NBA Preview by Bill Simmons

With his NBA Preview, two part column, Bill Simmons has set the stage for the coming NBA season. ESPN has also posted its NBA Power Rankings for the year, listing the Lakers #1 as is customary for the defending champ. Season tipoff is tomorrow, so it's time for us on FIWK to talk some NBA also.





I love everything about the NBA. It's my favorite sports league by a mile. I follow the minutiae of almost every player and every team. Fantasy basketball is like an addiction for me. If you love the NBA also, give me your predictions for the upcoming year.

Here are some random predictions by me:

Champions: Lakers again
As John Hollinger said, the Lakers won the title while getting hardly anything from Bynum and Farmar, our (yes our, I'm like Scott with the Niners) two most promising young guys. So we could conceivably get better. Of course the circus of Khlomar and Artest has already infuriated me. (True story - I wanted to find a ridiculous photo of Artest so I simply typed "Ron Artest" into Google Images, and there were so many ridiculous images just from his name I couldn't decide which to choose. This is not a vote of confidence for the Artest era.)

Other West Contenders: Spurs, Blazers, and Mavericks in that order
I think the Spurs stay healthy and I think Jefferson really helps them... people forget that Matt freaking Bonner started for that team last year. Getting Jefferson is a HUGE upgrade for them. But Manu and Tim are old enough and their team shallow enough that I don't think they can take the Lakers. The Mavs and Blazers both strike me as being better than people realize, but neither is completely stacked with firepower. The Blazers have the biggest upside and could finish second if Oden is really good and things break right (Martell shoots well, Miller doesn't have a fit, etc.).

Surprise West Team: Suns
Losing Shaq helps them, running more should release some talent that was dormant in Barbosa and (the injured) Amare last year, and nobody expects much so they should surprise some teams. My dark horse in this category is the Rockets.

Bad Surprise West Team: Jazz
Millsap and Boozer are in a weird situation, Kirlinko has fallen off the earth, Korver forgot how to shoot, their young guys aren't stepping up, and injuries are a huge concern for this team. Deron Williams is a total stud but this team is not a top tier playoff team - if they make the playoffs at all. I would have predicted the Hornets to fall off but after the way they quit in the playoffs last year, I don't think anyone expects New Orleans to succeed this year.

Best in the East: Cavs
I'm not sold on the Shaq situation, rather this is a massive vote of confidence for LeBron. People forget that this team finished with the best record in the East last year - with LeBron pulling the plough all by his lonesome - before getting bounced by the Magic because they couldn't match up. That team's other moves should help as much as Shaq... I think Parker is underrated and will really help LeBron with defensive duties on the wing. His shooting is also a big benefit. I think he'll be what they had hoped Pavlovic would become at the SG spot. Mo Williams will do even better this year with less pressure to be Robin to LeBron's Batman.

East Contenders are clearly the Celtics and Magic, I think they'll be good obviously. I predict a crazy good year for Rondo but injuries for the Celtics in general. The Magic I predict to have a slighlty down bounce-back year with Vince (who has never, ever been on a super good team), but they are still super talented.

Surprise East Teams: Bulls and Nets
I think both of these teams are underrated (well the Bulls are properly rated) and will have good years. Chicago's Derrick Rose is a stud. His team is very deep, especially by East standards. NJ's Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are very good. Their team is young and improving and will make a nice run I predict.

Bad Surprise East Team: 76ers
There is no definable reason that I think they're going to have a down year, I guess it's just a feeling. They're counting on Lou Williams to run the point, but the guy is not a real PG. They still don't have a bevy of perimeter shooters and Elton Brand hasn't been healthy in years. I like Thaddeus Young a lot but he's a very good role player, not a star to carry a team. That said Simmons likes Brand to have a comeback year and thinks the Sixers will be frisky, so who knows. The Wizards are the other team I expect to not be as good as others predict.

Worst in the League: Bucks
This is a sad sad team. Jennings won't tear it up in his first year, Bogut may or may not be healthy, and Michael Redd will quit if he isn't actively traded early in the season. What a mess.

What are your predictions in any of the above categories? Any categories you want to make up and predict in addition to these?