College Football: Pac-12 Dominance?

The 2013-2014 college football season is coming to a close; that means it's bowl season. The biggest story, according to the mainstream media, is that this is the final year of the much-debated BCS (aka Bowl Championship Series). However, I'm here to bring to your attention to something new I just uncovered: the Pac-12 is favored in each of it's 9 bowl games. This, even though we only have 7 bowl-commitments.

So, to recap: 75% of the conference is in a bowl game (28% above our commitment rate), and each of those teams is favored against it's opponent. Yes, I think that counts as dominance.

FIWK the NFL: Thursday Quick Pick Week 11

Indianapolis at TENNESSEE -3.0
It looks like Jake Locker is out for the season, so I have no idea why Tennessee is only getting 3.  Maybe it's because the Colts got their doors absolutely blown off by the Rams last week?  Aaron - do you have an explanation for that?  I still have no idea whatsoever how that happened.  I remain confused but I'm sticking with the Colts to beat the Titans' backup QB.

FIWK the NFL: Week 10 Picks

I don't have much to say about the lines this week, so I'm just going to highlight those that interest me.  And, sorry Aaron, but a lot of point lines have moved significantly during the week, so I'm going to point those out.

FIWK the NFL: Week 9 Picks

Week 9 picks are in the bag!  How many incorrect 'locks' am I going to decide upon this week...

FIWK the NFL: Thursday Quick Pick Week 9

Cincinnati at MIAMI -2.5
I kind of like this Cincy team.  Okay so Andy Dalton isn't the league's best QB, but he might be average and that might be enough with guys like AJ Green to throw to.  Their defense is really good (league's 4th-best by DVOA) so an average or above-average offense should help them win this.  Meanwhile I don't know what I'm getting from Miami, they confound and confuse me.  What's your take on Miami?

For what it's worth, Football Outsiders has Cincy's DVOA at +22% (4th best) and Miami's at -10% (22nd in the league).  So that's a big disparity, probably worth the less-than-2-FGs in the spread here.

FIWK the NFL: Week 8 Quick Picks

No time for commentary!  Go go go!

Dallas at DETROIT +3.0

KANSAS CITY vs. Cleveland -7.5

NEW ENGLAND vs. Miami -6.5

Buffalo at NEW ORLEANS +11.0

PHILADELPHIA vs. ny giants -5.5

San Francisco at JACKSONVILLE -16.5

CINCINNATI vs. ny jets -6.5

OAKLAND vs. Pittsburgh +2.5

DENVER vs. Washington -12.5

ARIZONA vs. Atlanta -2.5

Green Bay at MINNESOTA -9.5

ST LOUIS vs. Seattle +11.0

FIWK the NFL: Week 7 Picks

This week I've got a goal:  at least one joke for every game.  This is going to be a comedy bloodbath.

Week 7 picks here we go!

FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick: Week 7

A better matchup on paper this week.... but the Thursday games have sucked:

Seattle at ARIZONA -6.5

Seattle's not amazing on the road, but the half-point makes me feel more comfortable.  That being said, Seattle has a DVOA of +34%, while Arizona's DVOA is -2%, so I feel on solid ground with this one.  This ought to be a matchup of two good defenses and not as good offenses.  That fact makes me nervous about the 7 points.... can Seattle score enough to exceed that?  We'll see.

Actually I've just talked myself back into this game being ugly just like every other Thursday game.  Ugh.  Bet on: "ME PLAYING GRAND THEFT AUTO 5 vs. Me watching this game -10.5".  Sneaky fantasy question here.... how good is Russell Wilson actually?  He's not amazing on my fantasy team.  But if he ever gets some good receivers, like say Percy Harvin If He Stays Healthy, could he vault into an elite type QB?  Or is his ceiling just 'fantastic low-stat game winner'?

FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick - Week 5

Quick pick for Thursday night, elongated picks to follow closer to the weekend...


CLEVELAND vs. Buffalo -4.0
It feels like Cleveland should be favored by more than 4 pts at home?  After two solid weeks of making fun of Brian Hoyer, I feel like I have to take him seriously now.  It's like Cousin Sal said.... if we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times - when in doubt, trade away your best player and put in your 3rd string QB.  Always works.  Meanwhile Buffalo has been inconsistent (at best) away from home... right?

It looks like the DVOA ratings have been updated to adjust for opponents now... and Buffalo actually comes out ahead at +9.4%, while Cleveland is down at -12.1%.  Is this a big enough gap to scare me off?  Let's just say I won't be betting this game.  But part of Cleveland's rating includes the pre-Hoyer era, which really is akin to evaluating the Broncos based on the pre-Manning era.  So I'm sticking with Cleveland!

FIWK The NFL - Week 4 Picks

Nailed the SF -3.0 pick on Thurs night.  Now running through the weekend's games...

FIWK NFL Thursday Pick - Week 4

A quick pick for the Rams vs. Niners game...

San Francisco at ST. LOUIS -3.0
This is a pick based primarily on the concept that the Niners are going to right the ship.  If they lose this game, against what is certainly a decent Rams team, they are going to be in a full-on tailspin.  So this is purely an emotional call on my part - I think they are too good to fall into a crisis this early in the season.

That being said, they have real issues throwing the ball with all the injuries now.  So if they do lose, it's safe to say their expectations for the year are seriously downgraded.  What's your pick?

FIWK Thursday NFL Quick Pick - Week 3

Getting this up for the Thursday game early, then blowing out a bigger list prior to the weekend's games...

PHILADELPHIA vs. Kansas City -3.0
This is an interesting game because Kansas City is a pretty good team (and way better than last year... new QB + coach will do that).  As a Chargers fan, I wish they weren't, but unfortunately they make me really scared in the division.  That being said, I think San Diego is pretty good too and their win over the Eagles isn't exactly a referendum on the Eagles sucking.

Can Kansas City play the same kind of ball possession football that San Diego used to beat Philly?  With Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, and solid receivers, you'd think they can eat up some clock and pick up first downs.  And their defense is pretty good.

All that being said, I still think Philadelphia is really good, and since they're at home I feel comfortable taking them as a field goal favorites.  But it's not a game I'd feel comfortable putting money on.

How about you guys?

FIWK the NFL Weekly Lines - Week 1

NFL Season starts tonight!  Get pumped people!  The Chargers still aren't mathematically eliminated from playoff contention!

FIWK NFL Preview via Grantland - Prop Bets from Barnwell and Mays

As discussed on the Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays Grantland NFL Preview Podcast series, here are player props and their picks.  Further discussion at the bottom.

Ephraim Salaam standing in for Bill Barnwell in this photo

FIWK NFL Season Preview - The Simmons/Sal NFL Over/Under Picks

Here's a quick overview of the season over/under picks that Sal and Simmons did on their podcast this week.  They also put up some videos of this session, which I always enjoy.  And a bonus Joe House sighting!  It's like Christmas in my heart.

FIWK the NFL: Super Bowl

You know what? That picture feels about right. It could be two or three decades old and still perfectly illustrates all the amazing ridiculousness that accompanies the championship game of the NFL. No other championship game gets even close. Everything else feels like an extension of the regular season and playoffs. Even the conference championships feel more like normal games than the Super Bowl. I think it's because of the neutral field and I know it's because of the extra week before the game. Two weeks ago I was looking forward to watching football at home. Now, I'm looking forward to a party that happens to have a football game on at the same time. It's fun and exciting and the commercials are great. It will be good times with friends and squares. I know at one point during the game I will think to myself, "I want this team to settle for a field goal and then the next team to score a touchdown. Then in the next quarter I want them to score 0 or 10 points each." This is a different feeling that does not exist for any other game in any other sport. The Super Bowl is much, much bigger than the championship game of the NFL and yes, that is a very important distinction. I mean, look at the size of that football! And there's a guy with a jet pack!

FIWK the NFL: Week 3

Yeah, I did pretty bad last week. I guess I took my own theme of not overreacting just a little too far and ended up underreacting. (Why is overreact a word, but underreact gets the red spell check squiggly?) I may have ended up underreacting all the way back to 2009. So let's try and find a happy middle ground. Let's start considering strength of opponents. The Bills and the Lions are both 2-0, with huge point differentials. But I'm pretty sure that's more an indictment of how bad the Chiefs are (L 41-7 to the Buffalo and L 48-3 to Detroit) than an early proclamation those two teams are going to the playoffs. In fact, I kind of like Royce's early "Always pick against KC and SEA" rule. So, with just the right amount of reaction...

This week in sports: The Chargers are favored?

The Chargers are 2-4 and are dangerously close to being classified as a bad team. At the very least, they are below average. The Patriots are 4-1 and look like one of the best teams in the league (you know, if you only look at offense) and the Chargers are favored? But as I announced before, I am taking the Chargers every time. Because I'm the good kind of homer. I'm dedicated, optimistic and blinded. Here's a quick recap around the league...hell, because it's late on Friday, for a few of these games, I'll just give my pick and the predictions.

Did the Pro Bowl make you forget about the other football game?

I wanted to have an interesting thing to talk about regarding the Super Bowl. I really did. I mean, I love football and gambling and our collective love of commercials is well documented. So basically my strategy is to ramble a little and hope I come up with a not-horrible idea. Bear with me, I can feel some ideas percolating.

Weekend Comedy 1/16

This is topical humor; P-E-Y is playing this weekend. That guy's pretty good.