For the absolute ridiculousness it is trying to predict a winner in the Pro Bowl, I took ridiculous to a scientific level. I added up all the points scored and allowed in each conference. The NFC scored 6022 points and allowed 5889 points for a Pythagorean winning percentage of 51.3%. The AFC scored 5334 and allowed 5467 for a 48.6%. This means that on a neutral field, the NFC should win 52.7% of the time, which corresponds to a 2.5 point spread. Since the spread is 4, I am taking the AFC +4.
Showing posts with label Pro Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pro Bowl. Show all posts
FIWK the NFL: Pro Bowl
For the absolute ridiculousness it is trying to predict a winner in the Pro Bowl, I took ridiculous to a scientific level. I added up all the points scored and allowed in each conference. The NFC scored 6022 points and allowed 5889 points for a Pythagorean winning percentage of 51.3%. The AFC scored 5334 and allowed 5467 for a 48.6%. This means that on a neutral field, the NFC should win 52.7% of the time, which corresponds to a 2.5 point spread. Since the spread is 4, I am taking the AFC +4.
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FIWK the NFL: Players don't even care about the Pro Bowl
Well, that's not entirely true. They care a great deal about being named to the Pro Bowl, whether it's for a monetary bonus or the public recognition, but they don't care about playing in the Pro Bowl. Last year, the AFC leaders in passing yards were, in order, Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, David Garrard, Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez, Vince Young. Well, considering there are only 16 teams in the AFC, once you get past 8 it's kind of hard to call them "leaders". The three AFC quarterbacks that played in the Pro Bowl were Matt Schaub, Vince Young and David Garrard. Schaub I understand (with some explanation to follow), but Garrard was 8th in passing yards and Young was 13th. 13th!!! Out of sixteen teams! Now it is important to remember that Peyton Manning was busy practicing for the Super Bowl (he probably needed just a little more practice) and Philip Rivers and Tom Brady were 'injured'. So now Matt Schaub's selection makes a lot more sense. And when shrink the pool to Roethlisberger, Orton, Flacco, Garrard, Palmer, Cassell, Henne, Sanchez and Young and learn that Roethlisberger and Palmer declined an invitation as an alternate, also due to 'injury', choosing Young and Garrard over Orton, Flacco, Cassell, Henne and Sanchez doesn't seem that bad. What really sucks is that eight guys can claim to have been invited to the Pro Bowl. Half the AFC had a Pro Bowl quarterback!
In all, 84 players were on the Pro Bowl roster and an additional 32 can claim to be Pro Bowlers, but could not make it due to injury or playing in the Super Bowl. 38% of the Pro Bowl players were replacements of some sort. How are fans supposed to care if the players themselves don't care that much.
As for this year, I honestly have no idea and I may watch if there's nothing better to do. Here are the rosters. Go Philip Rivers!!!
Oh yeah, the Pro Bowl is this weekend...
Do you care about the Pro Bowl? ...you know what, if I'm home Sunday and it's on, there's a pretty good chance I'll tune in. Even with all the problems the Pro Bowl has, I still love watching NFL football.
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