their own work when trying to predict the playoffs and instead become significantly more subjective. This year, Aaron Schatz cites Norv Turner's failings as head coach as why they are picking the Patriots to win the Super Bowl instead of San Diego. Does a difference in head coach make that much of a difference in the outcome of a football game?
