tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post3259141521997172350..comments2023-10-12T07:29:30.430-07:00Comments on F*ck if We Know: FIWK the NFL Weekly Lines - Week 1Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-89297723495659111482013-09-16T09:58:20.702-07:002013-09-16T09:58:20.702-07:00...snicker......snicker...Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-44771476268300250562013-09-14T20:28:41.531-07:002013-09-14T20:28:41.531-07:00Hey! Don't think that I didn't notice tha...Hey! Don't think that I didn't notice that you linked my strategy to batshitycrazy.com. How dare you.<br /><br />Just because of that, I'm going to win this thing. In your face!<br /><br />PS love that we're tracking MP. He totally kicked my butt last season.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-29392041687544506532013-09-12T14:01:05.164-07:002013-09-12T14:01:05.164-07:00Assuming Royce keeps the same strategy, I'll s...Assuming Royce keeps the same <a href="http://batshitcrazynews.com/" rel="nofollow">strategy</a>, I'll still go over 8.5.<br /><br />Agree on the "there's little value in picking 12 games at $10 a pop" theory. I wish I had a system in place to mathematically identify games w/ good value, so that I could increase my bets accordingly. But, as of now I'm just flying blind.<br /><br />We'll see how it goes!Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-54231343601587133892013-09-12T11:44:23.679-07:002013-09-12T11:44:23.679-07:00And my long comment was something about Royce'...And my long comment was something about Royce's strategy putting him bankrupt by Week 8 (Scott, o/u week 8.5 that Royce runs out of money?), but my strategy of making 12 picks was boring. I didn't feel any emotion during those games.<br /><br />I may adopt the strategy of picking fewer games and betting just a little more.Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04576218056344224419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-3541884513404841202013-09-12T11:42:20.414-07:002013-09-12T11:42:20.414-07:00San Diego +4 actually covered and I'm up $6 at...San Diego +4 actually covered and I'm up $6 at $1,006.Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04576218056344224419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-43323294532683925782013-09-11T08:06:34.785-07:002013-09-11T08:06:34.785-07:00F*ck it!
Correction Royce, you're at $890.91 ...F*ck it!<br /><br />Correction Royce, you're at $890.91 - don't sell yourself short buddy. Aaron's at $985. MP's at $1,000. I'm at $1,018.<br /><br /><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnJYbqOe0idkdHYxVTNRNmswYU9BQkdHSGx0c0pmaEE&usp=sharing" rel="nofollow">Here's the spreadsheet</a>.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-7008879125486806532013-09-10T22:46:20.310-07:002013-09-10T22:46:20.310-07:00Scott, fair enough. That's the spirit Aaron! ...Scott, fair enough. That's the spirit Aaron! Because the internet boned you, we are going with -110 by default.<br /><br />How'd you knuckleheads finish the week? I'm at $890 now.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-18551645549526323742013-09-10T16:59:58.170-07:002013-09-10T16:59:58.170-07:00I just lost a long comment, but I'm not retypi...I just lost a long comment, but I'm not retyping it. F*ck it...Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04576218056344224419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-91985866564724569832013-09-09T09:22:18.828-07:002013-09-09T09:22:18.828-07:00I argue that just like you might find a +110 pick,...I argue that just like you might find a +110 pick, you're equally as likely to find a -130 pick. Overall, I'd bet we end up with an averaged vig between -105 to -115. So, -110 it is!<br /><br />Spreadsheet updated through Sunday's games.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-1600636222602425112013-09-08T14:33:37.279-07:002013-09-08T14:33:37.279-07:00Welp, ignominious start for me... got Seattle but ...Welp, ignominious start for me... got Seattle but missed TB, Indy, and NE. So I lost $100 on the bets minus the vig, will post the actual number later.<br /><br />HOORAY FOOTBALL!! Lots of fun games so far today.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-88234303934575396172013-09-07T22:58:45.926-07:002013-09-07T22:58:45.926-07:00Making $100 bets this early in the season will onl...Making $100 bets this early in the season will only make me run out of money if I lose; OR I will just be dominating you with my sheer awesomeness.<br /><br />I am okay with the vig, although some lines you get a +110 or whatever because the vig is the other way. But we can still track it and see how it goes.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-7143577990061387922013-09-06T12:51:23.510-07:002013-09-06T12:51:23.510-07:00Why -110? I think there's value to tracking th...Why -110? I think there's value to tracking the fact that there's vig on these lines.<br /><br />Why an average vs listing actual odds? I was too tired to create that.<br /><br />The spreadsheet should be structured (from a formula standpoint) to accept as many bets as you like; assuming, of course, Google docs allows that...Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-64768907320293705212013-09-06T11:57:22.960-07:002013-09-06T11:57:22.960-07:00why are we doing -110? Do you actually want to tr...why are we doing -110? Do you actually want to track the vig as if we were making these bets in Vegas?<br /><br />My Ravens +7.5 was looking really good at halftime.<br /><br />Royce, if you keep betting $100, you'll be out of money by week 6.<br /><br />In general, this early in the season, I go really heavy on the underdogs, because we don't know who will actually be good.<br /><br />$11 on Buffalo +9.5, Cincy +3, Minnesota +5, Oakland +9.5, Atlanta +3, Tennessee +7, Arizona +4.5, Green Bay +4.5, NYG +3.5, Philly +3.5, San Diego +4.<br /><br />I might break Scott's spreadsheet by the sheer number of bets I make.Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04576218056344224419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-84933304980328942312013-09-06T11:09:49.664-07:002013-09-06T11:09:49.664-07:00Ah - thx!
Yes, your bet on the Raiders is awesome...Ah - thx!<br /><br />Yes, your bet on the Raiders is awesome...and you're going to lose.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-69085624107428539072013-09-06T11:04:52.842-07:002013-09-06T11:04:52.842-07:00PS, I fixed some of your spreadsheet calculations,...PS, I fixed some of your spreadsheet calculations, you needed to lock your "input data" cells in the front page calculations.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-76724322705206394312013-09-06T11:00:46.196-07:002013-09-06T11:00:46.196-07:00I have a solid bet on 2-to-1 odds that the Raiders...I have a solid bet on 2-to-1 odds that the Raiders have 2 wins or less. Really feel strongly about that.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-85651046818705110742013-09-06T10:28:40.018-07:002013-09-06T10:28:40.018-07:00Starting out slow cause of the new season, and I a...Starting out slow cause of the new season, and I also like round numbers, so I'll go with $22 each on:<br /><br />Seahawks -3.5: I think they want to make a statement to the league that the 'hype' is warranted.<br /><br />Bills +9.5: I don't fully trust the Pats, even though Bradicheck may be in some form of 'eff you mode'.<br /><br />Colts -9.5: I think the Raiders will end up with more than 3 wins (unlike some people i know), but I think the Colts will destroy them in this game leading to me picking against an inflated line for the Colts next week.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-32735512317069295822013-09-06T10:08:35.387-07:002013-09-06T10:08:35.387-07:00Further notes .... on the Buffalo game, sounds lik...Further notes .... on the Buffalo game, sounds like rookie EJ Manuel is in fact going to start at QB. Which makes me like them more, after all. Still sticking with my NE -9.5 pick but I feel significantly less confident about it now; that's <a href="http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/04/alot-is-better-than-you-at-everything.html" rel="nofollow">alot</a> of points.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-42970711014996893092013-09-06T10:01:23.021-07:002013-09-06T10:01:23.021-07:00Do you think the Denver D not getting that TD from...Do you think the Denver D not getting that TD from the INT is going to swing anyone's fantasy game this week? That would suck. The 1-yd line TD drop is the worst gut punch in fantasy.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-72232603318108375822013-09-06T10:00:49.558-07:002013-09-06T10:00:49.558-07:00$100 each on Seattle -3.5 and on Tampa Bay -3.5; $...$100 each on Seattle -3.5 and on Tampa Bay -3.5; $50 each on NE -9.5 and on Indy -9.5.<br /><br /><br />The Thursday night game was crazy, Peyton just singlehandedly turned every game he was involved in for fantasy. I am officially concerned about Baltimore's defense, dunno if they'll hold up at all.<br /><br />Also for fantasy purposes, Knowshon Moreno for Denver seems like the main guy. And the second WR for Baltimore, Brown, looks like a potential pickup.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-31618907367068318652013-09-06T09:58:55.984-07:002013-09-06T09:58:55.984-07:00That's good, cause Aaron's loss last night...That's good, cause Aaron's loss last night was brutal.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-5568379447950979972013-09-06T09:48:23.364-07:002013-09-06T09:48:23.364-07:00Full disclosure - all $ used are purely for funsie...Full disclosure - all $ used are purely for funsies, just to track who's the best picker. It's useful to use $ to keep track of how confident we are in bets. We are definitely NOT betting on this.Roycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09026696036192099488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-70461590182943905922013-09-05T20:19:30.412-07:002013-09-05T20:19:30.412-07:00Here's the site.Here's <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnJYbqOe0idkdHYxVTNRNmswYU9BQkdHSGx0c0pmaEE&usp=sharing" rel="nofollow">the site</a>.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-87026025831230622652013-09-05T20:09:37.545-07:002013-09-05T20:09:37.545-07:00So, to make thinks easier, I went with a generic -...So, to make thinks easier, I went with a generic -110 line for all our ATS picks. Are you OK with this?<br /><br />If not, I can update tomorrow while at work...Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2469264630957046565.post-20928657876720044192013-09-05T18:27:04.367-07:002013-09-05T18:27:04.367-07:00Not taking tonight's game, but wanted to post ...Not taking tonight's game, but wanted to post that I'm making a public google doc to track our shiftiness this year. You both have been forewarned.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613335439008713150noreply@blogger.com