FIWK the NFL: Thursday Quick Pick Week 11

Indianapolis at TENNESSEE -3.0
It looks like Jake Locker is out for the season, so I have no idea why Tennessee is only getting 3.  Maybe it's because the Colts got their doors absolutely blown off by the Rams last week?  Aaron - do you have an explanation for that?  I still have no idea whatsoever how that happened.  I remain confused but I'm sticking with the Colts to beat the Titans' backup QB.

FIWK the NFL: Week 10 Picks

I don't have much to say about the lines this week, so I'm just going to highlight those that interest me.  And, sorry Aaron, but a lot of point lines have moved significantly during the week, so I'm going to point those out.

FIWK the NFL: Week 9 Picks

Week 9 picks are in the bag!  How many incorrect 'locks' am I going to decide upon this week...

FIWK the NFL: Thursday Quick Pick Week 9

Cincinnati at MIAMI -2.5
I kind of like this Cincy team.  Okay so Andy Dalton isn't the league's best QB, but he might be average and that might be enough with guys like AJ Green to throw to.  Their defense is really good (league's 4th-best by DVOA) so an average or above-average offense should help them win this.  Meanwhile I don't know what I'm getting from Miami, they confound and confuse me.  What's your take on Miami?

For what it's worth, Football Outsiders has Cincy's DVOA at +22% (4th best) and Miami's at -10% (22nd in the league).  So that's a big disparity, probably worth the less-than-2-FGs in the spread here.

FIWK the NFL: Week 8 Quick Picks

No time for commentary!  Go go go!

Dallas at DETROIT +3.0

KANSAS CITY vs. Cleveland -7.5

NEW ENGLAND vs. Miami -6.5

Buffalo at NEW ORLEANS +11.0

PHILADELPHIA vs. ny giants -5.5

San Francisco at JACKSONVILLE -16.5

CINCINNATI vs. ny jets -6.5

OAKLAND vs. Pittsburgh +2.5

DENVER vs. Washington -12.5

ARIZONA vs. Atlanta -2.5

Green Bay at MINNESOTA -9.5

ST LOUIS vs. Seattle +11.0

FIWK the NFL: Week 7 Picks

This week I've got a goal:  at least one joke for every game.  This is going to be a comedy bloodbath.

Week 7 picks here we go!

FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick: Week 7

A better matchup on paper this week.... but the Thursday games have sucked:

Seattle at ARIZONA -6.5

Seattle's not amazing on the road, but the half-point makes me feel more comfortable.  That being said, Seattle has a DVOA of +34%, while Arizona's DVOA is -2%, so I feel on solid ground with this one.  This ought to be a matchup of two good defenses and not as good offenses.  That fact makes me nervous about the 7 points.... can Seattle score enough to exceed that?  We'll see.

Actually I've just talked myself back into this game being ugly just like every other Thursday game.  Ugh.  Bet on: "ME PLAYING GRAND THEFT AUTO 5 vs. Me watching this game -10.5".  Sneaky fantasy question here.... how good is Russell Wilson actually?  He's not amazing on my fantasy team.  But if he ever gets some good receivers, like say Percy Harvin If He Stays Healthy, could he vault into an elite type QB?  Or is his ceiling just 'fantastic low-stat game winner'?

FIWK NFL Thursday Quick Pick - Week 5

Quick pick for Thursday night, elongated picks to follow closer to the weekend...


CLEVELAND vs. Buffalo -4.0
It feels like Cleveland should be favored by more than 4 pts at home?  After two solid weeks of making fun of Brian Hoyer, I feel like I have to take him seriously now.  It's like Cousin Sal said.... if we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times - when in doubt, trade away your best player and put in your 3rd string QB.  Always works.  Meanwhile Buffalo has been inconsistent (at best) away from home... right?

It looks like the DVOA ratings have been updated to adjust for opponents now... and Buffalo actually comes out ahead at +9.4%, while Cleveland is down at -12.1%.  Is this a big enough gap to scare me off?  Let's just say I won't be betting this game.  But part of Cleveland's rating includes the pre-Hoyer era, which really is akin to evaluating the Broncos based on the pre-Manning era.  So I'm sticking with Cleveland!

FIWK The NFL - Week 4 Picks

Nailed the SF -3.0 pick on Thurs night.  Now running through the weekend's games...

FIWK NFL Thursday Pick - Week 4

A quick pick for the Rams vs. Niners game...

San Francisco at ST. LOUIS -3.0
This is a pick based primarily on the concept that the Niners are going to right the ship.  If they lose this game, against what is certainly a decent Rams team, they are going to be in a full-on tailspin.  So this is purely an emotional call on my part - I think they are too good to fall into a crisis this early in the season.

That being said, they have real issues throwing the ball with all the injuries now.  So if they do lose, it's safe to say their expectations for the year are seriously downgraded.  What's your pick?

FIWK Thursday NFL Quick Pick - Week 3

Getting this up for the Thursday game early, then blowing out a bigger list prior to the weekend's games...

PHILADELPHIA vs. Kansas City -3.0
This is an interesting game because Kansas City is a pretty good team (and way better than last year... new QB + coach will do that).  As a Chargers fan, I wish they weren't, but unfortunately they make me really scared in the division.  That being said, I think San Diego is pretty good too and their win over the Eagles isn't exactly a referendum on the Eagles sucking.

Can Kansas City play the same kind of ball possession football that San Diego used to beat Philly?  With Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, and solid receivers, you'd think they can eat up some clock and pick up first downs.  And their defense is pretty good.

All that being said, I still think Philadelphia is really good, and since they're at home I feel comfortable taking them as a field goal favorites.  But it's not a game I'd feel comfortable putting money on.

How about you guys?

FIWK the NFL Weekly Lines - Week 1

NFL Season starts tonight!  Get pumped people!  The Chargers still aren't mathematically eliminated from playoff contention!